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CRRC Corp Ltd (1766) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$131B (≈ $16.6B) · ISIN CNE100000BG0

What is CRRC Corp Ltd really worth?

CC CRRC Corp Ltd 1766 · HK
PriceHK$5.37
Fair ValueHK$8.99
Upside+67.4%
Quality55/100

A solid business, trading 40% below our fair value of HK$8.99.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +3.1 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Ranks above peers (13/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 4.9% net margin
!Narrow moat 34/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain

For context

·4.94% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range HK$6.63 – HK$11.48

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.98 to HK$8.99 (+0.1%) since Aug 5, 2026. Share price +3.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.63). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$6.43 HK$1.97 Fair Value HK$8.99 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$1.97 – HK$6.43 · fair‑value band HK$6.63 – HK$11.48 · the HK$5.37 price screens below the HK$8.99 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

CRRC Corp Ltd (1766) currently trades at HK$5.37, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.99, implying the stock looks roughly 40.3% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of HK$12.25 per share, and 21 of the 26 models we run sit above the HK$5.37 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$3.67, and 5 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, CRRC Corp Ltd generated revenue of HK$278B at a net margin of 4.9%. Revenue grew 10.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.0%. Net debt stands at HK$28.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.63 (bear case) to HK$11.48 (bull case); at HK$5.37, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 18% below its 52-week high and 21% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at 67%, 1766 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.1411 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence HK$8.74 HK$12.93 HK$19.59 80
Growth DCF HK$8.80 HK$12.92 HK$19.45 78
Owner Earnings HK$7.27 HK$10.53 HK$15.72 76
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence HK$8.74 HK$12.93 HK$19.59 80
Owner Earnings HK$7.27 HK$10.53 HK$15.72 76
5Y Revenue Exit HK$7.28 HK$10.31 HK$14.21 73
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$9.07 HK$13.76 HK$19.35 75
5Y P/E Exit HK$8.54 HK$12.75 HK$17.26 71
10Y Revenue Exit HK$7.59 HK$10.53 HK$14.58 67
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$8.89 HK$12.97 HK$18.62 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$8.55 HK$12.25 HK$16.98 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.04 HK$10.90 HK$14.69 64
Lynch FV HK$2.57 HK$3.67 HK$4.78 61
PEG = 1.0 HK$2.57 HK$3.67 HK$4.78 57
EPV HK$6.13 HK$6.80 HK$7.39 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$2.86 HK$5.95 HK$9.44 66
DDM Multi-Stage HK$2.86 HK$5.02 HK$6.25 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$7.05 HK$9.40 HK$11.74 63
P/S Multiple HK$5.70 HK$7.61 HK$9.51 58
P/B Multiple HK$5.70 HK$7.61 HK$9.51 55
EV/EBIT HK$8.54 HK$10.69 HK$12.84 66
EV/EBITDA HK$10.04 HK$12.68 HK$15.33 67
EV/Revenue HK$6.70 HK$8.67 HK$10.64 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$3.00 HK$4.02 HK$6.00 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$8.80 HK$12.92 HK$19.45 78
Rev-Margin DCF HK$7.28 HK$10.33 HK$13.97 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$4.97 HK$5.29 HK$5.77 76
ROIC Compounder HK$6.18 HK$7.39 HK$9.07 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$4.91 HK$7.02 HK$9.13 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$12.25) versus Earnings-Based (HK$3.67). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 8.4 as of Jul 2, 2026
P/S ratio 0.41 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.4728 price ÷ EPS = P/E 8.4
Dividend yield 4.9% payout 56.1%
Net margin 4.8% FY2025
Return on equity 8.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 3.2% avg 5y
Operating margin 9.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$278B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +10.6% 3y avg +5.9%
EPS growth (YoY) +9.1%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$16.1B FY2025
Net debt HK$28.7B FY2025 · ≈ 1.8 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 49

Profitability 28
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 42
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 56
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 78
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 86
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 35
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 32
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 82
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

CRRC Corporation Limited, with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, designing, manufacturing, refurbishment, sale, leasing, and technical servicing of railway locomotives in Mainland China and internationally.

