Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.9B · ISIN US26701L1008
What is Dutch Bros Inc really worth?
Dutch Bros Inc
BROS · US
Below-average quality, and trading another 261% above our fair value of $12.80.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 14, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −27.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($16.00). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (34/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
- A fairly wide model range ($8.72 to $16.00) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $22.81 – $85.37 · fair‑value band $8.72 – $16.00 · the $46.24 price screens above the $12.80 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 14, 2026.
Analysis
Dutch Bros Inc (BROS) currently trades at $46.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $12.80, implying the stock looks roughly 261.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 34/100 (below-average quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $26.59 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $46.24 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.32, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Dutch Bros Inc generated revenue of $1.7B at a net margin of 4.6%. Revenue grew 30.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at $820M. Fundamentals as of Aug 14, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $8.72 (bear case) to $16.00 (bull case); at $46.24, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 38% below its 52-week high and 4% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −72%, BROS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.4331 per share, which is 3.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($26.59) versus Asset-Based ($3.32). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 14, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 38 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 14
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company sells and distributes coffee, coffee-related products, and accessories. It operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments.
Full company description
Dutch Bros Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates and franchises drive-thru shops in the United States. The company sells and distributes coffee, coffee-related products, and accessories. It operates through Company-Operated Shops and Franchising and Other segments. The company sells its products under various brands such as Dutch Bros, Dutch Bros Coffee, Dutch Bros Rebel, Dutch Bros, and Blue Rebel. Dutch Bros Inc. was founded in 1992 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Dutch Bros Inc reported revenue of $1.6B in FY2025 versus $498M in FY2021, a compound +34.7%/yr. Reported net income was $79.8M in FY2025.
BROS screens 261% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Dutch Bros (BROS) Brings Back Fall Drinks, Is It Still Below Fair Value?
- BROS Stock Slips 22% in a Month: Should Investors Buy the Dip or Wait?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 14, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
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