Phillips 66 (PSX) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $78.6B · ISIN US7185461040
What is Phillips 66 really worth?
Phillips 66
PSX · US
A solid business, but trading 156% above our fair value of $99.41.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +23.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($149.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($75.88 to $149.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $53.89 – $256.09 · fair‑value band $75.88 – $149.74 · the $254.66 price screens above the $99.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Phillips 66 (PSX) currently trades at $254.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $99.41, implying the stock looks roughly 156.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $118.52 per share, and 0 of the 22 models we run sit above the $254.66 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $29.03, and 22 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Phillips 66 generated revenue of $134B at a net margin of 3.1%. Revenue grew 6.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.6%. Net debt stands at $21.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $75.88 (bear case) to $149.74 (bull case); at $254.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 130% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −61%, PSX screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.38 per share, which is 3.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($118.52) versus Earnings-Based ($29.03). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 92
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels.
Full company description
Phillips 66 operates as an integrated downstream energy provider in the United States, the United Kingdom, Germany, and internationally. It operates through five segments: Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties (M&S), and Renewable Fuels. The Midstream segment provides crude oil and refined petroleum product transportation, terminaling, and storage services, as well as natural gas and natural gas liquids (NGL) gathering, processing, transportation, fractionation, storage and marketing services. It also exports liquefied petroleum gas. The Chemicals segment produces and markets ethylene and other olefin products; aromatics and styrenics products, such as benzene, cyclohexane, styrene, and polystyrene; various specialty chemical products, including organosulfur chemicals, solvents, catalysts, and chemicals used in drilling and mining; and petrochemicals and plastics. The Refining segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks into petroleum products, such as gasolines and distillates, including aviation fuels. The M&S segment purchases for resale and markets refined products, including gasolines, distillates, and aviation fuels. This segment also manufactures and markets specialty products, such as automotive, commercial, industrial, and specialty lubricants, as well as base oils. The Renewable Fuels segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable products, as well as supplies sustainable aviation fuel. This segment also procures renewable feedstocks, manages certain regulatory credits, and markets renewable diesel, renewable jet fuel, and other renewable fuels. The company markets its products under the Phillips 66, Conoco and 76, JET, Kendall, Red Line, and other private label brands. Phillips 66 was founded in 1875 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Phillips 66 reported revenue of $132B in FY2025 versus $112B in FY2021, a compound +4.2%/yr. Reported net income was $4.4B in FY2025, compounding +35.3%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
of which total revenue +3.8 % · buybacks/dilution +2.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PSX screens 156% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 54/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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