Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $11.4B · ISIN US6267551025
What is Murphy USA Inc really worth?
Murphy USA Inc
MUSA · US
A solid business, but trading 23% above our fair value of $423.35.
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 19, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 16 days ago
Share price −11.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($268.10 to $550.35) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $125.93 – $622.78 · fair‑value band $268.10 – $550.35 · the $522.30 price screens above the $423.35 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 19, 2026.
Analysis
Murphy USA Inc (MUSA) currently trades at $522.30, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $423.35, implying the stock looks roughly 23.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $433.13 per share, and 3 of the 24 models we run sit above the $522.30 price. Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $165.57, and 21 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Murphy USA Inc generated revenue of $17.3B at a net margin of 3.2%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 80.4%. Net debt stands at $3.2B. Fundamentals as of Aug 19, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $268.10 (bear case) to $550.35 (bull case); at $522.30, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 14% below its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −11% fair-value upside, at −19%, MUSA screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $17.91 per share, which is 4.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($433.13) versus Asset-Based ($22.62). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 19, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 54 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 70
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores.
Full company description
Murphy USA Inc., together with subsidiaries, engages in marketing of retail motor fuel products and convenience merchandise. The company operates retail stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, as well as operates non-fuel convenience stores. It operates retail gasoline stores principally in the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest areas of the United States. Murphy USA Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Murphy USA Inc reported revenue of $19.4B in FY2025 versus $17.4B in FY2021, a compound +2.8%/yr. Reported net income was $471M in FY2025, compounding +4.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.5 % · buybacks/dilution +8.5 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
MUSA screens 23% overvalued. Compare with Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Murphy USA to trial automated White Castle kiosks
- Murphy USA Debuts Automated Retail Technologies Foodservice Platform Featuring White Castle
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Is Up 9.4% After Dividend Hike And Strong Q2 Results - What's Changed
- Murphy USA (MUSA) Stock Looks Above Fair Value Following Its 272% Run
Peer Group
Specialty Retail · 219 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Specialty Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 44/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Specialty Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 19, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc ATD | C$89.93 | C$104.32 | +16% |
| Casey's General Stores, Inc CASY | $755.47 | $398.90 | −47% |
| Williams-Sonoma, Inc WSM | $235.09 | $162.63 | −31% |
| Ulta Beauty, Inc ULTA | $537.10 | $475.40 | −11% |
| DICK'S Sporting Goods, Inc DKS | $202.66 | $181.10 | −11% |
| Best Buy Co BBY | $82.44 | $108.04 | +31% |
| China Tourism Group 601888 | ¥54.97 | ¥40.40 | −27% |
| Tractor Supply Company TSCO | $34.72 | $35.52 | +2% |
| Five Below, Inc FIVE | $259.41 | $117.29 | −55% |
| Taiwan Mobile Co 3045 | 116.00 TWD | 80.98 TWD | −30% |
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