Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $82.8B · ISIN US56585A1025
What is Marathon Petroleum Corp really worth?
Marathon Petroleum Corp
MPC · US
A solid business, but trading 191% above our fair value of $133.18.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price +24.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($209.24). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($74.68 to $209.24). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $45.19 – $387.71 · fair‑value band $74.68 – $209.24 · the $387.71 price screens above the $133.18 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Marathon Petroleum Corp (MPC) currently trades at $387.71, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $133.18, implying the stock looks roughly 191.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $160.95 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $387.71 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $39.74, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Marathon Petroleum Corp generated revenue of $136B at a net margin of 3.4%. Revenue grew 8.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.5%. Net debt stands at $30.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $74.68 (bear case) to $209.24 (bull case); at $387.71, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 150% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −59% fair-value upside, at −66%, MPC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $7.63 per share, which is 5.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($160.95) versus Asset-Based ($39.74). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 93
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel.
Full company description
Marathon Petroleum Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an integrated downstream energy company in the United States. The company operates through three segments: Refining & Marketing; Midstream; and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment refines crude oil and other feedstocks at its refineries in the Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and West Coast regions of the United States; and purchases refined products and ethanol for resale and distributes refined products through transportation, storage, distribution, and marketing services. Its refined products include transportation fuels, such as reformulated gasolines and blend-grade gasolines; heavy fuel oil; and asphalt. This segment also manufactures propane and petrochemicals. The company sells refined products to wholesale marketing customers in the United States and internationally, buyers on the spot market, and independent entrepreneurs who operate primarily Marathon branded outlets, as well as through long-term fuel supply contracts to direct dealer locations primarily under the ARCO brand. The Midstream segment gathers, transports, stores, distributes, and markets crude oil and refined products, including renewable diesel and other hydrocarbon-based products through refining logistics assets, pipelines, terminals, towboats, and barges; gathers, processes, and transports natural gas; and transports, fractionates, stores, and markets natural gas liquids. The Renewable Diesel segment processes renewable feedstocks into renewable diesel, markets, and distributes renewable diesel through its Midstream segment and third parties. It sells renewable diesel to wholesale marketing customers, buyers on the spot market, and through long-term supply contracts to direct dealers under the ARCO brand. Marathon Petroleum Corporation was founded in 1887 and is headquartered in Findlay, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Marathon Petroleum Corp reported revenue of $133B in FY2025 versus $120B in FY2021, a compound +2.6%/yr. Reported net income was $4.0B in FY2025, compounding −19.7%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.8 % · buybacks/dilution +5.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MPC screens 191% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| HF Sinclair Corporation DINO | $87.93 | $44.96 | −49% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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