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ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU19) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · TH · Market cap 3.0T THB

IC ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 · BK
Price7.20 THB
Fair Value14.40 THB
Upside+100.0%
Quality55/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 6.0% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Moderate moat 53/100
Evidence: Medium Range 9.14 THB – 21.81 THB Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026

From 10 valuation models · updated today

Share price +7.5% over the past month.

A solid business, screening 100% undervalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price is below even our cautious bear case (9.14 THB). The market is more pessimistic than our downside scenario.
  • Solid quality (55/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
  • A fairly wide model range (9.14 THB to 21.81 THB) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
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Price vs Fair Value (11 months)

7.78 THB 5.95 THB Fair Value 14.40 THB Sep 2025 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year. As of Aug 14, 2026.

How to read this chart

11‑month range 5.95 THB – 7.78 THB · fair‑value band 9.14 THB – 21.81 THB · the 7.20 THB price screens below the 14.40 THB fair value. As of Aug 14, 2026.

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Analysis

ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU19) currently trades at 7.20 THB, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 14.40 THB, implying the stock looks roughly 100.0% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 55/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: medium), always confirm before acting.

Over the trailing twelve months, ITOCHU Corporation generated revenue of 15.1T THB at a net margin of 6.0%. Revenue grew 8.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.1%. Net debt stands at ¥3.1T. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026

Our scenario range runs from 9.14 THB (bear case) to 21.81 THB (bull case); at 7.20 THB, the current price sits below that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -8% fair-value upside, at 100%, ITOCHU19 screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF 16.84 THB 24.94 THB 39.95 THB 80
Residual Income 15.43 THB 19.72 THB 49.90 THB 76
Rev-Margin DCF 11.19 THB 18.35 THB 27.47 THB 74
All 10 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings 21.65 THB 32.07 THB 53.05 THB 31
5Y P/E Exit 20.84 THB 34.36 THB 50.66 THB 38
10Y P/E Exit 18.81 THB 29.68 THB 40.87 THB 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd 14.60 THB 24.60 THB 29.96 THB 54
Multiples
P/E Multiple 33.81 THB 45.08 THB 56.35 THB 63
P/B Multiple 27.37 THB 36.49 THB 45.62 THB 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) 7.86 THB 10.53 THB 15.71 THB 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF 16.84 THB 24.94 THB 39.95 THB 80
Rev-Margin DCF 11.19 THB 18.35 THB 27.47 THB 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income 15.43 THB 19.72 THB 49.90 THB 76

Widest divergence: Multiples (36.49 THB) versus Asset-Based (10.53 THB). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) 15.1T THB
Revenue growth (YoY) +8.9%
Net margin 6.0%
Return on equity 14.1%
Free cash flow ¥847B FY2026
P/E ratio 16.0
More key figures
Operating margin 5.3%
EPS (TTM) 0.4500 THB
EPS growth (YoY) +4.8%
Net debt ¥3.1T FY2026

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 55/100

Of which business quality 53 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 59

Profitability 44
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 32
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 47
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 44
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 68
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 59
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 95
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th.

Full company description

ITOCHU Corporation trades and imports/exports various products worldwide.It operates through eight segments: Textile, Machinery, Metals & Minerals, Energy & Chemicals, Food, General Products & Realty, ICT & Financial Business, and The 8th. The company produces and sells raw materials, threads, and textiles; and garments, home furnishings, and industrial materials. It also engages in the plants, bridges, railways, and other infrastructure; power generation, transmission, transformation, and electricity sale; water, environment and waste-related; trading of ships, aircraft, automobiles, construction and industrial machinery, machine tools, environmental equipment, electronic devices, and related equipment; renewable and alternative energy; and waste recycling businesses. In addition, the company develops metal and mineral resource; processes steel products; trades iron ore, coal, pig iron and ferrous raw materials, non-ferrous and light metals, steel products, nuclear fuels, and greenhouse gas emissions; and waste treatment activities. Further, it trades in energy, chemical, and power including renewable energy; produces and distributes food; and develops new business fields and cultivates new partners. The company also engages in pulp and paper, natural rubber, building products and materials, tire and automotive aftermarket related, and logistics business; development, sales, lease, and operation of real estate; IT solutions, internet-related services, business process outsourcing, medical and healthcare, satellite, content, and distribution of mobile phone devices and after-sales services; and financial and insurance services. The company was founded in 1858 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2023 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

ITOCHU Corporation reported revenue of ¥14.8T in FY2026 versus ¥13.9T in FY2023, a compound +2.1%/yr. Reported net income was ¥900B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2023.

Growth Quality 62/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
14.8T THB
Latest YoY
+0.7%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.1%
Revenue +2.1%/yr
FY23 ¥13.9T
FY24 ¥14.0T
FY25 ¥14.7T
FY26 ¥14.8T
Net income +4.0%/yr
FY23 ¥801B
FY24 ¥802B
FY25 ¥880B
FY26 ¥900B

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "ITOCHU Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ITOCHU19

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 385 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 55 · Above median
Fair Value upside +100% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Above median
Net margin (TTM) 6% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 5% · Below median
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.0% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.44× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 16.0× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.20× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.96× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 0.1× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.46× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 100 · sector 27
FUTURE 45 · sector 17
PAST 56 · sector 18
HEALTH 78 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 0 · sector 39

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU19) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 14, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 14.40 THB versus a price of 7.20 THB, about +100% (undervalued).
What is the fair value of ITOCHU19?
Our model-based fair value for ITOCHU Corporation is 14.40 THB (as of Aug 14, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is 7.20 THB.
What is the quality score of ITOCHU19?
ITOCHU Corporation has a Quality Score of 55/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of ITOCHU Corporation (ITOCHU19)?
ITOCHU Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 15.1T THB (latest available figure, as of Aug 14, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ITOCHU19?
The net profit margin of ITOCHU Corporation is about 6.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 6.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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