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Swire Pacific A (0019) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$296B (≈ $37.8B) · ISIN HK0019000162

What is Swire Pacific A really worth?

SP Swire Pacific A 0019 · HK
PriceHK$106.30
Fair ValueHK$35.70
Upside−66.4%
Quality58/100

A solid business, but trading 198% above our fair value of HK$35.70.

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Strengths

Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Mixed Growth (revenue 5y +2.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 3.3% net margin
!Narrow moat 33/100
!Weak on future: 27 out of 100
!Weak on past: 4 out of 100

For context

·3.20% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range HK$26.77 – HK$44.62

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated today

Share price +10.3% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$44.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$106.30 HK$27.22 Fair Value HK$35.70 Apr 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$27.22 – HK$106.30 · fair‑value band HK$26.77 – HK$44.62 · the HK$106.30 price screens above the HK$35.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Swire Pacific A (0019) currently trades at HK$106.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$35.70, implying the stock looks roughly 197.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Asset-Based group reads highest at a median of HK$62.37 per share, and 0 of the 12 models we run sit above the HK$106.30 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at HK$6.22, and 12 of the 12 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Pacific A generated revenue of HK$90.5B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at HK$75.1B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$26.77 (bear case) to HK$44.62 (bull case); at HK$106.30, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 75% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −66%, 0019 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$21.51 HK$40.80 HK$69.54 76
Residual Income HK$65.28 HK$62.05 HK$46.96 76
Owner Earnings HK$3.12 73
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$3.12 73
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.79 HK$27.00 HK$42.59 68
10Y P/E Exit HK$14.55 HK$28.46 HK$44.85 62
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$7.16 HK$20.91 HK$27.63 65
Lynch FV HK$4.35 HK$6.22 HK$8.08 61
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$15.88 HK$34.66 HK$58.32 65
DDM Multi-Stage HK$15.88 HK$26.03 HK$36.12 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$27.66 HK$36.88 HK$46.10 63
P/B Multiple HK$13.43 HK$17.91 HK$22.39 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$46.55 HK$62.37 HK$93.09 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$21.51 HK$40.80 HK$69.54 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.69 HK$14.34 HK$25.43 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$65.28 HK$62.05 HK$46.96 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$62.37) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.22). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 38.7 as of Jul 1, 2026
P/S ratio 1.26 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5600 price ÷ EPS = P/E 38.7
Dividend yield 3.2%
Net margin 3.2% FY2025
Return on equity 1.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 2.8% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.3% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) HK$90.5B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.4% 3y avg −0.3%
EPS growth (YoY) +17.9%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow HK$9.0B FY2025
Net debt HK$75.1B FY2025 · ≈ 8.4 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 91

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 86
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 100
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties.

Full company description

Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties. This division's property investment portfolio comprises office towers, shopping malls, hotels, retail space, star hotels, and serviced apartments, as well as residential projects; and trading portfolio consists of residential properties. It also owns and manages hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as owns interests in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in the United States. The company's Aviation division provides flight catering, and passenger and ramp handling services; and owns and operates a cargo terminal at Hong Kong International Airport, as well as offers aircraft maintenance and modification services. Its Beverages division owns rights to manufacture, market, and distribute beverages to consumers. The company's Trading & Industrial division markets, retails, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories through its retail outlets; sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and scooters; operates a chain of bakeries; packages and sells sugar products under the Taikoo Sugar brand; and offers waste management, business consultancy, and financial services, as well as engages in property trading and investment activities. Swire Pacific Limited was founded in 1816 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Swire Pacific Limited operates as a subsidiary of John Swire & Sons (H.K.) Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Swire Pacific A reported revenue of HK$90.5B in FY2025 versus HK$90.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$90.5B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−10.8% (−14.0 + 3.2)
Revenue −0.1%/yr
FY21 HK$90.8B
FY22 HK$91.2B
FY23 HK$94.8B
FY24 HK$82.0B
FY25 HK$90.5B
Net income −13.0%/yr
FY21 HK$5.1B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$28.9B
FY24 HK$4.3B
FY25 HK$2.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.0 %

of which total revenue +4.2 % · buybacks/dilution +0.8 %

EBIT margin −5.6 %
Tax rate −0.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.4 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0019 screens 198% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Pacific A Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0019

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 375 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 3.2% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.26× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 23
FUTURE27 · sector 17
PAST4 · sector 17
HEALTH86 · sector 89
DIVIDEND64 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

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Honeywell International Inc HON $217.43 $218.95 +1%
CITIC Limited 0267 HK$13.02 HK$26.04 +100%
Poste Italiane S.p.A PST €26.90 €7.65 −72%
SK Inc 034730 553,000 KRW 615,077 KRW +11%
PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,800 IDR 9,600 IDR +100%
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $59.10 $79.11 +34%
Kingboard Holdings 0148 HK$45.52 HK$32.91 −28%
Keppel Ltd BN4 11.27 SGD 3.89 SGD −65%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Swire Pacific A (0019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$35.70 versus a price of HK$106.30, about −66% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0019?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Pacific A is HK$35.70 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: HK$106.30.
What is the quality score of 0019?
Swire Pacific A has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Swire Pacific A (0019)?
Swire Pacific A reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$90.5B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0019?
The net profit margin of Swire Pacific A is about 3.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Swire Pacific A pay a dividend?
Swire Pacific A currently shows a dividend yield of about 3.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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