VSE Corporation (VSEC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.7B
VSE Corporation
VSEC · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 23 valuation models · updated today
Share price +10.7% over the past month.
Below-average quality, and screening another 87% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $32.42 – $242.60 · fair‑value band $25.53 – $42.54 · the $230.90 price screens above the $29.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
VSE Corporation (VSEC) currently trades at $230.90, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.75, implying the stock looks roughly 87.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, VSE Corporation generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. Net debt stands at $273M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $25.53 (bear case) to $42.54 (bull case); at $230.90, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at -60% fair-value upside, at -87%, VSEC screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 23 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($40.04) versus Dividend Discount ($4.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 60
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets.
Full company description
VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets. It offers its services to global client base of commercial airlines, regional airlines, air cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
VSE Corporation reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.5M in FY2025, compounding +61.0%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.1 pp · buybacks/dilution −5.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
VSEC screens 87% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Why VSE (VSEC) Is Up 17.7% After Raising 2026 Revenue Guidance and Profitability Outlook
- VSE Corp (VSEC) (Q2 2026) Earnings Call Highlights: Record Revenue and EBITDA Soar 65% and 98%
- VSE Corporation Declares Quarterly Cash Dividend
- Is VSE (VSEC) Still Below Fair Value As Strong Q2 Results Lift Guidance?
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 225 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $365.33 | $116.71 | -68% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $222.76 | $88.37 | -60% |
| Airbus SE 1AIR | €213.05 | €86.20 | -60% |
| The Boeing Company BA | $231.20 | $49.09 | -79% |
| China CSSC Holdings 600150 | ¥33.89 | ¥21.90 | -35% |
| HD Hyundai Heavy Industries Co 329180 | 496,000 KRW | 272,966 KRW | -45% |
| Hanwha Aerospace Co 012450 | 1,156,000 KRW | 573,468 KRW | -50% |
| ASELSAN Elektronik Sanayi ve Ticaret Anonim Sirketi ASELS | 346.75 TRY | 130.70 TRY | -62% |
| Saab AB SAABB | kr 680.10 | kr 212.84 | -69% |
| Kongsberg Gruppen ASA KOG | kr 330.10 | kr 101.07 | -69% |
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Frequently asked questions
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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