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BYD Company Limited (81211) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.0T (≈ $130B)

What is BYD Company Limited really worth?

BC BYD Company Limited 81211 · HK
PriceHK$73.50
Fair ValueHK$48.59
Upside−33.9%
Quality33/100

Below-average quality, and trading another 51% above our fair value of HK$48.59.

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Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +38.4 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.5% net margin
!Low debt · negative free cash flow
!Trails peers (5/14)
!Narrow moat 32/100
!Weak on dividend: 28 out of 100
Evidence: High Range HK$36.44 – HK$72.72

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 16 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$50.85 to HK$48.59 (−4.4%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −8.9% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • A fairly wide model range (HK$36.44 to HK$72.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.

Price vs Fair Value (3 years)

HK$137.47 HK$48.98 Fair Value HK$48.59 Jun 2023 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

39‑month range HK$48.98 – HK$137.47 · fair‑value band HK$36.44 – HK$72.72 · the HK$73.50 price screens above the HK$48.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

BYD Company Limited (81211) currently trades at HK$73.50, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$48.59, implying the stock looks roughly 51.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of HK$77.24 per share, and 3 of the 16 models we run sit above the HK$73.50 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at HK$10.93, and 13 of the 16 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, BYD Company Limited generated revenue of HK$784B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at HK$89.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$36.44 (bear case) to HK$72.72 (bull case); at HK$73.50, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 41% below its 52-week high and 19% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −34%, 81211 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$2.06 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
EPV best evidence HK$11.86 HK$13.95 HK$15.81 74
ROIC Compounder HK$11.86 HK$13.95 HK$15.81 72
Residual Income HK$16.30 HK$21.11 HK$54.48 68
All 16 models by family
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$15.91 HK$110.94 HK$155.69 63
Lynch FV HK$41.48 HK$59.26 HK$77.03 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$41.48 HK$59.26 HK$77.03 57
EPV best evidence HK$11.86 HK$13.95 HK$15.81 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$10.01 HK$21.85 HK$36.77 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$10.01 HK$17.90 HK$22.77 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$38.60 HK$51.47 HK$64.33 63
P/S Multiple HK$29.83 HK$39.77 HK$49.71 58
P/B Multiple HK$29.83 HK$39.77 HK$49.71 55
EV/EBIT HK$21.81 HK$29.06 HK$36.32 66
EV/EBITDA HK$66.53 HK$88.69 HK$110.85 67
EV/Revenue HK$14.71 HK$21.00 HK$27.29 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$8.16 HK$10.93 HK$16.32 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$16.30 HK$21.11 HK$54.48 68
ROIC Compounder HK$11.86 HK$13.95 HK$15.81 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$54.07 HK$77.24 HK$100.41 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$77.24) versus Asset-Based (HK$10.93). Highest evidence: EPV (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 34.8 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 1.43 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$3.05 price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.8
Dividend yield 1.4% payout 34.3%
Net margin 4.1% FY2025
Return on equity 11.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.1% avg 5y
Operating margin 4.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$784B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) −11.8% 3y avg +23.3%
EPS growth (YoY) −56.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow −HK$97.3B FY2025
Net debt HK$89.9B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 33/100

Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 34

Profitability 41
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 27
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 31
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 49
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 1
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 75
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 22
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 9
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 59
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

BYD Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in automobiles and batteries business in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products; and Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products.

Full company description

BYD Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in automobiles and batteries business in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products; and Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products. The Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products segment manufactures and sells mobile handset components, such as housings and electronic components, and provides assembly services. Its Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products segment is involved in the manufacturing and sale of automobiles, and auto-related molds and components; provision of automobile leasing and after sales services, automobile power batteries, lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic, and iron battery products; and rail transport and related business. The company develops urban rail transportation business. BYD Company Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

BYD Company Limited reported revenue of 794B CNY in FY2025 versus 216B CNY in FY2021, a compound +38.4%/yr. Reported net income was 32.6B CNY in FY2025, compounding +80.9%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 52/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$794B
Latest YoY
+2.2%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+23.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+38.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+29.0%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+60.6% (59.2 + 1.4)
Revenue +38.4%/yr
FY21 216B CNY
FY22 424B CNY
FY23 602B CNY
FY24 777B CNY
FY25 794B CNY
Net income +80.9%/yr
FY21 3.0B CNY
FY22 16.6B CNY
FY23 30.0B CNY
FY24 40.3B CNY
FY25 32.6B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2025) +27.0 % p.a.
Revenue per share +25.6 %

of which total revenue +27.5 % · buybacks/dilution −1.5 %

EBIT margin +0.5 %
Tax rate +0.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

81211 screens 51% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →

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BYD Company Limited · Fair Value
HK$48.59 −51%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "BYD Company Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/81211

Peer Group

Auto Manufacturers · 115 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 33 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −30% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 11% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Above median
Revenue growth −12% · Bottom 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.4% · Below median
Debt / equity 0.33× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 34.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 4.49× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.30× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 9.2× · Pricier than median
PEG 0.61× · Cheaper than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 24
FUTURE0 · sector 27
PAST45 · sector 22
HEALTH84 · sector 94
DIVIDEND28 · sector 51

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Toyota Motor Corporation TM $191.84 $247.83 +29%
BYD Company 002594 ¥92.32 ¥61.43 −33%
Hyundai Motor Company 005380 418,500 KRW 567,393 KRW +36%
Ferrari N.V RACE €355.50 €167.67 −53%
General Motors Company GM $86.27 $52.69 −39%
Ford Motor Company F $13.88 $11.51 −17%
Mercedes-Benz Group MBG €46.95 €106.16 +126%
Dr. Ing. h.c. F. Porsche AG P911 €43.91 €17.34 −61%
Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI ₹12,694 ₹8,236 −35%
Volkswagen AG VOW3 €77.42 €248.34 +221%

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Frequently asked questions

Is BYD Company Limited (81211) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$48.59 versus a price of HK$73.50, about −34% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 81211?
Our model-based fair value for BYD Company Limited is HK$48.59 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$73.50.
What is the quality score of 81211?
BYD Company Limited has a Quality Score of 33/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of BYD Company Limited (81211)?
BYD Company Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$784B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 81211?
The net profit margin of BYD Company Limited is about 3.5%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.5% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does BYD Company Limited pay a dividend?
BYD Company Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.42% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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