Guoco Group Ltd (0053) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$22.0B (≈ $2.8B) · ISIN BMG420981224
What is Guoco Group Ltd really worth?
A solid business, but trading 120% above our fair value of HK$32.77.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 12 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$26.53 to HK$32.77 (+23.5%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +1.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$40.96). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$46.67 – HK$105.37 · fair‑value band HK$24.58 – HK$40.96 · the HK$72.00 price screens above the HK$32.77 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Guoco Group Ltd (0053) currently trades at HK$72.00, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$32.77, implying the stock looks roughly 119.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of HK$326.75 per share, and 4 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$72.00 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$15.85, and 8 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Guoco Group Ltd generated revenue of HK$3.0B at a net margin of 18.2%. Revenue declined 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 5.1%. Net debt stands at HK$2.9B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$24.58 (bear case) to HK$40.96 (bull case); at HK$72.00, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 9% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −54%, 0053 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly HK$0.6800 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 12 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth DCF (HK$326.75) versus Earnings-Based (HK$15.85). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses.
Full company description
Guoco Group Limited, an investment holding company, engages in the principal investment, property development and investment, hospitality and leisure, and financial service businesses. The company offers debt, equity, and direct investments; treasury operations; and investment advisory and management services with trading and strategic investments in global capital markets. It also develops residential and commercial properties; holds properties for rental; owns, leases, or manages hotels under the Clermont and Thistle brands; operates gaming and leisure businesses; and holds casino and other gaming licences, and concession. In addition, the company provides commercial, consumer, Islamic, and investment banking services; and life and general insurance, Takaful insurance, fund management and unit trust, corporate advisory, and stock broking services. Further, it offers royalty entitlement of Bass Strait's oil and gas production; manufactures, markets, and distributes health products; operates car parks and oil palm estate; owns hotel assets; develops and maintains online gaming software; distributes limited risks; processes credit transfers; provides general management, property management and maintenance, marketing, consultancy, and training services, as well as support services for interactive gaming; and engages in investment trading, social club, apiculture, and financing and securities investment activities. It operates in Hong Kong, Mainland China, the United Kingdom, Continental Europe, Singapore, Australasia, and internationally. The company was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Guoco Group Limited operates as a subsidiary of Guoline Overseas Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Guoco Group Ltd reported revenue of HK$3.1B in FY2025 versus HK$1.3B in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was HK$513M in FY2025, compounding +12.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +1.0 % · buybacks/dilution +0.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0053 screens 120% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 375 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| 3M Company MMM | $178.83 | $76.87 | −57% |
| Honeywell International Inc HON | $217.43 | $218.95 | +1% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$13.02 | HK$26.04 | +100% |
| Poste Italiane S.p.A PST | €26.90 | €7.65 | −72% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$106.30 | HK$36.88 | −65% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,800 IDR | 9,600 IDR | +100% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $59.10 | $79.11 | +34% |
| Kingboard Holdings 0148 | HK$45.52 | HK$32.91 | −28% |
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