AAR Corp (AIR) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $5.3B · ISIN US0003611052
What is AAR Corp really worth?
AAR Corp
AIR · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A solid business, but trading 1,679% above our fair value of $7.06.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 20 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Share price −15.9% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($9.44). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (51/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- A fairly wide model range ($4.95 to $9.44) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $31.64 – $153.71 · fair‑value band $4.95 – $9.44 · the $125.66 price screens above the $7.06 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
AAR Corp (AIR) currently trades at $125.66, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $7.06, implying the stock looks roughly 1,679.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 51/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $69.93 per share, and 0 of the 20 models we run sit above the $125.66 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $2.27, and 20 of the 20 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, AAR Corp generated revenue of $3.1B at a net margin of 5.5%. Revenue grew 24.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 12.1%. Net debt stands at $951M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $4.95 (bear case) to $9.44 (bull case); at $125.66, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 1% below its 52-week high and 88% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −94%, AIR screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 12 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $4.68 per share, which is 66.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 20 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($69.93) versus Earnings-Based ($2.27). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 68
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services.
Full company description
AAR Corp. provides products and services to commercial aviation, government, and defense markets in North America, Europe, Africa, Asia, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Parts Supply, Repair & Engineering, Integrated Solutions, and Expeditionary Services. The company leases and sells aircraft components and replacement parts; and designs, manufactures, and repairs transportation pallets. The company also provides airframe maintenance services, such as airframe inspection, painting services, line maintenance, airframe modifications, structural repairs, avionics service and installation, exterior, and interior refurbishment services; component repair services, including maintenance, repair, and overhaul services, engine and airframe accessories, and interior refurbishment; and engineering services, such as integration, certification and procurement. In addition, it develops aircraft components and parts; designs proprietary designated engineering representative repairs; and provides integrated software solutions comprising Trax, a cloud-based electronic enterprise resource platform, as well as a suite of paperless mobility apps for automating workflows. Further, the company engages in the fleet management and operation of customer-owned aircraft; provision of supply chain logistics services, such as material planning, sourcing, logistics, information and program management, and parts and component repair and overhaul services, as well as engineering, design, and system integration services for specialized command and control systems; and flight hour component inventory and repair services. Additionally, it offers containers and shelters for military and humanitarian tactical deployment activities; and shelters, such as stationary and vehicle-mounted applications. AAR Corp. was founded in 1951 and is headquartered in Wood Dale, Illinois.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
AAR Corp reported revenue of $2.8B in FY2025 versus $1.7B in FY2021, a compound +13.9%/yr. Reported net income was $12.5M in FY2025, compounding −23.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +2.8 % · buybacks/dilution +0.4 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
AIR screens 1,679% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,155 | €314.04 | −73% |
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