Grupo México, S.A. (GMEXICOB) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · MX · Market cap 1.6T MXN
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from 187.72 MXN to 172.99 MXN (−7.8%) since Jul 13, 2026. Share price +9.9% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 22% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range (99.53 MXN to 229.06 MXN) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 53.14 MXN – 222.38 MXN · fair‑value band 99.53 MXN – 229.06 MXN · the 222.38 MXN price screens above the 172.99 MXN fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Grupo México, S.A. (GMEXICOB) currently trades at 222.38 MXN, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 172.99 MXN, implying the stock looks roughly 22.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Grupo México, S.A. generated revenue of 19.5B MXN at a net margin of 29.0%. Revenue grew 32.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 25.7%. Net debt stands at 586M MXN. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from 99.53 MXN (bear case) to 229.06 MXN (bull case); at 222.38 MXN, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 122% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at -40% fair-value upside, at -22%, GMEXICOB screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (12.47 MXN) versus Asset-Based (2.00 MXN). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 70 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. produces copper worldwide. It operates through Mining, Transportation, and Infrastructure divisions. The Mining division is involved in the operation of underground and open pit mines, smelters, refineries, and other plants. This division also provides copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc, sulfuric acid, gold, and selenium products.
Full company description
Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. produces copper worldwide. It operates through Mining, Transportation, and Infrastructure divisions. The Mining division is involved in the operation of underground and open pit mines, smelters, refineries, and other plants. This division also provides copper, silver, molybdenum, zinc, sulfuric acid, gold, and selenium products. The Transportation division offers general and intermodal freight services by rail, passenger services, as well as auxiliary management services for terminals and intra-terminal hauls; and ground transportation and warehousing. The Infrastructure division engages in building infrastructure and industrial plants, and ocean and land drilling; provision of engineering services, drilling services for oil and water exploration, and energy production services; construction of infrastructure works, project engineering services; operation and highway conservation; real estate project development, and construction and administration of shopping centers. In addition, it is involved in operation of cycle plants and wind farm; generation of energy; and oil transportation. Grupo México, S.A.B. de C.V. was founded in 1890 and is headquartered in Mexico City, Mexico.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Grupo México, S.A. reported revenue of 18.2B MXN in FY2025 versus 14.8B MXN in FY2021, a compound +5.3%/yr. Reported net income was 4.9B MXN in FY2025, compounding +6.2%/yr from FY2021.
GMEXICOB screens 22% overvalued. Compare with BHP Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Grupo México (BMV:GMEXICO B) Stock Sees Modest Fair Value Lift As Analysts Raise Targets
- Attention Grupo Mexico / Southern Copper Corporation's investors on the lack of remediation of the 2014 toxic spill in the Sonora and Bacanu
- Are Conglomerates Stocks Lagging Grupo Mexico, S.A.B. de C.V. (GMBXF) This Year?
Peer Group
Other Industrial Metals & Mining · 480 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Other Industrial Metals & Mining median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Other Industrial Metals & Mining stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| BHP Group BHPN | 1,425 MXN | 745.46 MXN | -48% |
| Rio Tinto Group RIO | A$179.43 | A$81.76 | -54% |
| Vale S.A VALE | $14.89 | $8.95 | -40% |
| Saudi Arabian Mining Company 1211 | 58.05 SAR | 33.87 SAR | -42% |
| CMOC Group 603993 | ¥19.00 | ¥19.80 | +4% |
| China Tungsten And Hightech Materials Co 000657 | ¥70.43 | ¥9.55 | -86% |
| Hindustan Zinc Limited HINDZINC | ₹584.60 | ₹501.98 | -14% |
| China Northern Rare Earth (Group) High-Tech Co 600111 | ¥41.02 | ¥10.59 | -74% |
| Boliden AB BOL | kr 527.80 | kr 461.48 | -13% |
| Western Mining Co 601168 | ¥38.36 | ¥25.99 | -32% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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