Vale S.A. (XVALO) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · ES · Market cap €53.5B · ISIN BRVALEACNOR0
What is Vale S.A. really worth?
A solid business, but trading 98% above our fair value of €6.62.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from €7.67 to €6.62 (−13.7%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +1.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€8.56). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €7.41 – €14.94 · fair‑value band €5.51 – €8.56 · the €13.08 price screens above the €6.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
Vale S.A. (XVALO) currently trades at €13.08, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €6.62, implying the stock looks roughly 97.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €10.05 per share, and 6 of the 23 models we run sit above the €13.08 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at €4.91, and 17 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Revenue grew 2.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.8%. Net debt stands at €12.0B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 22.9. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.51 (bear case) to €8.56 (bull case); at €13.08, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 72% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −49%, XVALO screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€10.05) versus Earnings-Based (€4.91). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (78).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 69
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals.
Full company description
Vale S.A., together with its subsidiaries, produces iron ore and nickel in Brazil, Asia, the Middle East, North Africa, Europe, the Americas, and Oceania. The company operates in two segments, Iron Ore Solutions and Vale Base Metals. It extracts, produces, and distributes iron ore, iron ore pellets, briquettes, nickel, copper, other ferrous products, and by-products, including gold, silver, cobalt, platinum-group metals, and other base metals, as well as low-carbon critical minerals. The company also operates logistics systems and distribution centers, such as mining complexes, railways, and maritime terminals, ports, and ships; generates energy from hydroelectric, solar, and wind sources; and engages in greenfield mineral exploration. In addition, it is involved in research; and trading activities. The company was formerly known as Companhia Vale do Rio Doce and changed its name to Vale S.A. in May 2009. Vale S.A. was founded in 1942 and is headquartered in Rio De Janeiro, Brazil.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Vale S.A. reported revenue of $38.9B in FY2025 versus $54.5B in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was $2.5B in FY2025, compounding +225.4%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.
XVALO screens 98% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Vale Q2 Earnings Call Spotlights Copper Growth and Cost Reset
- Compared to Estimates, VALE (VALE) Q2 Earnings: A Look at Key Metrics
- Vale Gears Up to Report Q2 Earnings: Here's What to Expect
- VALE S.A. (VALE) is Attracting Investor Attention: Here is What You Should Know
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 469 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHP | A$66.84 | A$42.16 | −37% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $15.31 | $8.95 | −42% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 65.50 SAR | 33.87 SAR | −48% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥18.42 | ¥16.15 | −12% |
| Teck Resources Limited TECK | $69.34 | $32.02 | −54% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹573.00 | ₹508.34 | −11% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥66.76 | ¥9.55 | −86% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | −74% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥37.85 | ¥25.99 | −31% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | −13% |
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