Kingdom Holding Company (4280) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Kingdom Holding Company stock SAR 13.40, price SAR 12.15, upside +10.3%, quality 52 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
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Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range 6.22 SAR – 15.03 SAR · fair‑value band 10.05 SAR – 16.74 SAR · the 12.15 SAR price screens below the 13.40 SAR fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Kingdom Holding Company is a public equity firm specializing in making investments in equities, private investments, real estate and hospitality assets, supported by robust risk management, governance, banking and financial services, luxury hotels and hotel management, AI, digital services, e-commerce, investment funds, aviation, hotel, ride sharing, media and publishing, entertainment, healthcare including healthcare provision and healthcare management and consultancy, education, energy, manufacturing, consumer and retail, agriculture, social media, technology and industrial sectors.
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The firm seeks to invest primarily in Saudi Arabia and developing markets within the Middle East and Africa but also invests internationally including the United States. Kingdom Holding Company was founded in 1980 and is based in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.
Stock analysis
Kingdom Holding Company (4280) currently trades at 12.15 SAR, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is 13.40 SAR, implying the stock looks roughly 9.3% undervalued today.
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Valuation
How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 93/100, which puts the data coverage at high.
Scenario range: 10.05 SAR (bear) to 16.74 SAR (bull), the price of 12.15 SAR sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 52/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Kingdom Holding Company reported revenue of 2.6B SAR in FY2025 versus 1.5B SAR in FY2021, a compound +14.9%/yr. Reported net income was 2.1B SAR in FY2025, compounding +20.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap 44.9B SAR (≈ $12.0B) Large · P/E ratio 23.8 · P/S ratio 18.5 · EPS (TTM) 0.5100 SAR · Dividend yield 1.2% · Net margin 75.4% · Return on equity 3.4% · Return on assets (EBIT) 5.7%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 64 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 19% below its 52-week high and 67% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 10% fair-value upside, at 10%, 4280 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear10.05 SARFair Value 13.40 SARBull16.74 SAR
Price 12.15 SAR · Upside +10.3%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (0.2990 SAR per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+14.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+13.4%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.2%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.24.5% vs 11.8%, picking up
Profit margin 2019 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.57% → 39%
2025 sits 74% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 2.5%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+37.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect
n/a
No analyst forecast available.
After inflation (Saudi Arabia: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.7% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +34.5% a year for the price.
Compare Kingdom Holding Company with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Conglomerates · 355 stocks
Beats the industry median on 6/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score52 · Above median
Fair Value upside+5.6% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)3.4% · Below median
Return on assets2.9% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)75.4% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)60.3% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)1.3% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)1.2% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.20× · Below median
Valuation Multiplesvs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Kingdom Holding Company Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/4280
Frequently asked questions
Is Kingdom Holding Company (4280) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of 13.40 SAR versus a price of 12.15 SAR, about +10% upside (undervalued).
What is the fair value of 4280?
Our model-based fair value for Kingdom Holding Company is 13.40 SAR (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: 12.15 SAR.
What is the quality score of 4280?
Kingdom Holding Company has a Quality Score of 52/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of 13.40 SAR (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 2 valuation models. Cautious scenario 10.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.74 SAR. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Kingdom Holding Company stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at 13.40 SAR, about +10% upside versus a price of 12.15 SAR (undervalued). Cautious scenario 10.05 SAR, optimistic scenario 16.74 SAR. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Kingdom Holding Company reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about 2.5B SAR (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Kingdom Holding Company pay a dividend?
Kingdom Holding Company currently shows a dividend yield of 1.15% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Kingdom Holding Company would have to grow free cash flow by +37.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.6 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +20.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of 4280 use?
Our models discount Kingdom Holding Company at 8.6 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.16, country premium for Saudi Arabia. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Kingdom Holding Company that is +37.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.6 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Kingdom Holding Company (4280) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Kingdom Holding Company grew +20.6 % a year. The price currently implies +37.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Kingdom Holding Company (4280) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Kingdom Holding Company (+37.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.23 %: that much free cash flow Kingdom Holding Company produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.6 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Kingdom Holding Company it is 13.40 SAR per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of 12.15 SAR. It is the blended result of 2 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Kingdom Holding Company stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, 4280 trades below its calculated fair value: price 12.15 SAR, fair value 13.40 SAR, a gap of about +10% (undervalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of 4280?
No. The price is what the market pays today (12.15 SAR); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (13.40 SAR). For Kingdom Holding Company the two are 1.25 SAR per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Kingdom Holding Company worth?
The market values Kingdom Holding Company at about 44.9B SAR (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is 12.15 SAR; our models calculate a fair value of 13.40 SAR per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about 4280?
Our models span a range for Kingdom Holding Company: cautious scenario 10.05 SAR, base 13.40 SAR, optimistic 16.74 SAR per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price 12.15 SAR). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of 4280?
Kingdom Holding Company trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 23.8 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of 13.40 SAR is built from several models across several years. Excluding one-off items of fiscal year 2025 it is 36.7 (reported for FY2025: 20.8). Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 9 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 36.8. Other multiples: P/B 0.8, P/S 18.5, EV/EBITDA 45.2.
How solid is the balance sheet of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Balance-sheet figures for Kingdom Holding Company (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 3.4%, debt of 0.20 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 52/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is 4280 from its 52-week high?
Kingdom Holding Company trades at 12.15 SAR, about 19% below its 52-week high of 15.03 SAR and 67% above the low of 7.29 SAR (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of 13.40 SAR is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Kingdom Holding Company?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value 3M Company, Honeywell International Inc, Swire Pacific Limited, SGH Limited, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Kingdom Holding Company stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price 12.15 SAR, calculated fair value 13.40 SAR (+10%), Quality Score 52/100, from 2 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of 4280 calculated?
We run Kingdom Holding Company through 2 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of 13.40 SAR, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Kingdom Holding Company currently trades 9 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was 12.15 SAR. Our model-based fair value is 13.40 SAR, about +10% upside (undervalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Kingdom Holding Company right now?
The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety. The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Where does the earnings growth of Kingdom Holding Company (4280) come from?
Earnings per share at Kingdom Holding Company grew +8.8 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share −2.4 %, EBIT margin +8.9 %, tax rate −0.6 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +3.0 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Kingdom Holding Company
How large is the market capitalisation of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The market capitalisation of Kingdom Holding Company is 44.9B SAR (≈ $12.0B). The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Kingdom Holding Company is 18.5 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Earnings per share at Kingdom Holding Company are 0.5100 SAR (price ÷ EPS = P/E 23.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The dividend yield of Kingdom Holding Company is 1.2% (payout 48.6%, on adjusted earnings, reported 27.5%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The net margin of Kingdom Holding Company is 75.4% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Kingdom Holding Company is 3.4% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Kingdom Holding Company is 5.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
The operating margin of Kingdom Holding Company is 60.3% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Revenue at Kingdom Holding Company is growing +1.3% versus a year earlier (3y avg +1.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Kingdom Holding Company (4280)?
Earnings per share at Kingdom Holding Company are growing −18.2% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Kingdom Holding Company (4280) carry?
The net debt of Kingdom Holding Company is 10.0B SAR (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 18.1 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026