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Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd (0639) Fair Value & Analysis

Basic Materials · HK · Market cap HK$11.0B (≈ $1.4B) · ISIN HK0639031506

What is Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd really worth?

SF Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd 0639 · HK
PriceHK$2.98
Fair ValueHK$3.07
Upside+3.1%
Quality58/100

A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of HK$3.07.

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Strengths

✓Solidly profitable · 12.5% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (11/14)

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y +4.8 %/yr)
!Narrow moat 35/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 16 out of 100

For context

·9.06% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$3.07 – HK$3.47

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$2.34 to HK$3.07 (+31.3%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +28.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$3.07). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
  • The models converge in a tight band (HK$3.07 to HK$3.47), unusually little disagreement for a valuation.
  • Evidence is limited here (fewer models, shorter history), so the fair value is a rougher estimate than usual.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$3.45 HK$1.08 Fair Value HK$3.07 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.08 – HK$3.45 · fair‑value band HK$3.07 – HK$3.47 · the HK$2.98 price screens below the HK$3.07 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd (0639) currently trades at HK$2.98, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$3.07, implying the stock looks roughly 3.0% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Basic Materials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$5.35 per share, and 16 of the 24 models we run sit above the HK$2.98 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at HK$2.11, and 8 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$5.1B at a net margin of 12.5%. Revenue grew 13.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 4.0%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$6.6B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$3.07 (bear case) to HK$3.47 (bull case); at HK$2.98, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 45% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Basic Materials peers we cover trades at −60% fair-value upside, at 3%, 0639 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV HK$2.01 HK$2.15 HK$2.28 74
FCF DCF HK$3.23 HK$4.43 HK$8.26 73
Growth DCF HK$3.10 HK$5.05 HK$8.23 72
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$3.23 HK$4.43 HK$8.26 73
Owner Earnings HK$3.87 HK$7.37 HK$14.71 68
5Y Revenue Exit HK$2.55 HK$3.51 HK$5.53 68
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.24 HK$4.90 HK$8.17 69
5Y P/E Exit HK$2.90 HK$4.99 HK$7.82 65
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.72 HK$4.46 HK$5.52 64
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$3.27 HK$5.94 HK$10.60 62
10Y P/E Exit HK$3.03 HK$5.22 HK$8.79 58
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$0.8400 HK$5.89 HK$8.27 59
Lynch FV HK$3.04 HK$4.35 HK$5.65 57
PEG = 1.0 HK$3.04 HK$4.35 HK$5.65 54
EPV HK$2.01 HK$2.15 HK$2.28 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$1.58 HK$2.11 HK$2.64 63
P/S Multiple HK$1.12 HK$1.49 HK$1.86 58
P/B Multiple HK$1.58 HK$2.11 HK$2.64 55
EV/EBIT HK$2.70 HK$3.22 HK$3.74 66
EV/EBITDA HK$3.16 HK$3.83 HK$4.51 67
EV/Revenue HK$2.17 HK$2.62 HK$3.07 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$1.61 HK$2.16 HK$3.23 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$3.10 HK$5.05 HK$8.23 72
Rev-Margin DCF HK$2.69 HK$3.86 HK$6.30 67
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$2.40 HK$2.36 HK$2.11 72
ROIC Compounder HK$2.01 HK$2.15 HK$2.28 68
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$3.74 HK$5.35 HK$6.95 64

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$5.35) versus Multiples (HK$2.11). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 18.0 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 2.25 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.0800 price ÷ EPS = P/E 18.0
Dividend yield 9.1%
Net margin 12.5% FY2025
Return on equity 4.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 12.5% avg 5y
Operating margin 7.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$5.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +13.5% 3y avg −14.9%
EPS growth (YoY) −65.2%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$634M FY2025
Net cash HK$6.6B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 59 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 26
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 17
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 62
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 95
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 91
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 65
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 32
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 53
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 67
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in coking coal mining and the production and sale of coking coal products in the People's Republic of China.

Full company description

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in coking coal mining and the production and sale of coking coal products in the People's Republic of China. The company owns and operates the Xingwu coal mine covering an area of approximately 11.6 square kilometers, the Jinjiazhuang coal mine covering an area of approximately 6.08 square kilometers, and the Zhaiyadi coal mine covering an area of approximately 13.9 square kilometers located in the Liulin County, Shanxi Province. It primarily serves steel manufacturers. The company was formerly known as Fushan International Energy Group Limited and changed its name to Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited in May 2011. Shougang Fushan Resources Group Limited was incorporated in 1985 and is based in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$5.1B in FY2025 versus HK$7.1B in FY2021, a compound −8.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$632M in FY2025, compounding −29.3%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$5.1B
Latest YoY
+0.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+4.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (25Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+35.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−1.3% (−10.4 + 9.1)
Revenue −8.1%/yr
FY21 HK$7.1B
FY22 HK$8.2B
FY23 HK$5.9B
FY24 HK$5.1B
FY25 HK$5.1B
Net income −29.3%/yr
FY21 HK$2.5B
FY22 HK$2.7B
FY23 HK$1.9B
FY24 HK$1.5B
FY25 HK$632M

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0639

Peer Group

Coking Coal · 27 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside +3% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Top 25%
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 8% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 14% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 9.1% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.06× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Coking Coal median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 18.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.67× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 2.18× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 2.2× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 4.0× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE37 · sector 0
FUTURE68 · sector 17
PAST16 · sector 0
HEALTH97 · sector 97
DIVIDEND100 · sector 20

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Coal

Similar stocks

10 more Coking Coal stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
PT Alamtri Minerals Indonesia Tbk, ADMR 1,710 IDR 969.03 IDR −43%
Warrior Met Coal, Inc HCC $108.26 $18.35 −83%
Shanxi Meijin Energy Co 000723 ¥3.62 ¥1.24 −66%
Alpha Metallurgical Resources, Inc AMR $226.23 $45.15 −80%
Shanxi Coking Co 600740 ¥3.59 ¥1.75 −51%
Kailuan Energy Chemical Co 600997 ¥5.50 ¥1.72 −69%
Baotailong New Materials Co 601011 ¥2.66 ¥1.32 −50%
SunCoke Energy, Inc SXC $9.14 $3.67 −60%
Shandong Jinling Mining Co 000655 ¥7.35 ¥6.29 −14%
Ramaco Resources, Inc METC $14.24 $1.80 −87%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd (0639) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$3.07 versus a price of HK$2.98, about +3% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of 0639?
Our model-based fair value for Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd is HK$3.07 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$2.98.
What is the quality score of 0639?
Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd (0639)?
Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$5.1B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0639?
The net profit margin of Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd is about 12.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 12.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd pay a dividend?
Shougang Fushan Resources Group Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 9.06% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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