Alstom S.A. (ALO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €7.3B · ISIN FR0010220475
What is Alstom S.A. really worth?
Below-average quality, and trading another 14% above our fair value of €14.53.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −0.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range (€9.18 to €21.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €10.09 – €33.91 · fair‑value band €9.18 – €21.19 · the €16.50 price screens above the €14.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Alstom S.A. (ALO) currently trades at €16.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.53, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €15.52 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the €16.50 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.10, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Alstom S.A. generated revenue of €19.2B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at €2.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €9.18 (bear case) to €21.19 (bull case); at €16.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −12%, ALO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2597 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€15.52) versus Dividend Discount (€1.09). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.
Full company description
Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Alstom S.A. reported revenue of €19.2B in FY2026 versus €15.5B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €324M in FY2026.
of which total revenue +11.5 % · buybacks/dilution −5.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ALO screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- ALSTOM S.A: Alstom to provide 25 additional X’trapolis 2.0 trains in Australia for €270m
- ALSTOM S.A: Update on the AMF investigation opened in 2021/22
- Alstom S.A.: Alstom and its partners reach financial close for Israel’s Haifa-Nazareth light rail project
- Alstom (ENXTPA:ALO) Stock Looks Cheap On Earnings But Pricey On Broader Checks
Peer Group
Railroads · 111 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Union Pacific Corporation UNP | $307.41 | $141.29 | −54% |
| CSX Corporation CSX | $48.99 | $12.62 | −74% |
| Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP | $94.12 | $34.33 | −64% |
| Canadian National Railway Company CNR | C$175.06 | C$92.68 | −47% |
| Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC | $332.96 | $114.36 | −66% |
| Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB | $297.57 | $144.80 | −51% |
| Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 | ¥4.87 | ¥5.65 | +16% |
| MTR Corporation 0066 | HK$32.04 | HK$17.85 | −44% |
| CRRC Corporation 601766 | ¥5.98 | ¥9.53 | +59% |
| Daqin Railway Co 601006 | ¥4.72 | ¥6.22 | +32% |
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