ATD.TO (ATD) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · CA · Market cap C$83.6B (≈ $60.4B) · ISIN CA01626P1484
What is ATD.TO really worth?
A solid business, trading 21% below our fair value of C$104.32.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 20, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 20, 2026, revised from C$75.00 to C$104.32 (+39.1%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price −12.0% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid quality (63/100) at a price below fair value, the discount is the argument here, not the business quality.
- A fairly wide model range (C$61.16 to C$130.40) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range C$41.53 – C$93.54 · fair‑value band C$61.16 – C$130.40 · the C$81.91 price screens below the C$104.32 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 20, 2026.
Analysis
ATD.TO (ATD) currently trades at C$81.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is C$104.32, implying the stock looks roughly 21.5% undervalued today. The Quality Score stands at 63/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of C$83.01 per share, and 7 of the 26 models we run sit above the C$81.91 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at C$11.80, and 19 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, ATD.TO generated revenue of C$73.3B at a net margin of 3.7%. Revenue declined 22.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.2%. Net debt stands at C$13.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 20, 2026
Our scenario range runs from C$61.16 (bear case) to C$130.40 (bull case); at C$81.91, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 4% below its 52-week high and 24% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 27%, ATD screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 4 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly C$1.39 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (C$83.01) versus Dividend Discount (C$9.70). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 20, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 58
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers cigarette products and other nicotine products, beverages, beer, wine, fresh food offerings comprising quick service restaurants, candy and snacks, grocery items, and car wash and other services; road transportation fuels and operates …
Full company description
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. operates and licenses convenience stores in North America, Europe, and Asia. It offers cigarette products and other nicotine products, beverages, beer, wine, fresh food offerings comprising quick service restaurants, candy and snacks, grocery items, and car wash and other services; road transportation fuels and operates electric vehicles charging stations; sells energy for stationary engines and aviation fuels; sells lottery tickets, and calling and gift cards; and automatic teller machines. The company operates its convenience stores chain under various banners, including Circle K, Couche-Tard, Holiday, and Ingo. In addition, it operates and licenses stores operated under the Circle K banner in Egypt, Guam, Guatemala, Honduras, Indonesia, Macau, Mexico, New Zealand, Saudi Arabia, South Africa, Tanzania, the United Arab Emirates, and Vietnam. The company was formerly known as Actidev Inc. and changed its name to Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. in December 1994. Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc. was founded in 1980 and is headquartered in Laval, Canada.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
ATD.TO reported revenue of $76.5B in FY2026 versus $62.8B in FY2022, a compound +5.1%/yr. Reported net income was $3.1B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +8.3 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
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Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 20, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $755.47 | $398.90 | −47% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | −11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $34.72 | $35.52 | +2% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $574.12 | $423.35 | −26% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 116.00 TWD | 80.98 TWD | −30% |
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