Astellas Pharma Inc (ALPMY) Fair Value & Analysis
Healthcare · US · Market cap $23.8B · ISIN US04623U1025
What is Astellas Pharma Inc really worth?
Astellas Pharma Inc
ALPMY · US
A solid business, trading 43% below our fair value of $27.23.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 30, 2026, revised from $27.67 to $27.23 (−1.6%) since Aug 27, 2026. Share price +12.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The rarer combination: high quality (74/100) AND below fair value. That earns a closer look rather than a quick verdict.
- The price is below even our cautious bear case ($17.94). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
- A fairly wide model range ($17.94 to $37.69) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $8.26 – $16.77 · fair‑value band $17.94 – $37.69 · the $15.48 price screens below the $27.23 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Astellas Pharma Inc (ALPMY) currently trades at $15.48, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $27.23, implying the stock looks roughly 43.1% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 74/100 (solid quality), in the Healthcare sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $31.87 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $15.48 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $5.40, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Astellas Pharma Inc generated revenue of $2.1T at a net margin of 13.6%. Revenue grew 20.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.4%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $35.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $17.94 (bear case) to $37.69 (bull case); at $15.48, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Healthcare peers we cover trades at −18% fair-value upside, at 76%, ALPMY screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($31.87) versus Asset-Based ($5.40). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 73 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 74
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Astellas Pharma Inc. manufactures, markets, imports, and exports pharmaceuticals in Japan and internationally. The company offers XTANDI, a treatment for prostate cancer; XOSPATA, a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia; VYLOY, a treatment for gastric cancer; and PADCEV, a treatment for patients with metastatic urothelial cancer.
Full company description
Astellas Pharma Inc. manufactures, markets, imports, and exports pharmaceuticals in Japan and internationally. The company offers XTANDI, a treatment for prostate cancer; XOSPATA, a treatment for acute myeloid leukemia; VYLOY, a treatment for gastric cancer; and PADCEV, a treatment for patients with metastatic urothelial cancer. It also provides VEOZAH, a treatment for vasomotor symptoms due to menopause; IZERVAY, a treatment for geographic atrophy secondary to age-related macular degeneration; EVRENZO, a treatment for anemia associated with chronic kidney disease; Betanis/Myrabetriq/BETMIGA, a treatment for overactive bladder; and Prograf, an immunosuppressant. It has a research collaboration with xFOREST Therapeutics to develop RNA-targeted therapies and a partnership agreement with Roche Diabetes Care Japan Co., Ltd. to develop and commercialize an integrated diabetes self-management solution. It offers its products to oncology, ophthalmology, urology, immunology, and women's health areas. The company was formerly known as Yamanouchi Pharmaceutical Co. Ltd. and changed its name to Astellas Pharma Inc. in April 2005. Astellas Pharma Inc. was founded in 1923 and is headquartered in Chuo, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Astellas Pharma Inc reported revenue of ¥2.3T in FY2026 versus ¥1.3T in FY2022, a compound +15.0%/yr. Reported net income was ¥309B in FY2026, compounding +25.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +4.4 % · buybacks/dilution +2.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Drug Manufacturers - General · 75 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Drug Manufacturers - General median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Drug Manufacturers - General stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eli Lilly and Company LLY | $1,176 | $389.47 | −67% |
| Johnson & Johnson, JNJ | $265.77 | $169.04 | −36% |
| AbbVie Inc ABBV | $258.15 | $67.72 | −74% |
| Roche Holding RO | CHF 374.60 | CHF 306.54 | −18% |
| Merck & Co MRK | €131.98 | €101.38 | −23% |
| Novartis AG NOVN | CHF 123.74 | CHF 114.90 | −7% |
| Novo Nordisk A/S NOVOB | kr 295.50 | kr 409.46 | +39% |
| Amgen Inc AMGN | $436.99 | $252.02 | −42% |
| Gilead Sciences, Inc GILD | $148.86 | $146.50 | −2% |
| Pfizer Inc PFE | $28.02 | $24.87 | −11% |
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