CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $8.0B · ISIN US1489291021
What is CAVA Group, Inc. really worth?
CAVA Group, Inc.
CAVA · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
Below-average quality, and trading another 477% above our fair value of $10.69.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −2.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($13.75). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (43/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- The model range is unusually wide ($5.16 to $13.75). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
Price vs Fair Value (3 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
39‑month range $29.98 – $150.88 · fair‑value band $5.16 – $13.75 · the $61.67 price screens above the $10.69 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) currently trades at $61.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $10.69, implying the stock looks roughly 477.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 43/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $15.87 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $61.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $4.48, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, CAVA Group, Inc. generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 5.4%. Revenue grew 32.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 8.6%. Net debt stands at $183M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $5.16 (bear case) to $13.75 (bull case); at $61.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 42% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −83%, CAVA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.3533 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($15.87) versus Dividend Discount ($0.7500). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of restaurants under the CAVA brand in the United States. It also offers dips, spreads, and dressings through grocery stores. In addition, the company provides walk-the-line, online, and mobile ordering platforms. CAVA Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is headquartered in Washington, District Of Columbia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
CAVA Group, Inc. reported revenue of $1.2B in FY2025 versus $500M in FY2021, a compound +23.9%/yr. Reported net income was $63.7M in FY2025.
CAVA screens 477% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- How Durable Is CAVA's 9% Comps Growth Amid Food-Safety Concerns?
- Strong Q2 2026 Profits Might Change The Case For Investing In CAVA Group (CAVA)
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 35/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
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