Yum China Holdings Inc (YUMC) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $14.8B · ISIN US98850P1093
What is Yum China Holdings Inc really worth?
Yum China Holdings Inc
YUMC · US
A solid business, trading 19% below our fair value of $54.27.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 27, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 8 days ago
Share price −8.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($35.02 to $74.25) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
- The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $28.06 – $64.44 · fair‑value band $35.02 – $74.25 · the $43.69 price screens below the $54.27 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 27, 2026.
Analysis
Yum China Holdings Inc (YUMC) currently trades at $43.69, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $54.27, implying the stock looks roughly 19.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 73/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $49.95 per share, and 12 of the 26 models we run sit above the $43.69 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $10.47, and 14 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Yum China Holdings Inc generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of 7.8%. Revenue grew 9.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 16.3%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 27, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.02 (bear case) to $74.25 (bull case); at $43.69, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 24% below its 52-week high and 7% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −53% fair-value upside, at 24%, YUMC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.02 per share, which is 1.9 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($49.95) versus Asset-Based ($10.47). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 27, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 69 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 50
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food deliver services. Yum China Holdings, Inc.
Full company description
Yum China Holdings, Inc. owns, operates, and franchises restaurants in the People's Republic of China. The company operates KFC, Pizza Hut, and All Other segments. It operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, Lavazza, Little Sheep, and Huang Ji Huang concepts. The company also offers online food deliver services. Yum China Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1987 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yum China Holdings Inc reported revenue of $11.8B in FY2025 versus $9.9B in FY2021, a compound +4.6%/yr. Reported net income was $929M in FY2025, compounding −1.6%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.2 % · buybacks/dilution −0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Wall Street Analysts Predict a 25.63% Upside in Yum China (YUMC): Here's What You Should Know
- Yum China (YUMC) is an Incredible Growth Stock: 3 Reasons Why
- Yum China (YUMC) Stock May Be 28% Undervalued As Burger Bar Expansion Grows
- Yum China Holdings (YUMC) Resets China Brand Licenses, Is It Still A Bargain?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 27, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
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