Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.4B
Murphy USA Inc
MUSA · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated yesterday
Share price −8.0% over the past month.
A solid business, but screening 25% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($550.35). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($268.10 to $550.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $125.93 – $622.78 · fair‑value band $268.10 – $550.35 · the $563.16 price screens above the $423.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) currently trades at $563.16, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $423.35, implying the stock looks roughly 24.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Murphy USA Inc generated revenue of $17.3B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 80.4%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $268.10 (bear case) to $550.35 (bull case); at $563.16, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 8% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -20% fair-value upside, at -25%, MUSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($433.13) versus Asset-Based ($22.62). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 76
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores.
Full company description
Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores. It operates retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest areas of the United States. Murphy USA Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Murphy USA Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2025 versus $17.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $471M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +8.9 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MUSA screens 25% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Murphy USA Q2 Earnings Call Highlights
- MUSA Q2 Earnings Call Centers on a Higher Fuel Margin Floor
- Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Resilient Fuel Margins and Loyalty ...
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Q2 Earnings: How Key Metrics Compare to Wall Street Estimates
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 223 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$93.19 | C$75.00 | -20% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $839.03 | $398.90 | -52% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $245.15 | $162.63 | -34% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $531.89 | $475.40 | -11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | -11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $83.00 | $108.04 | +30% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | -27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $36.43 | $35.52 | -2% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 109.50 TWD | 80.98 TWD | -26% |
| Canadian Tire Corporation CTC | C$216.35 | C$166.05 | -23% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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