Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $22.4B · ISIN US2371941053
What is Darden Restaurants Inc really worth?
Darden Restaurants Inc
DRI · US
A solid business, but trading 26% above our fair value of $173.68.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price +6.6% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 72/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- A fairly wide model range ($113.73 to $231.34) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.08 – $227.68 · fair‑value band $113.73 – $231.34 · the $218.04 price screens above the $173.68 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Darden Restaurants Inc (DRI) currently trades at $218.04, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $173.68, implying the stock looks roughly 25.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 72/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $198.70 per share, and 2 of the 26 models we run sit above the $218.04 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $59.95, and 24 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Darden Restaurants Inc generated revenue of $12.8B at a net margin of 8.7%. Revenue grew 5.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 51.5%. Net debt stands at $5.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $113.73 (bear case) to $231.34 (bull case); at $218.04, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 31% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at −20%, DRI screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 3 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.9567 per share, which is 0.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($198.70) versus Asset-Based ($12.91). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 65
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada.
Full company description
Darden Restaurants, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates full-service restaurants in the United States and Canada. The company operates under Olive Garden, LongHorn Steakhouse, Cheddar's Scratch Kitchen, Chuy's, Yard House, Ruth's Chris Steak House, The Capital Grille, Seasons 52, Eddie V's Prime Seafood, Bahama Breeze, The Capital Burger, Darden and Darden Restaurants brand names. Darden Restaurants, Inc. was founded in 1938 and is based in Orlando, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Darden Restaurants Inc reported revenue of $13.2B in FY2026 versus $9.6B in FY2022, a compound +8.2%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2026, compounding +6.1%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +6.5 % · buybacks/dilution +0.9 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
DRI screens 26% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Darden Restaurants (DRI) Stock Looks About Fairly Priced Despite Its 76% Run
- Darden Restaurants to Release Fiscal 2027 First Quarter Results on September 24, 2026
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
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