Poste Italiane SpA (PST) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · IT · Market cap €34.9B · ISIN IT0003796171
What is Poste Italiane SpA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 252% above our fair value of €7.65.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 2 valuation models · updated today
Share price −1.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €5.78 – €29.00 · fair‑value band €5.74 – €9.57 · the €26.90 price screens above the €7.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Poste Italiane SpA (PST) currently trades at €26.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.65, implying the stock looks roughly 251.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Poste Italiane SpA generated revenue of €14.3B at a net margin of 17.0%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at €3.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €5.74 (bear case) to €9.57 (bull case); at €26.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −72%, PST screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1218 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 2 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€9.10) versus Asset-Based (€7.17). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services.
Full company description
Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services. Its Mail, Parcels and Distribution segment engages in the mail, parcel, and logistics activities, as well as provision of welfare services. The PostePay Services segment provides payment management and e-money services through a network of LIS sales points, as well as mobile and fixed telephone services and electricity and gas sales services. Its Financial Services segment engages in the placement and distribution of financial and insurance products and services, such as current accounts, postal savings products, mutual funds, financing, insurance policies, and activities. The Insurance Services segment is involved in the investment, retirement, and protection businesses through the issuance of life and P&C insurance products. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Rome, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Poste Italiane SpA reported revenue of €13.6B in FY2025 versus €31.6B in FY2021, a compound −19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
PST screens 252% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →
Peer Group
Conglomerates · 375 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 | 7.20 THB | 14.40 THB | +100% |
| 3M Company MMM | $178.83 | $76.87 | −57% |
| Honeywell International Inc HON | $217.43 | $218.95 | +1% |
| CITIC Limited 0267 | HK$13.02 | HK$26.04 | +100% |
| Swire Pacific Limited 0019 | HK$106.30 | HK$36.88 | −65% |
| SK Inc 034730 | 553,000 KRW | 615,077 KRW | +11% |
| PT Astra International Tbk, ASII | 4,800 IDR | 9,600 IDR | +100% |
| Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 | $59.10 | $79.11 | +34% |
| Kingboard Holdings 0148 | HK$45.52 | HK$32.91 | −28% |
| Keppel Ltd BN4 | 11.27 SGD | 3.89 SGD | −65% |
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