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China Gas Holdings (0384) Fair Value & Analysis

Utilities · HK · Market cap HK$28.2B

CG China Gas Holdings 0384 · HK
PriceHK$5.58
Fair ValueHK$8.90
Upside+59.6%
Quality48/100
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Weak Growth
Thin margins · 3.7% net margin
Moderate debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
Narrow moat 36/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$6.34 – HK$11.12 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$8.48 to HK$8.90 (+4.9%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price −0.3% over the past month.

Below-average quality, screening 60% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (HK$6.34). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (48/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$27.52 HK$5.18 Fair Value HK$8.90 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$5.18 – HK$27.52 · fair‑value band HK$6.34 – HK$11.12 · the HK$5.58 price screens below the HK$8.90 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

China Gas Holdings (0384) currently trades at HK$5.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$8.90, implying the stock looks roughly 59.6% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 48/100 (below-average quality), in the Utilities sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, China Gas Holdings generated revenue of HK$73.6B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 11.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.6%. Net debt stands at HK$54.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$6.34 (bear case) to HK$11.12 (bull case); at HK$5.58, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 8% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Utilities peers we cover trades at 2% fair-value upside, at 60%, 0384 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$0.2200 HK$4.64 HK$13.56 80
Residual Income HK$8.08 HK$8.23 HK$7.88 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.20 HK$14.81 HK$33.99 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF HK$0.5500 HK$3.67 HK$13.64 38
Owner Earnings — HK$2.04 HK$10.21 31
5Y Revenue Exit HK$4.20 HK$12.35 HK$29.42 39
5Y EBITDA Exit HK$5.56 HK$15.11 HK$33.79 41
5Y P/E Exit HK$1.64 HK$10.03 HK$21.49 38
10Y Revenue Exit HK$2.86 HK$15.23 HK$24.58 36
10Y EBITDA Exit HK$4.28 HK$18.12 HK$44.01 37
10Y P/E Exit HK$1.42 HK$9.77 HK$24.16 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$3.39 HK$23.67 HK$33.21 54
Lynch FV HK$8.59 HK$12.27 HK$15.95 50
PEG = 1.0 HK$8.59 HK$12.27 HK$15.95 46
EPV HK$2.88 HK$4.17 HK$5.31 59
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$4.45 HK$9.24 HK$14.66 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$4.45 HK$7.79 HK$9.70 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$6.74 HK$8.98 HK$11.23 63
P/S Multiple HK$6.36 HK$8.48 HK$10.61 58
P/B Multiple HK$6.36 HK$8.48 HK$10.61 55
EV/EBIT HK$6.80 HK$10.70 HK$14.61 53
EV/EBITDA HK$7.05 HK$11.03 HK$15.02 54
EV/Revenue HK$4.56 HK$8.62 HK$12.68 43
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$5.25 HK$7.03 HK$10.49 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$0.2200 HK$4.64 HK$13.56 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.20 HK$14.81 HK$33.99 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$8.08 HK$8.23 HK$7.88 76
ROIC Compounder HK$2.88 HK$4.17 HK$5.31 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E HK$10.45 HK$14.93 HK$19.41 68

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (HK$14.93) versus Economic Profit (HK$4.17). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$73.6B
Revenue growth (YoY) -11.4%
Net margin 3.7%
Return on equity 5.6%
Free cash flow HK$1.8B FY2025
P/E ratio 10.4 as of Jul 1, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 6.9%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.2500
EPS growth (YoY) -7.4%
Net debt HK$54.1B FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 48/100

Of which business quality 45 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 25

Profitability 24
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 41
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 29
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 92
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 69
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 7
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 6
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 81
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

China Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an energy supplier and service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Sales of Natural Gas; Engineering Design, Construction and Installation; Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG); Value-Added Services; and Other Businesses segments.

