Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $45.1B · ISIN US9884981013
What is Yum! Brands Inc really worth?
Yum! Brands Inc
YUM · US
A solid business, but trading 162% above our fair value of $58.17.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026
From 19 valuation models · updated 2 days ago
Share price +3.3% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($102.97). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($35.43 to $102.97). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $97.97 – $167.49 · fair‑value band $35.43 – $102.97 · the $152.54 price screens above the $58.17 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.
Analysis
Yum! Brands Inc (YUM) currently trades at $152.54, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $58.17, implying the stock looks roughly 162.3% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $93.99 per share, and 0 of the 18 models we run sit above the $152.54 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $9.08, and 18 of the 18 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Yum! Brands Inc generated revenue of $8.5B at a net margin of 20.5%. Revenue grew 15.2% year over year. Net debt stands at $11.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 24.6. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $35.43 (bear case) to $102.97 (bull case); at $152.54, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 13% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −62%, YUM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.74 per share, which is 4.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 19 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($93.99) versus Growth DCF ($9.08). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (75).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 67 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 57
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division.
Full company description
Yum! Brands, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, develops, operates, and franchises traditional and non-traditional quick service restaurants in the United States, China, and internationally. The company operates in four segments: KFC Division, Taco Bell Division, Pizza Hut Division, and Habit Burger & Grill Division. It also operates restaurants under the KFC, Pizza Hut, Taco Bell, and Habit Burger & Grill brands, which specialize in chicken, Mexican-style food and pizza categories, made-to-order chargrilled burgers, sandwiches, and other products. The company was formerly known as TRICON Global Restaurants, Inc. and changed its name to Yum! Brands, Inc. in May 2002. Yum! Brands, Inc. was incorporated in 1997 and is headquartered in Louisville, Kentucky.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Yum! Brands Inc reported revenue of $8.2B in FY2025 versus $6.6B in FY2021, a compound +5.7%/yr. Reported net income was $1.6B in FY2025, compounding −0.3%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue −1.5 % · buybacks/dilution +4.8 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
YUM screens 162% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Yum! Brands, Inc. Declares Quarterly Dividend of $0.75 Per Share
- Yum! Brands (YUM) Stock Could Be 9% Pricey On AI Automation Gains
- Stonegate Capital Partners Initiates Coverage on Yum! Brands (YUM)
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $38.03 | $17.92 | −53% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
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