BYD Company (81211) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.0T
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 16 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$50.85 to HK$48.59 (−4.4%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price +1.0% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 36% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$72.72). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (33/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range (HK$36.44 to HK$72.72) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
38‑month range HK$48.98 – HK$137.47 · fair‑value band HK$36.44 – HK$72.72 · the HK$76.00 price screens above the HK$48.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
BYD Company (81211) currently trades at HK$76.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$48.59, implying the stock looks roughly 36.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 33/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, BYD Company generated revenue of HK$784B at a net margin of 3.5%. Revenue declined 11.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 11.2%. Net debt stands at HK$89.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$36.44 (bear case) to HK$72.72 (bull case); at HK$76.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 39% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at 32% fair-value upside, at -36%, 81211 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 16 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$80.19) versus Asset-Based (HK$11.35). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 37 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
BYD Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in automobiles and batteries business in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products; and Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products.
Full company description
BYD Company Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in automobiles and batteries business in the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan, and internationally. It operates in two segments, Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products; and Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products. The Mobile Handset Components, Assembly Service and Other Products segment manufactures and sells mobile handset components, such as housings and electronic components, and provides assembly services. Its Automobiles and Related Products and Other Products segment is involved in the manufacturing and sale of automobiles, and auto-related molds and components; provision of automobile leasing and after sales services, automobile power batteries, lithium-ion batteries, photovoltaic, and iron battery products; and rail transport and related business. The company develops urban rail transportation business. BYD Company Limited was founded in 1994 and is headquartered in Shenzhen, China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
BYD Company reported revenue of HK$794B in FY2025 versus HK$216B in FY2021, a compound +38.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$32.6B in FY2025, compounding +80.9%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +27.5 pp · buybacks/dilution −1.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
81211 screens 36% overvalued. Compare with Toyota Motor Corporation →
Peer Group
Auto Manufacturers · 119 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Auto Manufacturers median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Auto Manufacturers stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Toyota Motor Corporation TM | $188.22 | $247.83 | +32% |
| Hyundai Motor Company 005380 | 418,500 KRW | 567,393 KRW | +36% |
| Bayerische Motoren Werke Aktiengesellschaft BMWM5N | 1,909 MXN | 2,610 MXN | +37% |
| Ford Motor Company F | C$11.72 | C$3.70 | -68% |
| Volkswagen AG VOW | 2,149 CZK | 7,783 CZK | +262% |
| Maruti Suzuki India Limited MARUTI | ₹13,875 | ₹8,236 | -41% |
| Kia Corporation 000270 | 135,600 KRW | 341,751 KRW | +152% |
| Weichai Power Co 2338 | HK$36.40 | HK$28.46 | -22% |
| Geely Automobile Holdings 80175 | HK$15.50 | HK$19.14 | +23% |
| Bajaj Auto Limited BAJAJAUTO | ₹11,700 | ₹4,574 | -61% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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