AAR Corp (AIR) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of AAR Corp stock $47.41, price $96.67, upside -51.0%, quality 40 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.64 – $153.71 · fair‑value band $21.74 – $87.14 · the $96.67 price screens above the $47.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 23, 2026.
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AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services.
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The company leases and sells aircraft components and replacement parts; and designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets.
The company also provides airframe maintenance services, such as airframe inspection, painting services, line maintenance, airframe modifications, structural repairs, avionics service and installation, exterior, and interior refurbishment services; component repair services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, engine and airframe accessories, and interior refurbishment; and engineering services, such as integration, certification and procurement.
In addition, it develops aircraft components and parts; designs proprietary designated engineering representative repairs; and provides integrated software solutions comprising Trax, a cloud-based electronic enterprise resource platform, as well as a suite of paperless mobility apps for automating workflows.
Further, the company engages in the fleet management and operation of customer-owned aircraft; provision of supply chain logistics services, such as material planning, sourcing, logistics, information and program management, and parts and component repair and overhaul services, as well as engineering, design, and system integration services for specialized command and control systems; and flight hour component inventory and repair services.
Additionally, it offers containers and shelters for military and humanitarian tactical deployment activities; and shelters, such as stationary and vehicle-mounted applications. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Stock analysis
AAR Corp (AIR) currently trades at $96.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $47.41, 51.0% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $89.81 per share, and 2 of the 24 models we run sit above the $96.67 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $13.75, and 22 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $21.74 (bear) to $87.14 (bull), the price of $96.67 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 40/100 (below-average quality), in the Industrials sector.
Expensive Growth: The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
AAR Corp reported revenue of $3.3B in FY2026 versus $1.8B in FY2022, a compound +16.1%/yr. Reported net income was $188M in FY2026, compounding +24.3%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $3.8B Mid · P/E ratio 19.8 · P/S ratio 1.10 · EPS (TTM) $4.88 · Net margin 5.6% · Return on equity 12.9% · Return on assets (EBIT) 6.7% · Operating margin 8.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 41 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 37% below its 52-week high and 25% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −51%, AIR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$21.74Fair Value $47.41Bull$87.14
Price $96.67 · Upside -51.0%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 5 months old). Earnings retained since then ($1.94 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Best data coverage
EPV$25.58$32.40$38.2074
FCF DCF$2.96$15.34$33.2672
Owner Earnings$11.10$27.83$52.0672
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF$2.96$15.34$33.2672
Owner Earnings$11.10$27.83$52.0672
5Y Revenue Exit$25.29$59.85$105.1869
5Y EBITDA Exit$35.11$78.58$130.5572
5Y P/E Exit$29.73$68.32$109.8268
10Y Revenue Exit$14.65$43.25$83.7262
10Y EBITDA Exit$22.40$55.78$102.5264
10Y P/E Exit$19.11$48.92$87.1660
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd$31.75$108.49$145.5764
Lynch FV$24.94$35.63$46.3261
PEG = 1.0$24.94$35.63$46.3257
EPV$25.58$32.40$38.2074
Multiples
P/E Multiple$73.55$98.07$122.5863
P/S Multiple$59.54$79.39$99.2358
P/B Multiple$70.69$94.26$117.8255
EV/EBIT$63.17$91.78$120.4065
EV/EBITDA$60.46$88.17$115.8867
EV/Revenue$38.60$64.86$91.1152
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham)$1.48$2.24$2.8055
Growth DCF
Growth DCF$3.10$13.75$28.0871
Rev-Margin DCF$25.29$59.04$98.5670
Economic Profit
Residual Income$37.24$41.41$52.7871
ROIC Compounder$25.58$32.40$38.2072
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E$62.87$89.81$116.7567
The fair value above starts from this blend and is adjusted for dilution from new shares.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.62/100
The company is growing, but growth may require heavy reinvestment or weak cash conversion.
Revenue growth 1 year
+19.0%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+18.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+14.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +7.1% a year
Revenue growth 40 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+6.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+17.6%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.36.1% vs 13.1%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.2% → 8%
2026 sits 262% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+50.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+7.0%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +46.7% a year for the price and +4.5% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business benefits from expanding its aftermarket platform via acquisitions amid strong air travel demand, yet remains hampered by weak profitability and high leverage in a competitive sector.
Main risk: Integration risks from adding the sizable new MRO business could disrupt operations and margins in the cyclical aviation aftermarket industry.
