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Alstom S.A. (ALO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FR · Market cap €7.3B · ISIN FR0010220475

What is Alstom S.A. really worth?

AS Alstom S.A. ALO · PA
Price€16.50
Fair Value€14.53
Upside−11.9%
Quality39/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 14% above our fair value of €14.53.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +16.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 1.7% net margin
!Trails peers (5/15)
!Narrow moat 31/100
!Weak on valuation: 17 out of 100
!Weak on future: 21 out of 100
!Weak on past: 14 out of 100
Evidence: High Range €9.18 – €21.19

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −0.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range (€9.18 to €21.19) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€33.91 €10.09 Fair Value €14.53 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €10.09 – €33.91 · fair‑value band €9.18 – €21.19 · the €16.50 price screens above the €14.53 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 3 fiscal years are left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Alstom S.A. (ALO) currently trades at €16.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €14.53, implying the stock looks roughly 13.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 39/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €15.52 per share, and 8 of the 25 models we run sit above the €16.50 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at €11.10, and 17 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Alstom S.A. generated revenue of €19.2B at a net margin of 1.7%. Revenue grew 4.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.4%. Net debt stands at €2.0B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €9.18 (bear case) to €21.19 (bull case); at €16.50, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −12%, ALO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.2597 per share, which is 1.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence €7.95 €11.26 €15.89 81
Growth DCF €8.11 €11.10 €15.09 79
Owner Earnings €13.47 €19.28 €27.43 77
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence €7.95 €11.26 €15.89 81
Owner Earnings €13.47 €19.28 €27.43 77
5Y Revenue Exit €11.53 €18.42 €27.08 72
5Y EBITDA Exit €21.01 €35.59 €52.31 74
5Y P/E Exit €9.48 €14.70 €20.01 71
10Y Revenue Exit €9.70 €15.52 €23.07 66
10Y EBITDA Exit €15.92 €26.98 €41.34 67
10Y P/E Exit €8.83 €13.04 €17.94 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €4.76 €12.53 €16.36 65
PEG = 1.0 €2.40 €3.43 €4.46 57
EPV €10.04 €11.52 €12.79 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €0.7200 €1.41 €2.18 66
DDM Multi-Stage €0.7200 €1.09 €1.48 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €11.03 €14.71 €18.38 63
P/S Multiple €8.93 €11.91 €14.88 58
P/B Multiple €8.93 €11.91 €14.88 55
EV/EBIT €19.95 €26.37 €32.79 66
EV/EBITDA €32.55 €43.17 €53.80 67
EV/Revenue €14.44 €20.33 €26.22 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €10.71 €14.36 €21.43 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €8.11 €11.10 €15.09 79
Rev-Margin DCF €11.53 €18.39 €25.89 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income €15.33 €14.74 €12.30 76
ROIC Compounder €10.04 €11.52 €12.79 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €8.63 €12.33 €16.03 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€15.52) versus Dividend Discount (€1.09). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.6 as of May 31, 2026
P/S ratio 0.48 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €0.6000 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.6
Dividend yield 0.5% payout 13.2%
Net margin 1.7% FY2026
Return on equity 3.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 1.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 3.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €19.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +4.1% 3y avg +5.1%
EPS growth (YoY) −29.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €324M FY2026
Net debt €2.0B FY2026 · ≈ 6.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 39/100

Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 27

Profitability 22
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 38
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 34
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 45
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 13
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 17
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa.

Full company description

Alstom SA provides solutions for rail transport industry in Europe, the Americas, the Asia Pacific, the Middle East, Central Asia, and Africa. The company offers rolling stock solutions comprising people movers and monorails, light rails, metros, commuter and regional trains, high-speed trains, and locomotives; asset optimization, connectivity, and security and city mobility solutions; and signaling products, such as urban, mainline, and freight and mining signaling. It also provides APM, monorail, tram, metro, and main line systems; and tracklaying and track, catenary free and ground feeding, electrification, cybersecurity, and engineering consultancy solutions, as well as electromechanical equipment. In addition, the company offers rail maintenance, modernization, overhaul, parts, repair and overhauls, and support services. Further, it provides various components, including bogies, motors, dampers, brake friction products, switchgears, traction and auxiliary converters, transformers, green traction solutions, interiors, and train control and information systems. The company offers its products and solutions to original equipment manufacturers, operators, and asset owners. Alstom SA was founded in 1928 and is based in Saint-Ouen, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Alstom S.A. reported revenue of €19.2B in FY2026 versus €15.5B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was €324M in FY2026.

Growth Quality 85/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
€19.2B
Latest YoY
+3.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (28Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.9%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−12.7% (−13.2 + 0.5)
Revenue +5.5%/yr
FY22 €15.5B
FY23 €16.5B
FY24 €17.6B
FY25 €18.5B
FY26 €19.2B
Net income
FY22 −€576M
FY23 −€128M
FY24 −€309M
FY25 €149M
FY26 €324M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2016-2026) −24.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.9 %

of which total revenue +11.5 % · buybacks/dilution −5.9 %

EBIT margin −4.5 %
Tax rate −4.7 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −20.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ALO screens 14% overvalued. Compare with Union Pacific Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Alstom S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ALO

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 39 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −12% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 3% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (TTM) 2% · Bottom 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Revenue growth 4% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.5% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.6× · Pricier than median
P/B 0.85× · Cheaper than median
P/S (TTM) 0.44× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 26.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 7.0× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.53× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE17 · sector 20
FUTURE21 · sector 20
PAST14 · sector 29
HEALTH90 · sector 91
DIVIDEND10 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $307.41 $141.29 −54%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $94.12 $34.33 −64%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$175.06 C$92.68 −47%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Alstom S.A. (ALO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €14.53 versus a price of €16.50, about −12% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ALO?
Our model-based fair value for Alstom S.A. is €14.53 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €16.50.
What is the quality score of ALO?
Alstom S.A. has a Quality Score of 39/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Alstom S.A. (ALO)?
Alstom S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €19.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ALO?
The net profit margin of Alstom S.A. is about 1.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 1.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Alstom S.A. pay a dividend?
Alstom S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.48% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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