Swire Pacific Limited (0019) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · HK · Market cap HK$296B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 13 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$16.77 to HK$35.70 (+112.9%) since Aug 2, 2026. Share price +19.4% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 66% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$44.62). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$27.22 – HK$104.50 · fair‑value band HK$26.77 – HK$44.62 · the HK$103.90 price screens above the HK$35.70 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Swire Pacific Limited (0019) currently trades at HK$103.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$35.70, implying the stock looks roughly 65.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: medium).
Over the trailing twelve months, Swire Pacific Limited generated revenue of HK$90.5B at a net margin of 3.3%. Revenue grew 5.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 1.1%. Net debt stands at HK$75.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$26.77 (bear case) to HK$44.62 (bull case); at HK$103.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 71% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at -66%, 0019 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 13 models by family
Widest divergence: Asset-Based (HK$60.96) versus Earnings-Based (HK$6.08). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 56 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 87
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties.
Full company description
Swire Pacific Limited engages in the property, aviation, beverages, marine, and trading and industrial businesses in Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan, rest of Asia, the United States, and internationally. The company's Property division develops, owns, and operates mixed-use properties. This division's property investment portfolio comprises office towers, shopping malls, hotels, retail space, star hotels, and serviced apartments, as well as residential projects; and trading portfolio consists of residential properties. It also owns and manages hotels in Hong Kong and Mainland China, as well as owns interests in the Mandarin Oriental hotel in the United States. The company's Aviation division provides flight catering, and passenger and ramp handling services; and owns and operates a cargo terminal at Hong Kong International Airport, as well as offers aircraft maintenance and modification services. Its Beverages division owns rights to manufacture, market, and distribute beverages to consumers. The company's Trading & Industrial division markets, retails, and distributes footwear, apparel, and accessories through its retail outlets; sells passenger cars, commercial vehicles, motorcycles, and scooters; operates a chain of bakeries; packages and sells sugar products under the Taikoo Sugar brand; and offers waste management, business consultancy, and financial services, as well as engages in property trading and investment activities. Swire Pacific Limited was founded in 1816 and is based in Central, Hong Kong. Swire Pacific Limited operates as a subsidiary of John Swire & Sons (H.K.) Limited.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Swire Pacific Limited reported revenue of HK$90.5B in FY2025 versus HK$90.8B in FY2021, a compound −0.1%/yr. Reported net income was HK$2.9B in FY2025, compounding −13.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +0.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
0019 screens 66% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 385 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,860 IDR | 9,720 IDR | +100% |
| Koç Holding KCHOL | 205.80 TRY | 182.26 TRY | -11% |
| SRF Limited SRF | ₹2,585 | ₹859.71 | -67% |
| Empresas Copec S.A COPEC | 6,030 CLP | 10,809 CLP | +79% |
| Posco International Corporation 047050 | 54,300 KRW | 71,119 KRW | +31% |
| Tube Investments of India Limited TIINDIA | ₹2,839 | ₹723.80 | -75% |
| Doosan Corporation 000155 | 436,000 KRW | 93,413 KRW | -79% |
| Thermax Limited THERMAX | ₹4,002 | ₹1,343 | -66% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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