Full company description

China Gas Holdings Limited, an investment holding company, operates as an energy supplier and service provider in the People's Republic of China. It operates through Sales of Natural Gas; Engineering Design, Construction and Installation; Sales of Liquefied Petroleum Gas (LPG); Value-Added Services; and Other Businesses segments. The company invests in, constructs, and operates city and town gas pipelines, gas terminals, storage and transportation facilities, and gas logistics systems; delivers natural gas and LPG to residential, industrial, and commercial users; builds and operates compressed natural gas/liquefied natural gas fueling stations for vehicles; and develops technologies related to natural gas and LPG. It is also involved in the investment in petrochemical facilities of storage and transportation; producing, storing, and selling of LPG and chemical products, as well as propane and butane; CBM business; exploration and production of coal bed methane; and gas station administration services. In addition, the company offers treasury, management, consultancy, and procurement services; and engages in wholesale and retail of household equipment, electric appliances, kitchen appliances, and others. Further, it is involved in the development and investment in clean energy; wholesale and trading of natural gas and liquefied natural gas; and sale of electricity, as well as invests in construction of city gas pipeline network, petrochemical, and natural gas projects. Additionally, the company engages in the distribution of heating; securities investment; software development and consulting; and provision of construction services, as well as rental and inspection services for safety production. China Gas Holdings Limited was incorporated in 1995 and is headquartered in Wan Chai, Hong Kong.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

China Gas Holdings reported revenue of HK$73.6B in FY2026 versus HK$88.2B in FY2022, a compound −4.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.7B in FY2026, compounding −22.8%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
HK$73.6B
Latest YoY
−7.1%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−7.2%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+1.0%
Avg. growth/yr (26Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+40.3%
Revenue −4.4%/yr
FY22 HK$88.2B
FY23 HK$92.0B
FY24 HK$81.4B
FY25 HK$79.3B
FY26 HK$73.6B
Net income −22.8%/yr
FY22 HK$7.7B
FY23 HK$4.3B
FY24 HK$3.2B
FY25 HK$3.3B
FY26 HK$2.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) −1.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.9 pp

of which total revenue +10.8 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.9 pp

EBIT margin −7.5 pp
Tax rate +0.0 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) −3.9 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

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China Gas Holdings · Fair Value
HK$8.90 +60%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "China Gas Holdings Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0384

Peer Group

Utilities - Regulated Gas · 104 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside +60% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 6% · Below median
Return on assets 2% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 7% · Below median
Revenue growth -11% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.69× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Utilities - Regulated Gas median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 10.4× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/B 0.49× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.38× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/FCF 2.0× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 6.4× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 27
FUTURE 0 · sector 0
PAST 22 · sector 34
HEALTH 66 · sector 87
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 67

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

Similar stocks

10 more Utilities - Regulated Gas stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Naturgy Energy Group NTGY €28.94 €31.58 +9%
Atmos Energy Corporation ATO $169.59 $85.67 -49%
NiSource Inc NI $42.01 $28.59 -32%
Uniper SE UN0 €47.45 €48.32 +2%
The Hong Kong and China Gas Company 0003 HK$6.76 HK$4.79 -29%
GAIL (India) Limited GAIL ₹177.95 ₹130.21 -27%
Adani Total Gas Limited ATGL ₹660.35 ₹101.36 -85%
ENN Natural Gas Co 600803 ¥17.32 ¥25.71 +48%
ENN Energy Holdings 2688 HK$47.16 HK$107.98 +129%
China Suntien Green Energy Corporation 600956 ¥7.26 ¥7.37 +2%

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Frequently asked questions

Is China Gas Holdings (0384) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$8.90 versus a price of HK$5.58, about +60% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 0384?
Our model-based fair value for China Gas Holdings is HK$8.90 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$5.58.
What is the quality score of 0384?
China Gas Holdings has a Quality Score of 48/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of China Gas Holdings (0384)?
China Gas Holdings reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$73.6B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0384?
The net profit margin of China Gas Holdings is about 3.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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