McDonald's Corporation (MCDS) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$278B
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price +3.3% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 55% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (C$16.16). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (68/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range (C$6.82 to C$16.16) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (4 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
47‑month range C$18.92 – C$28.63 · fair‑value band C$6.82 – C$16.16 · the C$24.01 price screens above the C$10.84 fair value. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
McDonald's Corporation (MCDS) currently trades at C$24.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$10.84, implying the stock looks roughly 54.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, McDonald's Corporation generated revenue of C$26.3B at a net margin of 32.0%. Revenue grew 3.0% year over year. Net debt stands at C$39.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 23.3 (as of Jun 18, 2026). Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$6.82 (bear case) to C$16.16 (bull case); at C$24.01, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 5% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -55%, MCDS screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings (C$13.99) versus Growth DCF (C$1.64). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
Notify me when MCDS reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
McDonald's Corporation owns, operates, and franchises restaurants under the McDonald's brand in the United States and internationally. It offers food and beverages, including hamburgers and cheeseburgers, various chicken sandwiches, fries, shakes, desserts, sundaes, soft serve cones, cookies, pies, soft drinks, coffee, and other beverages; and full or limited breakfast, as well as sells various other products during limited-time promotions. The company owns and operates franchised restaurants under various structures, including conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate. McDonald's Corporation was founded in 1940 and is based in Chicago, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
McDonald's Corporation reported revenue of C$26.9B in FY2025 versus C$23.2B in FY2021, a compound +3.7%/yr. Reported net income was C$8.6B in FY2025, compounding +3.2%/yr from FY2021.
MCDS screens 55% overvalued. Compare with Starbucks Corporation →
Peer Group
Restaurants · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Restaurants median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Restaurants stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Starbucks Corporation SBUX | $108.49 | $35.83 | -67% |
| Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc CMG | $32.00 | $17.92 | -44% |
| Yum! Brands, Inc YUM | $150.34 | $58.17 | -61% |
| Restaurant Brands International Inc QSR | C$104.50 | C$36.37 | -65% |
| Darden Restaurants, Inc DRI | $218.90 | $173.68 | -21% |
| Yum China Holdings YUMC | $47.90 | $54.27 | +13% |
| Texas Roadhouse, Inc TXRH | $214.28 | $104.89 | -51% |
| Dutch Bros Inc BROS | $51.02 | $12.80 | -75% |
| Domino's Pizza, Inc DPZ | $353.72 | $227.31 | -36% |
| Haidilao International Holding 6862 | HK$11.59 | HK$18.10 | +56% |
Compare McDonald's Corporation with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is McDonald's Corporation (MCDS) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of MCDS?
What is the quality score of MCDS?
What is the revenue of McDonald's Corporation (MCDS)?
What is the net profit margin of MCDS?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track McDonald's Corporation and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.