Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $30.6B · ISIN US1475281036
What is Caseys General Stores Inc really worth?
Caseys General Stores Inc
CASY · US
A solid business, but trading 90% above our fair value of $398.90.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −10.8% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($506.80). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($214.59 to $506.80) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $167.86 – $916.28 · fair‑value band $214.59 – $506.80 · the $758.42 price screens above the $398.90 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Caseys General Stores Inc (CASY) currently trades at $758.42, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $398.90, implying the stock looks roughly 90.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $368.92 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $758.42 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $71.55, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Caseys General Stores Inc generated revenue of $17.0B at a net margin of 3.8%. Revenue grew 0.3% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 17.9%. Net debt stands at $2.4B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $214.59 (bear case) to $506.80 (bull case); at $758.42, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 16% below its 52-week high and 76% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −47%, CASY screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 4 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.30 per share, which is 1.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models ($368.92) versus Dividend Discount ($36.17). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 64 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 72
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products.
Full company description
Casey's General Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates convenience stores under the Casey's and Casey's General Store names in the United States. Its stores offer pizza, donuts, breakfast items, and sandwiches; and tobacco and nicotine products. The company's stores also provide soft drinks, energy, water, sports drinks, juices, coffee, and tea and dairy products; beer, wine, and spirits; snacks, candy, packaged bakery, and other food items; ice, ice cream, meals, and appetizers; health and beauty aids, automotive products, electronic accessories, and housewares; and breadsticks, wraps, chicken wings and tenders, breakfast croissants and biscuits, breakfast burritos, hash browns, burgers, cookies and brownies, and other seasonal items. In addition, its stores offer motor fuel for sale on a self-service basis; gasoline and diesel fuel; and ATM, lotto/lottery, and prepaid cards, as well as car wash services. The company also operates distribution centers. Casey's General Stores, Inc. was founded in 1959 and is headquartered in Ankeny, Iowa.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Caseys General Stores Inc reported revenue of $17.6B in FY2026 versus $13.0B in FY2022, a compound +7.9%/yr. Reported net income was $714M in FY2026, compounding +20.4%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +8.9 % · buybacks/dilution +0.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
CASY screens 90% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Casey's General Stores (CASY) Texas Football Tie Up Keeps Valuation Questions In Play
- Caseys General Stores (CASY) Stock May Be 16% Overvalued On Cash Flow Strength
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | −11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $34.72 | $35.52 | +2% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Murphy USA Inc MUSA | $574.12 | $423.35 | −26% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 116.00 TWD | 80.98 TWD | −30% |
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