Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $46.7B · ISIN US1696561059
What is Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc really worth?
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc
CMG · US
A strong business, but trading 110% above our fair value of $17.92.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price +11.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($34.53). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($10.76 to $34.53). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $24.08 – $68.55 · fair‑value band $10.76 – $34.53 · the $37.57 price screens above the $17.92 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc (CMG) currently trades at $37.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $17.92, implying the stock looks roughly 109.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $28.82 per share, and 1 of the 24 models we run sit above the $37.57 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $11.43, and 23 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc generated revenue of $12.1B at a net margin of 12.0%. Revenue grew 7.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 49.2%. Net debt stands at $9.5B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $10.76 (bear case) to $34.53 (bull case); at $37.57, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 36% below its 52-week high and 34% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −47% fair-value upside, at −52%, CMG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7376 per share, which is 4.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($28.82) versus Asset-Based ($1.48). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 44
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides.
Full company description
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. It sells food and beverages, such as burritos, burrito bowls, quesadillas, tacos, and salads, as well as kids's meals, chips, and sides. It offers Mexican-inspired meals using responsibly sourced meats, such as chicken, beef, and pork branded as Responsibly Raised. The company also provides digital ordering through its website, mobile app, and third-party delivery platforms. It has operations in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc reported revenue of $11.9B in FY2025 versus $7.5B in FY2021, a compound +12.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +23.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +11.4 % · buybacks/dilution +1.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CMG screens 110% overvalued. Compare with McDonald's Corporation →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Q2 Rundown: Chipotle (NYSE:CMG) Vs Other Modern Fast Food Stocks
- Domino’s Pizza Rallies 5%, Chipotle Edges Higher: Does a Low P/E Signal Value After a 19% YTD Drop?
- Why Is Chipotle (CMG) Down 3.4% Since Last Earnings Report?
- What Are Wall Street Analysts' Target Price for Chipotle Mexican Grill Stock?
Peer Group
Restaurants · 220 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| McDonald's Corporation MCD | $260.06 | $149.03 | −43% |
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $107.26 | $35.83 | −67% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $153.31 | $58.17 | −62% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | −65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.86 | $173.68 | −21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.18 | $54.27 | +15% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $198.99 | $104.89 | −47% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | −75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $332.06 | $227.31 | −32% |
| CAVA Group CAVA | $69.47 | $10.69 | −85% |
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