AAR is building a larger aviation aftermarket platform by acquiring a controlling interest in MRO Holdings and adding heavy maintenance facilities to its parts distribution and repair operations. Strong air travel demand supports recent sales growth across segments, yet our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the deal's cost synergies and margin lift outweigh the risks of integrating a sizable new business in this cyclical industry?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/14 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score40 · Bottom 25%
Fair Value upside−51.0% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.9% · Above median
Return on assets5.6% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)5.6% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)8.1% · Below median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)19.8× · Cheapest 25%
P/B2.25× · Cheaper than median
P/S (12 months)1.10× · Cheapest 25%
Price / free cash flow115.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA12.9× · Cheaper than median
PEG2.40× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)52· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)74· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)0· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "AAR Corp Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/AIR
Frequently asked questions
Is AAR Corp (AIR) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 23, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $47.41 versus a price of $96.67, about −51% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of AIR?
Our model-based fair value for AAR Corp is $47.41 (as of Oct 23, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $96.67.
What is the quality score of AIR?
AAR Corp has a Quality Score of 40/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for AAR Corp (AIR)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $47.41 (as of Oct 23, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $21.74, optimistic scenario $87.14. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the AAR Corp stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $47.41, about −51% upside versus a price of $96.67 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $21.74, optimistic scenario $87.14. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of AAR Corp (AIR)?
AAR Corp reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $3.5B (latest available figure, as of Oct 23, 2026).
What growth is priced into AAR Corp (AIR)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, AAR Corp would have to grow free cash flow by +50.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 10.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +14.9 % per year. As of Oct 23, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of AIR use?
Our models discount AAR Corp at 10.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (mid), damped by beta 1.13, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For AAR Corp that is +50.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (10.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has AAR Corp (AIR) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at AAR Corp grew +14.9 % a year. The price currently implies +50.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of AAR Corp (AIR) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into AAR Corp (+50.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 0.87 %: that much free cash flow AAR Corp produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (10.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For AAR Corp it is $47.41 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026), against a price of $96.67. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is AAR Corp stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 23, 2026, AIR trades above its calculated fair value: price $96.67, fair value $47.41, a gap of about −51% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of AIR?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($96.67); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($47.41). For AAR Corp the two are $49.26 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is AAR Corp worth?
The market values AAR Corp at about $3.8B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 23, 2026). Per share that is $96.67; our models calculate a fair value of $47.41 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about AIR?
Our models span a range for AAR Corp: cautious scenario $21.74, base $47.41, optimistic $87.14 per share (as of Oct 23, 2026, price $96.67). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of AIR?
AAR Corp trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 19.8 (as of Oct 23, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $47.41 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 2.4, P/B 2.3, P/S 1.1, EV/EBITDA 12.9.
What is the PEG ratio of AIR?
The PEG ratio of AAR Corp is 2.40 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 23, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Balance-sheet figures for AAR Corp (as of Oct 23, 2026): return on equity 12.9%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 40/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is AIR from its 52-week high?
AAR Corp trades at $96.67, about 37% below its 52-week high of $153.71 and 25% above the low of $77.35 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $47.41 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to AAR Corp?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is AAR Corp stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 23, 2026: price $96.67, calculated fair value $47.41 (−51%), Quality Score 40/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of AIR calculated?
We run AAR Corp through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $47.41, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. AAR Corp itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $96.67. Our model-based fair value is $47.41, about −51% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with AAR Corp right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($87.14). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Weak quality (40/100) and above fair value at the same time, the margin of safety is missing on both counts. The model range is unusually wide ($21.74 to $87.14). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
Where does the earnings growth of AAR Corp (AIR) come from?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp grew +4.6 % a year from 2016 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +5.1 %, EBIT margin +6.0 %, tax rate +0.2 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −6.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of AAR Corp
How large is the market capitalisation of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The market capitalisation of AAR Corp is $3.8B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The price-to-sales ratio of AAR Corp is 1.10 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of AAR Corp (AIR)?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp are $4.88 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 19.8). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The net margin of AAR Corp is 5.6% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The return on equity (ROE) of AAR Corp is 12.9% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of AAR Corp (AIR)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of AAR Corp is 6.7% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of AAR Corp (AIR)?
The operating margin of AAR Corp is 8.1% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at AAR Corp (AIR)?
Revenue at AAR Corp is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +18.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at AAR Corp (AIR)?
Earnings per share at AAR Corp are growing +4.4% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does AAR Corp (AIR) carry?
The net debt of AAR Corp is $911M (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 27.4 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 23, 2026