Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.6B
Ulta Beauty, Inc
ULTA · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $488.39 to $475.40 (−2.7%) since Jul 19, 2026. Share price +9.9% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- A fairly wide model range ($346.33 to $841.17) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $302.26 – $706.82 · fair‑value band $346.33 – $841.17 · the $515.57 price screens above the $475.40 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA) currently trades at $515.57, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $475.40, implying the stock looks roughly 7.8% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Ulta Beauty, Inc generated revenue of $12.7B at a net margin of 9.4%. Revenue grew 11.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 47.5%. Net debt stands at $1.8B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $346.33 (bear case) to $841.17 (bull case); at $515.57, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 28% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -22% fair-value upside, at -8%, ULTA screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($686.28) versus Dividend Discount ($3.89). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
Notify me when ULTA reaches fair value
Free. You confirm by email (double opt-in) and can unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and …
Full company description
Ulta Beauty, Inc. operates as a specialty beauty retailer in the United States, Mexico, and Kuwait. The company offers branded and private label beauty products, including cosmetics, fragrance, haircare, skincare, bath and body products, professional hair products, and salon styling tools through its Ulta Beauty stores, shop-in-shops, Ulta.com website, and its mobile applications. It also provides wellness products. The company was formerly known as ULTA Salon, Cosmetics & Fragrance, Inc. and changed its name to Ulta Beauty, Inc. in January 2017. Ulta Beauty, Inc. was incorporated in 1990 and is based in Bolingbrook, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Ulta Beauty, Inc reported revenue of $12.4B in FY2026 versus $8.6B in FY2022, a compound +9.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.2B in FY2026, compounding +4.0%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +12.6 pp · buybacks/dilution +3.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch ULTA: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Ulta Beauty (ULTA) Increases Yet Falls Behind Market: What Investors Need to Know
- Investors Heavily Search Ulta Beauty Inc. (ULTA): Here is What You Need to Know
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $544.22 | $423.35 | -22% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
| Canadian Tire Corporation CTC | C$216.35 | C$166.05 | -23% |
Compare Ulta Beauty, Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Frequently asked questions
Is Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of ULTA?
What is the quality score of ULTA?
What is the revenue of Ulta Beauty, Inc (ULTA)?
What is the net profit margin of ULTA?
How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
Track Ulta Beauty, Inc and try Pro for 14 days
One email gets you 14 days of full Pro (review alerts, the 35,000+ stock screener, the diversification check) plus the monthly Top-25 report of the most undervalued quality stocks. No card, cancel anytime.
Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. After 14 days you decide whether to stay.