Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $16.3B · ISIN US8923561067
What is Tractor Supply Company really worth?
Tractor Supply Company
TSCO · US
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value of $35.52.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price +4.5% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($22.21 to $51.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $29.14 – $61.60 · fair‑value band $22.21 – $51.35 · the $34.60 price screens below the $35.52 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Tractor Supply Company (TSCO) currently trades at $34.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $35.52, implying the stock looks roughly 2.6% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 60/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $39.50 per share, and 12 of the 24 models we run sit above the $34.60 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $23.55, and 12 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Tractor Supply Company generated revenue of $15.6B at a net margin of 6.9%. Revenue grew 3.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 45.5%. Net debt stands at $5.7B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $22.21 (bear case) to $51.35 (bull case); at $34.60, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 45% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 3%, TSCO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $0.7474 per share, which is 2.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($39.50) versus Asset-Based ($3.30). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 37
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness …
Full company description
Tractor Supply Company operates as a rural lifestyle retailer in the United States. The company provides various merchandise, including livestock and equine feed and equipment, poultry, fencing, and sprayers and chemicals; companion animal products, such as food, treats, and equipment for dogs, cats, and other small animals, as well as dog wellness products; seasonal and recreation products comprising tractors and riders, lawn and garden, bird feeding, power equipment, and other recreational products; truck, tool, and hardware products, such as truck accessories, trailers, generators, lubricants, batteries, and hardware and tools; and clothing, gift, and décor products consist of clothing, footwear, toys, snacks, and decorative merchandise. It offers its products under the 4health, Paws & Claws, American Farmworks, Producer's Pride, Bit & Bridle, Red Shed, Blue Mountain, Redstone, C.E. Schmidt, Retriever, Country Lane, Ridgecut, Countyline, Royal Wing, Country Tuff, Strive, Dumor, Traveller, Farm Table, Treeline, Groundwork, TSC Tractor Supply Co, Huskee, Untamed, JobSmart, and Impeckable brand names. The company operates its retail stores under the Tractor Supply Company, Petsense by Tractor Supply, and Orscheln Farm and Home names; and operates websites under the TractorSupply.com and Petsense.com names. It sells its products to recreational farmers, ranchers, and others. Tractor Supply Company was founded in 1938 and is based in Brentwood, Tennessee.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Tractor Supply Company reported revenue of $15.5B in FY2025 versus $12.7B in FY2021, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $1.1B in FY2025, compounding +2.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +10.2 % · buybacks/dilution +2.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Tractor Supply Recognizes 2026 Top Vendor Partners During Annual Partnership Conference
- Tractor Supply Names Next Class of FFA Future Leaders, Launches Fundraiser for Largest Agriculture Scholarship of Its Kind
- Has Tractor Supply (TSCO) Fallen Far Enough To Look Undervalued?
- How Instacart’s Petsense Partnership Could Shape Tractor Supply’s (TSCO) Recurring Pet Spend Story
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 30/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $755.47 | $398.90 | −47% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | −11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $574.12 | $423.35 | −26% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 116.00 TWD | 80.98 TWD | −30% |
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