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Poste Italiane SpA (PST) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · IT · Market cap €34.9B · ISIN IT0003796171

What is Poste Italiane SpA really worth?

PI Poste Italiane SpA PST · MI
Price€26.90
Fair Value€7.65
Upside−71.6%
Quality53/100

A solid business, but trading 252% above our fair value of €7.65.

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Strengths

Solidly profitable · 16.6% net margin
Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Weak Growth (revenue 5y −14.6 %/yr)
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Moderate moat 64/100
!Weak on future: 17 out of 100

For context

·6.32% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €5.74 – €9.57

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 2 valuation models · updated today

Share price −1.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€9.57). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (53/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€29.00 €5.78 Fair Value €7.65 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €5.78 – €29.00 · fair‑value band €5.74 – €9.57 · the €26.90 price screens above the €7.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

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Analysis

Poste Italiane SpA (PST) currently trades at €26.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €7.65, implying the stock looks roughly 251.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 53/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. How firm this estimate is: it rests on 24 models at a data quality of 95/100, which puts the evidence level at high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Poste Italiane SpA generated revenue of €14.3B at a net margin of 17.0%. Revenue grew 8.5% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 19.0%. Net debt stands at €3.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €5.74 (bear case) to €9.57 (bull case); at €26.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 6% below its 52-week high and 55% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at 11% fair-value upside, at −72%, PST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1218 per share, which is 1.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
P/B Multiple €6.82 €9.10 €11.37 55
NCAV (Graham) €5.35 €7.17 €10.71 54
All 2 models by family
Multiples
P/B Multiple €6.82 €9.10 €11.37 55
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €5.35 €7.17 €10.71 54

Widest divergence: Multiples (€9.10) versus Asset-Based (€7.17). Highest evidence: P/B Multiple (55).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 14.3
P/S ratio 2.33 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €1.86 price ÷ EPS = P/E 14.3
Dividend yield 6.3% payout 91.4%
Net margin 16.3% FY2025
Return on equity 18.2% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 0.9% avg 5y
Operating margin 25.0% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €14.4B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +3.4% 3y avg −24.7%
EPS growth (YoY) −5.8%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €1.5B FY2025
Net debt €3.3B FY2025 · ≈ 2.2 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 53/100

Of which business quality 43 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 81

Profitability 32
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 51
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 7
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 55
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 84
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 75
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 86
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 83
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services.

Full company description

Poste Italiane S.p.A. provides postal, logistics, and financial and insurance products and services in Italy. The company operates through four segments: Mail, Parcels and Distribution; PostePay Services; Financial Services; and Insurance Services. Its Mail, Parcels and Distribution segment engages in the mail, parcel, and logistics activities, as well as provision of welfare services. The PostePay Services segment provides payment management and e-money services through a network of LIS sales points, as well as mobile and fixed telephone services and electricity and gas sales services. Its Financial Services segment engages in the placement and distribution of financial and insurance products and services, such as current accounts, postal savings products, mutual funds, financing, insurance policies, and activities. The Insurance Services segment is involved in the investment, retirement, and protection businesses through the issuance of life and P&C insurance products. The company was founded in 1862 and is based in Rome, Italy.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Poste Italiane SpA reported revenue of €13.6B in FY2025 versus €31.6B in FY2021, a compound −19.0%/yr. Reported net income was €2.2B in FY2025, compounding +8.8%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 40/100
Revenue growth is weak, negative or inconsistent.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€13.6B
Latest YoY
+5.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−24.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
−14.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (22Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+2.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+16.9% (10.6 + 6.3)
Revenue −19.0%/yr
FY21 €31.6B
FY22 €31.8B
FY23 €20.1B
FY24 €12.9B
FY25 €13.6B
Net income +8.8%/yr
FY21 €1.6B
FY22 €1.5B
FY23 €1.9B
FY24 €2.0B
FY25 €2.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2012-2023) +9.4 % p.a.
Revenue per share +2.4 %

of which total revenue +2.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.1 %

EBIT margin +6.0 %
Tax rate +1.3 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

PST screens 252% overvalued. Compare with ITOCHU Corporation →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Poste Italiane SpA Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/PST

Peer Group

Conglomerates · 375 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 48 · Below median
Fair Value upside −72% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Top 25%
Return on assets 1% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 17% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 25% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 3% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 6.3% · Top 25%
Debt / equity 0.36× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Conglomerates median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 14.3× · Cheaper than median
P/B 2.93× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.81× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 26.6× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 9.4× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 23
FUTURE17 · sector 17
PAST73 · sector 17
HEALTH82 · sector 89
DIVIDEND100 · sector 42

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Conglomerates stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
ITOCHU Corporation ITOCHU19 7.20 THB 14.40 THB +100%
3M Company MMM $178.83 $76.87 −57%
Honeywell International Inc HON $217.43 $218.95 +1%
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Swire Pacific Limited 0019 HK$106.30 HK$36.88 −65%
SK Inc 034730 553,000 KRW 615,077 KRW +11%
PT Astra International Tbk, ASII 4,800 IDR 9,600 IDR +100%
Jardine Matheson Holdings J36 $59.10 $79.11 +34%
Kingboard Holdings 0148 HK$45.52 HK$32.91 −28%
Keppel Ltd BN4 11.27 SGD 3.89 SGD −65%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Poste Italiane SpA (PST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €7.65 versus a price of €26.90, about −72% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of PST?
Our model-based fair value for Poste Italiane SpA is €7.65 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €26.90.
What is the quality score of PST?
Poste Italiane SpA has a Quality Score of 53/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Poste Italiane SpA (PST)?
Poste Italiane SpA reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €14.3B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of PST?
The net profit margin of Poste Italiane SpA is about 17.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 17.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Poste Italiane SpA pay a dividend?
Poste Italiane SpA currently shows a dividend yield of about 6.32% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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