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Swire Pacific Limited (0019) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$296B

SP Swire Pacific Limited 0019 · HK
PriceHK$103.90
Fair ValueHK$35.70
Upside-65.6%
Quality58/100
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Healthy Growth
Thin margins · 3.3% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow
4.55% dividend yield
Mixed vs. peers (8/15)
Narrow moat 33/100
Evidence: Medium Range HK$26.77 – HK$44.62 Share as image

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 13 valuation models · updated today

Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$16.77 to HK$35.70 (+112.9%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +19.4% over the past month.

A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$44.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
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Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

HK$104.50 HK$27.22 Fair Value HK$35.70 Mar 2021 Aug 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range HK$27.22 – HK$104.50 · fair‑value band HK$26.77 – HK$44.62 · the HK$103.90 price screens above the HK$35.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

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Analysis

Swire Pacific Limited (0019) currently trades at HK$103.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$35.70, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).

Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Pacific Limited generated revenue of HK$90.5B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at HK$75.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from HK$26.77 (bear case) to HK$44.62 (bull case); at HK$103.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -66%, 0019 screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Growth DCF HK$21.03 HK$39.88 HK$67.97 80
Residual Income HK$63.81 HK$60.65 HK$45.90 76
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.59 HK$14.02 HK$24.86 74
All 13 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings HK$3.05 31
5Y P/E Exit HK$11.53 HK$26.39 HK$41.62 38
10Y P/E Exit HK$14.22 HK$27.82 HK$43.83 35
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd HK$7.00 HK$20.44 HK$27.01 54
Lynch FV HK$4.25 HK$6.08 HK$7.90 50
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM HK$15.52 HK$33.88 HK$57.00 70
DDM Multi-Stage HK$15.52 HK$25.44 HK$35.30 61
Multiples
P/E Multiple HK$27.03 HK$36.05 HK$45.06 63
P/B Multiple HK$13.13 HK$17.51 HK$21.88 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) HK$45.50 HK$60.96 HK$90.99 50
Growth DCF
Growth DCF HK$21.03 HK$39.88 HK$67.97 80
Rev-Margin DCF HK$4.59 HK$14.02 HK$24.86 74
Economic Profit
Residual Income HK$63.81 HK$60.65 HK$45.90 76

Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$60.96) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

Revenue (TTM) HK$90.5B
Revenue growth (YoY) +5.4%
Net margin 3.3%
Return on equity 1.1%
Free cash flow HK$9.0B FY2025
P/E ratio 38.7 as of Jul 1, 2026
More key figures
Operating margin 11.3%
EPS (TTM) HK$0.5600
Dividend yield 4.6%
EPS growth (YoY) +1,793%
Net debt HK$75.1B FY2025

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 58/100

Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87

Profitability 16
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 48
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 64
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 48
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 87
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 92
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 77
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 97
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

About the company

Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties.

Full company description

Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties. This division's property investment portfolio comprises office towers, shopping malls, hotels, retail space, star hotels, and serviced apartments, as well as residential projects; and trading portfolio consists of residential properties. It also owns and manages hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as owns interests in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in the United States. The company's Aviation division provides flight catering, and passenger and ramp handling services; and owns and operates a cargo terminal at Hong Kong International Airport, as well as offers aircraft maintenance and modification services. Its Beverages division owns rights to manufacture, market, and distribute beverages to consumers. The company's Trading & Industrial division markets, retails, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories through its retail outlets; sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and scooters; operates a chain of bakeries; packages and sells sugar products under the Taikoo Sugar brand; and offers waste management, business consultancy, and financial services, as well as engages in property trading and investment activities. Swire Pacific Limited was founded in 1816 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Swire Pacific Limited operates as a subsidiary of John Swire & Sons (H.K.) Limited.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Swire Pacific Limited reported revenue of HK$90.5B in FY2025 versus HK$90.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 64/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
HK$90.5B
Latest YoY
+10.4%
Avg. growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−0.3%
Avg. growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.9%
Avg. growth/yr (27Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.4%
Revenue −0.1%/yr
FY21 HK$90.8B
FY22 HK$91.2B
FY23 HK$94.8B
FY24 HK$82.0B
FY25 HK$90.5B
Net income −13.0%/yr
FY21 HK$5.1B
FY22 HK$4.2B
FY23 HK$28.9B
FY24 HK$4.3B
FY25 HK$2.9B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +1.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +5.0 pp

of which total revenue +4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.8 pp

EBIT margin −5.6 pp
Tax rate −0.1 pp
Residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 pp

Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

0019 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Swire Pacific Limited Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/0019

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 385 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 58 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −66% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 1% · Below median
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 3% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 5% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 4.6% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.28× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 38.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 0.15× · Cheaper than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 0.42× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 4.2× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 5.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG 0.26× · Cheaper than 75% of peers

Snowflake

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUE 0 · sector 27
FUTURE 27 · sector 17
PAST 4 · sector 18
HEALTH 86 · sector 89
DIVIDEND 91 · sector 39

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.

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Frequently asked questions

Is Swire Pacific Limited (0019) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of HK$35.70 versus a price of HK$103.90, about −66% (overvalued).
What is the fair value of 0019?
Our model-based fair value for Swire Pacific Limited is HK$35.70 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price is HK$103.90.
What is the quality score of 0019?
Swire Pacific Limited has a Quality Score of 58/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Swire Pacific Limited (0019)?
Swire Pacific Limited reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about HK$90.5B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of 0019?
The net profit margin of Swire Pacific Limited is about 3.3%, meaning it keeps roughly 3.3% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Swire Pacific Limited pay a dividend?
Swire Pacific Limited currently shows a dividend yield of about 4.55% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).

How we calculate Fair Value

Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

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