Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) Fair Value & Analysis
Basic Materials · US · Market cap $5.6B · ISIN US93627C1018
What is Warrior Met Coal Inc really worth?
Warrior Met Coal Inc
HCC · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 181% above our fair value of $36.70.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 28, 2026
From 14 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 28, 2026, revised from $18.35 to $36.70 (+100.0%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +26.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($45.88). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (39/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $14.70 – $110.18 · fair‑value band $27.52 – $45.88 · the $103.27 price screens above the $36.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 28, 2026.
Analysis
Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) currently trades at $103.27, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $36.70, implying the stock looks roughly 181.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of $27.17 per share, and 0 of the 14 models we run sit above the $103.27 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.10, and 14 of the 14 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Warrior Met Coal Inc generated revenue of $1.5B at a net margin of 9.3%. Revenue grew 54.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 6.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $29.0M. Fundamentals as of Aug 28, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $27.52 (bear case) to $45.88 (bull case); at $103.27, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 154% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −51% fair-value upside, at −64%, HCC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.52 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 14 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based ($27.17) versus Dividend Discount ($4.10). Highest evidence: EPV (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 28, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 41 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 73
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production.
Full company description
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. engages in the production and export of non-thermal steelmaking coal for the steel production by metal manufacturers in Europe, South America, and Asia. It offers hard-coking coal through the operation of underground mines located in Alabama. The company also sells natural gas extracted as a byproduct from coal production. Warrior Met Coal, Inc. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Brookwood, Alabama.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Warrior Met Coal Inc reported revenue of $1.3B in FY2025 versus $1.1B in FY2021, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $57.0M in FY2025, compounding −21.6%/yr from FY2021.
HCC screens 181% overvalued. Compare with PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Is Up 15.8% After Boosting 2026 Sales Outlook On Blue Creek Demand – Has The Bull Case Changed?
- Warrior Met Coal (HCC) Stock Looks Cheap On Cash Flow But Pricey On Earnings
- Warrior Met Coal Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- Warrior Met Coal Inc (HCC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Sales and Margin ...
Peer Group
Coking Coal · 27 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 28, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR | 1,710 IDR | 969.03 IDR | −43% |
| Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 | ¥3.62 | ¥1.24 | −66% |
| Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR | $226.23 | $45.15 | −80% |
| Shougang Fushan Resources Group 0639 | HK$2.68 | HK$2.34 | −13% |
| Shanxi Coking Co 600740 | ¥3.59 | ¥1.75 | −51% |
| Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 | ¥5.50 | ¥1.72 | −69% |
| Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 | ¥2.66 | ¥1.32 | −50% |
| SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC | $9.14 | $3.67 | −60% |
| Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 | ¥7.35 | ¥6.29 | −14% |
| Ramaco Resources, Inc METC | $14.24 | $1.80 | −87% |
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