HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) Fair Value & Analysis
Energy · US · Market cap $15.7B · ISIN US4039491000
What is HF Sinclair Corp really worth?
HF Sinclair Corp
DINO · US
A solid business, but trading 136% above our fair value of $44.96.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $48.90 to $44.96 (−8.1%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price +20.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($56.21). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (63/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $23.39 – $106.15 · fair‑value band $36.53 – $56.21 · the $106.15 price screens above the $44.96 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 4 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
HF Sinclair Corp (DINO) currently trades at $106.15, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $44.96, implying the stock looks roughly 136.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Energy sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of $80.46 per share, and 3 of the 26 models we run sit above the $106.15 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $33.58, and 23 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, HF Sinclair Corp generated revenue of $27.6B at a net margin of 4.5%. Revenue grew 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.0%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $36.53 (bear case) to $56.21 (bull case); at $106.15, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 200% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Energy peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at −58%, DINO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.33 per share, which is 7.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF ($80.46) versus Dividend Discount ($33.58). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 61 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 90
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream.
Full company description
HF Sinclair Corporation operates as an independent energy company in the United States. It operates through five segments: Refining, Renewables, Marketing, Lubricants & Specialties, and Midstream. The company produces and markets gasoline, diesel fuel, jet fuel, renewable diesel, specialty lubricant products, specialty chemicals, commodity and modified asphalt products, and others. It also owns and operates refineries located in Kansas, Oklahoma, New Mexico, Wyoming, Washington, and Utah, as well as markets its refined products principally in the Southwest United States and Rocky Mountains, Pacific Northwest, and in other neighboring Plains states. In addition, the company supplies fuels to 1,700 branded stations and licenses the use of the Sinclair brand at approximately 350 additional locations, as well as provision of other marketing activities. Further, the company produces base oils and other specialized lubricants; and provides petroleum product and crude oil transportation, terminalling, storage, and throughput services to the petroleum sector. Additionally, it offers hydrocarbon chemicals, including white oils, petrolatums, and waxes. The company also exports its products. HF Sinclair Corporation was incorporated in 1947 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
HF Sinclair Corp reported revenue of $26.9B in FY2025 versus $18.4B in FY2021, a compound +9.9%/yr. Reported net income was $579M in FY2025, compounding +0.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DINO screens 136% overvalued. Compare with Reliance Industries Limited →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Zacks.com featured highlights include Match Group, Amkor Technology and HF Sinclair
- HF Sinclair Plans Lubricants Spin-Off: Is it a Value-Unlocking Move?
- Why Is HF Sinclair (DINO) Up 7.2% Since Last Earnings Report?
Peer Group
Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Reliance Industries Limited RELIANCE | ₹1,314 | ₹835.66 | −36% |
| Valero Energy Corporation VLO | $352.36 | $127.32 | −64% |
| Marathon Petroleum Corporation MPC | $368.83 | $133.18 | −64% |
| Phillips 66 PSX | $246.58 | $99.41 | −60% |
| Neste Oyj NESTE | €31.28 | €3.83 | −88% |
| Formosa Petrochemical Corporation 6505 | 75.80 TWD | 15.32 TWD | −80% |
| Bharat Petroleum Corporation BPCL | ₹318.00 | ₹846.81 | +166% |
| SK Innovation Co 096770 | 131,500 KRW | 53,541 KRW | −59% |
| Sunoco LP, SUN | $75.55 | $53.36 | −29% |
| S-Oil Corporation 010950 | 140,900 KRW | 19,441 KRW | −86% |
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