Full company description

CRRC Corporation Limited, with its subsidiaries, engages in the research and development, designing, manufacturing, refurbishment, sale, leasing, and technical servicing of railway locomotives in Mainland China and internationally. It provides rolling stock, including electric and diesel locomotives, trains, EMU, DMU, trams and rail vehicles, metro cars, LRVs, coaches, wagons, and track machinery; components, such as motors, electric control equipment, locomotive components, vehicle components, and casting and forging; and other products comprising trucks, buses, construction machineries, turnouts, wind turbines, and intelligent machines. The company also offers MUs, urban rail transit vehicles, engineering machinery, various electromechanical equipment, electronic equipment and components, electric devices, and environmental protection equipment, as well as sales, technical services, and equipment leasing of related products. In addition, it provides information consultation, industry investment and management, and asset management services; and engages in the import and export, software development, logistics and trading, and financing activities. The company was formerly known as CSR Corporation Limited and changed its name to CRRC Corporation Limited in June 2015. CRRC Corporation Limited was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Beijing, the People's Republic of China. CRRC Corporation Limited operates as a subsidiary of CRRC GROUP Co., Ltd.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

CRRC Corp Ltd reported revenue of 265B CNY in FY2025 versus 226B CNY in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was 12.8B CNY in FY2025, compounding +5.7%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$265B
Latest YoY
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (20Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.7%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+7.4% (2.5 + 4.9)
Revenue +4.1%/yr
FY21 226B CNY
FY22 223B CNY
FY23 234B CNY
FY24 246B CNY
FY25 265B CNY
Net income +5.7%/yr
FY21 10.3B CNY
FY22 11.7B CNY
FY23 11.7B CNY
FY24 12.4B CNY
FY25 12.8B CNY
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +2.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.1 %

of which total revenue +2.6 % · buybacks/dilution −0.5 %

EBIT margin −0.2 %
Tax rate +0.9 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "CRRC Corp Ltd Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/1766

Peer Group

Railroads · 111 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +53% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 8% · Above median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 9% · Above median
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.9% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.04× · Lower than median

Valuation Multiples vs Railroads median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 8.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.76× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.47× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 1.0× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA 2.8× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
PEG 0.54× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE100 · sector 20
FUTURE53 · sector 20
PAST32 · sector 29
HEALTH98 · sector 91
DIVIDEND99 · sector 45

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Railroads stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Union Pacific Corporation UNP $307.41 $141.29 −54%
CSX Corporation CSX $48.99 $12.62 −74%
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Limited CP $94.12 $34.33 −64%
Canadian National Railway Company CNR C$175.06 C$92.68 −47%
Norfolk Southern Corporation NSC $332.96 $114.36 −66%
Westinghouse Air Brake Technologies Corporation WAB $297.57 $144.80 −51%
Beijing-Shanghai High-Speed Railway Co 601816 ¥4.87 ¥5.65 +16%
MTR Corporation 0066 HK$32.04 HK$17.85 −44%
CRRC Corporation 601766 ¥5.98 ¥9.53 +59%
Daqin Railway Co 601006 ¥4.72 ¥6.22 +32%

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Frequently asked questions

Is CRRC Corp Ltd (1766) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.99 versus a price of HK$5.37, about +67% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 1766?
Our model-based fair value for CRRC Corp Ltd is HK$8.99 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$5.37.
What is the quality score of 1766?
CRRC Corp Ltd has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of CRRC Corp Ltd (1766)?
CRRC Corp Ltd reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$278B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 1766?
The net profit margin of CRRC Corp Ltd is about 4.9%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.9% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does CRRC Corp Ltd pay a dividend?
CRRC Corp Ltd currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.94% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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