Williams-Sonoma, Inc (WSM) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $27.0B
Williams-Sonoma, Inc
WSM · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $164.16 to $162.63 (−0.9%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price +10.0% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 33% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 78/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($206.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($106.97 to $206.12) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $48.82 – $251.78 · fair‑value band $106.97 – $206.12 · the $242.44 price screens above the $162.63 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Williams-Sonoma, Inc (WSM) currently trades at $242.44, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $162.63, implying the stock looks roughly 32.9% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 78/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Williams-Sonoma, Inc generated revenue of $7.9B at a net margin of 13.8%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 54.0%. Net debt stands at $437M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $106.97 (bear case) to $206.12 (bull case); at $242.44, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 62% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -33%, WSM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($185.69) versus Asset-Based ($11.85). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 76 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 61
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. operates as an omni-channel specialty retailer of various products for home the United States and internationally. The company provides cooking, dining, and entertaining products, such as cookware, tools, electrics, cutlery, tabletop and bar, outdoor, furniture, and a library of cookbooks.
Full company description
Williams-Sonoma, Inc. operates as an omni-channel specialty retailer of various products for home the United States and internationally. The company provides cooking, dining, and entertaining products, such as cookware, tools, electrics, cutlery, tabletop and bar, outdoor, furniture, and a library of cookbooks. It offers home furnishings, home decor products and accessories, bedding, lighting, rugs, table essentials, kids accessories, made-to-order lighting, hardware, personalized products, custom gifts, and vintage-inspired heirloom products. It offers its products under the Williams Sonoma, Pottery Barn, Pottery Barn Kids, Pottery Barn Teen, West Elm, Williams Sonoma Home, Rejuvenation, Mark and Graham, and GreenRow brand names. The company markets its products through e-commerce websites, direct-mail catalogs, and retail stores. Williams-Sonoma, Inc. was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Williams-Sonoma, Inc reported revenue of $7.8B in FY2026 versus $8.2B in FY2022, a compound −1.4%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2026, compounding −0.9%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +5.2 pp · buybacks/dilution +4.4 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
WSM screens 33% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 42/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $544.22 | $423.35 | -22% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
| Canadian Tire Corporation CTC | C$216.35 | C$166.05 | -23% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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