Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $1.8B · ISIN US0207641061
What is Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc really worth?
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc
AMR · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 141% above our fair value of $90.30.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $45.15 to $90.30 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +54.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($105.66). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (48/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $18.45 – $442.21 · fair‑value band $81.08 – $105.66 · the $217.18 price screens above the $90.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 2 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc (AMR) currently trades at $217.18, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $90.30, implying the stock looks roughly 140.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $81.44 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the $217.18 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $42.80, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc generated revenue of $2.1B at a net margin of −1.8%. Revenue declined 1.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of −2.5%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $343M. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $81.08 (bear case) to $105.66 (bull case); at $217.18, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 123% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −58%, AMR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($81.44) versus Dividend Discount ($0.2700). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (82).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 47 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc.
Full company description
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc., a mining company, produces, processes, and sells met and thermal coal in Virginia and West Virginia. The company provides metallurgical coal products. It operates nineteen active mines and eight active coal preparation and load-out facilities. The company was formerly known as Contura Energy, Inc. and changed its name to Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. in February 2021. Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 2016 and is headquartered in Bristol, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Alpha Metallurgical Resources Inc reported revenue of $2.1B in FY2025 versus $2.3B in FY2021, a compound −1.5%/yr. Reported net income was −$61.7M in FY2025.
AMR screens 141% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources Director Courtis Buys Again, This Time $3.2 Million in Shares. Is it Time for Investors to Buy Too?
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources Director Courtis Buys $2.9 Million Shares. What Does This Mean for Investors?
- Alpha Metallurgical (AMR) Weathers A Rough Quarter On Multiple Fronts
- Alpha Metallurgical Resources (AMR) Is Up 10.8% After Lowering 2026 Shipment Guidance Amid Terminal Disruptions
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 27 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,710 IDR | 969.03 IDR | −43% |
| Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC | $108.26 | $18.35 | −83% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.62 | ¥1.24 | −66% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.68 | HK$2.34 | −13% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.59 | ¥1.75 | −51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.50 | ¥1.72 | −69% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.66 | ¥1.32 | −50% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $9.14 | $3.67 | −60% |
| Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 | ¥7.35 | ¥6.29 | −14% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $14.24 | $1.80 | −87% |
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