Compass Group (XGR2) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · DE · Market cap €48.1B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated today
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from €16.80 to €18.30 (+8.9%) since Jul 12, 2026. Share price −5.8% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 32% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€23.10). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (58/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (€12.17 to €23.10) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €9.59 – €33.47 · fair‑value band €12.17 – €23.10 · the €26.74 price screens above the €18.30 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Compass Group (XGR2) currently trades at €26.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €18.30, implying the stock looks roughly 31.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 58/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Compass Group generated revenue of €48.5B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 10.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 26.9%. Net debt stands at €6.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €12.17 (bear case) to €23.10 (bull case); at €26.74, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 17% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -51% fair-value upside, at -32%, XGR2 screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€18.84) versus Asset-Based (€3.01). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 57 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; insurance brokerage services; and others.
Full company description
Compass Group PLC provides food and support services in North America and internationally. The company offers support services, such as cleaning in hospitals; reception services at corporate headquarters; managing remote camps; grounds and facilities services at schools and universities; insurance brokerage services; and others. It serves business and industry; healthcare and senior living; education; sports and leisure; and defense, offshore, and remote sectors. The company was founded in 1941 and is based in Chertsey, the United Kingdom.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Compass Group reported revenue of €35.2B in FY2025 versus €17.9B in FY2021, a compound +18.4%/yr. Reported net income was €1.4B in FY2025, compounding +41.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +8.0 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.6 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
XGR2 screens 32% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 224 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCDS | C$24.01 | C$10.84 | -55% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
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Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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