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VSE Corporation (VSEC) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · US · Market cap $5.7B · ISIN US9182841000

What is VSE Corporation really worth?

VC VSE Corporation logo VSE Corporation VSEC · US
Price$202.58
Fair Value$29.75
Upside−85.3% ⚠
Quality29/100

Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.

Below-average quality, and trading another 581% above our fair value of $29.75.

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Strengths

✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Expensive Growth (revenue 5y +10.9 %/yr)
!Thin margins · 4.2% net margin
!Trails peers (2/15)
!Narrow moat 39/100
!Evidence only low, so the estimate is less certain
!Weak on past: 15 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 4 out of 100

For context

·0.20% dividend yield
Evidence: Low Range $25.53 – $42.54

Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026

From 23 valuation models · updated today

Share price −5.4% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($42.54). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Weak quality (29/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts.
  • The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$243.48 $32.42 Fair Value $29.75 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $32.42 – $243.48 · fair‑value band $25.53 – $42.54 · the $202.58 price screens above the $29.75 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

VSE Corporation (VSEC) currently trades at $202.58, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $29.75, implying the stock looks roughly 580.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 29/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $40.04 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $202.58 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at $4.45, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.

Over the trailing twelve months, VSE Corporation generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 4.2%. Revenue grew 26.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 3.8%. Net debt stands at $273M. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $25.53 (bear case) to $42.54 (bull case); at $202.58, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The last reported earnings sit well below what analysts expect (earnings in transition, for example after write-downs or an earnings dip); whether the stock is cheap or expensive hinges on the expected recovery actually arriving. Read the fair value with that caveat. The share trades about 13% below its 52-week high and 64% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −85%, VSEC screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.65 per share, which is 5.6 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Note: the current price implies far more future growth than the conservative anchors of our models allow (base growth is deliberately capped, we do not regard such extreme rates as sustainable). Our models are not designed for expectations this high; that is why the individual models scatter extremely ($4.45 to $68.72). Read the values as a conservative anchor, not as a price target.
Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
Residual Income best evidence $37.19 $36.18 $31.14 76
Owner Earnings $21.20 $38.52 $65.02 74
EPV $27.77 $33.37 $38.20 74
All 23 models by family
DCF Models
Owner Earnings $21.20 $38.52 $65.02 74
5Y Revenue Exit $18.37 $42.02 $73.65 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $26.44 $57.60 $95.53 72
5Y P/E Exit $10.57 $26.95 $44.89 67
10Y Revenue Exit $8.35 $27.58 $55.90 61
10Y EBITDA Exit $14.68 $38.34 $72.71 64
10Y P/E Exit $4.66 $17.18 $33.79 59
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $12.96 $46.79 $63.08 64
Lynch FV $11.08 $15.82 $20.57 61
PEG = 1.0 $11.08 $15.82 $20.57 57
EPV $27.77 $33.37 $38.20 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $2.59 $5.15 $7.80 67
DDM Multi-Stage $2.59 $4.45 $5.44 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $30.03 $40.04 $50.05 63
P/S Multiple $24.31 $32.41 $40.51 58
P/B Multiple $24.31 $32.41 $40.51 55
EV/EBIT $49.10 $68.04 $86.97 66
EV/EBITDA $49.61 $68.72 $87.82 67
EV/Revenue $32.84 $50.22 $67.59 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $25.64 $34.36 $51.28 54
Economic Profit
Residual Income best evidence $37.19 $36.18 $31.14 76
ROIC Compounder $27.77 $33.37 $38.20 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $21.05 $30.07 $39.09 67

Widest divergence: Multiples ($40.04) versus Dividend Discount ($4.45). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 70.1
P/S ratio 3.37 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $2.89 price ÷ EPS = P/E 70.1
Dividend yield 0.2% payout 13.8%
Net margin 4.8% FY2025
Return on equity 3.8% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 5.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $1.2B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +26.8% 3y avg +18.4%
EPS growth (YoY) −7.0%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $5.7M FY2025
Net debt $273M FY2025 · ≈ 47.9 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 29/100

Of which business quality 31 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 48

Profitability 27
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 46
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 10
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 66
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 33
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 25
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 54
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 64
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 0
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets.

Full company description

VSE Corporation engages in providing aviation aftermarket parts distribution and maintenance, repair, and overhaul services for air transportation assets for commercial and government markets. It offers its services to global client base of commercial airlines, regional airlines, air cargo transporters, MRO integrators and providers, aviation manufacturers, corporate and private aircraft owners, and fixed-base operators. The company was incorporated in 1959 and is headquartered in Miramar, Florida.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

VSE Corporation reported revenue of $1.1B in FY2025 versus $751M in FY2021, a compound +10.3%/yr. Reported net income was $53.5M in FY2025, compounding +61.0%/yr from FY2021. FY2021 was a trough year, so the rate overstates the trend.

Growth Quality 62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
$1.1B
Latest YoY
+3.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+18.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.6%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years, adjusted) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
−5.2% (−5.4 + 0.2)
Revenue +10.3%/yr
FY21 $751M
FY22 $669M
FY23 $860M
FY24 $1.1B
FY25 $1.1B
Net income +61.0%/yr
FY21 $8.0M
FY22 $28.1M
FY23 $39.1M
FY24 $30.5M
FY25 $53.5M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +0.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +1.3 %

of which total revenue +7.1 % · buybacks/dilution −5.4 %

EBIT margin +2.4 %
Tax rate +2.2 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −5.1 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

VSEC screens 581% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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VSE Corporation · Fair Value
$29.75 −581%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "VSE Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/VSEC

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 29 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside −85% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 4% · Below median
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 4% · Below median
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Above median
Revenue growth 27% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.2% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.20× · Higher than median

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 70.1× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 3.98× · Pricier than median
P/S (TTM) 4.85× · Pricier than median
P/FCF 1,002.3× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 33.0× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 3.00× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE100 · sector 50
PAST15 · sector 38
HEALTH90 · sector 93
DIVIDEND4 · sector 16

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $335.71 $116.71 −65%
RTX Corporation RTX $212.08 $88.37 −58%
Airbus SE AIR €213.00 €117.01 −45%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $565.89 $419.01 −26%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $264.85 $50.43 −81%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $379.32 $274.32 −28%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $545.57 $356.59 −35%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,235 $571.03 −54%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $262.82 $146.55 −44%
Thales S.A HO €243.70 €171.13 −30%

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Frequently asked questions

Is VSE Corporation (VSEC) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 5, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $29.75 versus a price of $202.58, about −85% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of VSEC?
Our model-based fair value for VSE Corporation is $29.75 (as of Sep 5, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $202.58.
What is the quality score of VSEC?
VSE Corporation has a Quality Score of 29/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of VSE Corporation (VSEC)?
VSE Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $1.2B (latest available figure, as of Sep 5, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of VSEC?
The net profit margin of VSE Corporation is about 4.2%, meaning it keeps roughly 4.2% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does VSE Corporation pay a dividend?
VSE Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.20% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 5, 2026).
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