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Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.6B · ISIN US90384S3031

What is Ulta Beauty Inc really worth?

UB Ulta Beauty Inc logo Ulta Beauty Inc ULTA · US
Price$557.11
Fair Value$475.40
Upside−14.7%
Quality70/100

A solid business, but trading 17% above our fair value of $475.40.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +15.0 %/yr)
✓generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 71/100

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.4% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/14)
!Weak on valuation: 14 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $346.33 – $841.17

Fair value as of: Sep 2, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 2 days ago

Share price +2.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A fairly wide model range ($346.33 to $841.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
  • The price sits in the lower half of our model range, the side with the larger margin of safety.
  • The data supports the verdict: every model runs on fully documented inputs.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$706.82 $314.47 Fair Value $475.40 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $314.47 – $706.82 · fair‑value band $346.33 – $841.17 · the $557.11 price screens above the $475.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 2, 2026.

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Analysis

Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) currently trades at $557.11, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $475.40, implying the stock looks roughly 17.2% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $686.28 per share, and 11 of the 26 models we run sit above the $557.11 price. Bear case: the Multiples group reads lowest at $355.80, and 15 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ulta Beauty Inc generated revenue of $12.7B at a net margin of 9.4%. Revenue grew 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.5%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 2, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $346.33 (bear case) to $841.17 (bull case); at $557.11, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 22% below its 52-week high and 23% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −15%, ULTA screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $15.79 per share, which is 3.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $363.89 $667.78 $1,431 73
Growth DCF $354.39 $708.23 $1,267 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $373.74 $712.76 $1,162 70
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $363.89 $667.78 $1,431 73
Owner Earnings $347.80 $697.67 $1,369 69
5Y Revenue Exit $288.74 $524.38 $857.54 68
5Y EBITDA Exit $373.74 $712.76 $1,162 70
5Y P/E Exit $410.66 $794.59 $1,263 66
10Y Revenue Exit $301.36 $542.30 $943.26 62
10Y EBITDA Exit $368.54 $686.28 $1,217 63
10Y P/E Exit $393.77 $748.83 $1,307 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $182.46 $1,064 $1,480 63
Lynch FV $300.89 $429.84 $558.80 61
PEG = 1.0 $300.89 $429.84 $558.80 57
EPV $270.16 $313.55 $351.51 70
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.22 $4.61 $7.32 66
DDM Multi-Stage $2.22 $3.89 $4.84 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $442.72 $590.30 $737.87 63
P/S Multiple $259.45 $345.93 $432.42 58
P/B Multiple $195.64 $260.85 $326.06 55
EV/EBIT $496.24 $658.37 $820.50 63
EV/EBITDA $397.09 $526.16 $655.23 64
EV/Revenue $252.02 $355.80 $459.58 51
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $32.61 $43.69 $65.21 51
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $354.39 $708.23 $1,267 72
Rev-Margin DCF $288.74 $515.75 $832.37 68
Economic Profit
Residual Income $258.90 $470.66 $10,815 64
ROIC Compounder $305.07 $399.23 $516.61 70
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $452.94 $647.05 $841.17 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($686.28) versus Dividend Discount ($3.89). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (73).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.9
P/S ratio 1.95 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $26.66 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.9
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 1.1%
Net margin 9.3% FY2026
Return on equity 47.5% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 27.0% avg 5y
Operating margin 14.2% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $12.7B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +11.1% 3y avg +6.7%
EPS growth (YoY) +15.5%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $1.1B FY2026
Net debt $1.8B FY2026 · ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 2, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 88
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 30
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 52
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 75
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 61
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 63
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 43
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 40
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and …

Full company description

Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Ulta Beauty Inc reported revenue of $12.4B in FY2026 versus $8.6B in FY2022, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$12.4B
Latest YoY
+9.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+15.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (23Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+16.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+16.2% (16.1 + 0.1)
Revenue +9.5%/yr
FY22 $8.6B
FY23 $10.2B
FY24 $11.2B
FY25 $11.3B
FY26 $12.4B
Net income +4.0%/yr
FY22 $986M
FY23 $1.2B
FY24 $1.3B
FY25 $1.2B
FY26 $1.2B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +19.6 % p.a.
Revenue per share +16.4 %

of which total revenue +12.6 % · buybacks/dilution +3.4 %

EBIT margin +0.3 %
Tax rate +2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.3 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ULTA screens 17% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →

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Ulta Beauty Inc · Fair Value
$475.40 −17%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ulta Beauty Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ULTA

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Specialty Retail · 219 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −15% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 47% · Top 25%
Return on assets 15% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 14% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 11% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%

Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.9× · Pricier than median
P/B 7.35× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 1.62× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 19.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 10.7× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.67× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE14 · sector 30
FUTURE56 · sector 25
PAST100 · sector 27
HEALTH0 · sector 96
DIVIDEND1 · sector 56

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 2, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD C$89.93 C$104.32 +16%
Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY $755.47 $398.90 −47%
Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM $235.09 $162.63 −31%
DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS $202.66 $181.10 −11%
Best Buy Co BBY $82.44 $108.04 +31%
China Tourism Group 601888 ¥54.97 ¥40.40 −27%
Tractor Supply Company TSCO $34.72 $35.52 +2%
Five Below, Inc FIVE $259.41 $117.29 −55%
Murphy USA Inc MUSA $574.12 $423.35 −26%
Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 116.00 TWD 80.98 TWD −30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 2, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $475.40 versus a price of $557.11, about −15% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ULTA?
Our model-based fair value for Ulta Beauty Inc is $475.40 (as of Sep 2, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $557.11.
What is the quality score of ULTA?
Ulta Beauty Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ulta Beauty Inc (ULTA)?
Ulta Beauty Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $12.7B (latest available figure, as of Sep 2, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ULTA?
The net profit margin of Ulta Beauty Inc is about 9.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ulta Beauty Inc pay a dividend?
Ulta Beauty Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.05% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 2, 2026).
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