Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Lockheed Martin Corporation stock $440, price $590, upside -25.5%, quality 67 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $285.40 – $668.17 · fair‑value band $286.13 – $570.63 · the $589.91 price screens above the $439.62 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Lockheed Martin Corporation, an aerospace and defense company, engages in the research, design, development, manufacture, integration, and sustainment of technology systems, products, and services in the United States, Europe, Asia, the Middle East, and internationally.
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The company operates through four segments: Aeronautics; Missiles and Fire Control (MFC); Rotary and Mission Systems (RMS); and Space. The Aeronautics segment offers combat and air mobility aircraft, unmanned air vehicles, and related technologies.
The MFC segment provides air and missile defense systems; tactical missiles and precision strike weapon systems; logistics; fire control systems; mission operations support, readiness, engineering support, and integration services; and ground vehicles.
The RMS segment offers military and commercial helicopters, surface ships, sea and land-based missile defense systems, radar and laser systems, sea and air-based mission and combat systems, command and control mission solutions, cyber solutions, simulation and training solutions, and services and supports surface ships.
The Space segment provides satellites; space transportation systems; strategic, advanced strike, and defensive systems; and classified systems and services in support of national security systems.
This segment also provides network-enabled situational awareness and integrates space and ground global systems to help its customers gather, analyze, and securely distribute critical intelligence data.
It serves primarily serves the U.S. government and international customers, as well as foreign military sales contracted through the U.S. government. The company was formerly known as The Lockheed Corporation and changed its name to Lockheed Martin Corporation in March 1995.
Lockheed Martin Corporation was founded in 1912 and is based in Bethesda, Maryland.
Stock analysis
Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) currently trades at $589.91, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $439.62, 25.5% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $454.33 per share, and 0 of the 23 models we run sit above the $589.91 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $116.02, and 23 of the 23 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $286.13 (bear) to $570.63 (bull), the price of $589.91 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 67/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Lockheed Martin Corporation reported revenue of $75.1B in FY2025 versus $67.0B in FY2021, a compound +2.9%/yr. Reported net income was $5.0B in FY2025, compounding −5.6%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $136B Large · P/E ratio 21.7 · P/S ratio 1.77 · EPS (TTM) $27.13 · Dividend yield 2.3% · Net margin 8.2% · Return on equity 89.2% · Return on assets (EBIT) 15.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 76 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at −25%, LMT screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$286.13Fair Value $439.62Bull$570.63
Price $589.91 · Upside -25.5%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($10.93 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.69/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+5.7%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+2.8%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.4% a year
Revenue growth 33 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+4.8%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+1.3%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year−1.0%
Dividend (yield on the price)2.3%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.−1.0% vs 6.6%, slowing
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.13% → 10%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Price in line with expectations
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and about what analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+7.0%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+5.6%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +4.5% a year for the price and +3.1% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: Durable advantages in contracts and scale form the core strength, while elevated leverage with debt exceeding equity stands as the main weakness.
Main risk: Elevated leverage with debt exceeding equity risks limiting financial flexibility and the capacity to sustain investment in core missile programs.
Lockheed Martin is committing hundreds of millions of its own cash to develop the PAC-3 Edge, a next-generation interceptor for hypersonic threats that advances in the Army's Future Interceptor program with testing slated for 2027. This extends its core missile defense business into more demanding capabilities amid rising global demand. Our models currently see the stock as overvalued. Will the self-funded bets on future performance deliver enough growth to justify the scale of investment?
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 12/14 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score67 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−25.5% · Above median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)89.2% · Top 25%
Return on assets8.4% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)8.2% · Above median
Operating margin (12 months)12.0% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)10.5% · Below median
Dividend yield (12 months)2.3% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity3.06× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)21.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B20.28× · book value is mostly goodwill ⓘGoodwill and other intangible assets are larger than the equity. The book value mainly reflects prices paid for past acquisitions, so we do not rank this P/B against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)1.77× · Cheaper than median
Price / free cash flow19.7× · Cheaper than median
EV/EBITDA15.8× · Cheaper than median
PEG1.02× · Cheaper than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)53· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)46· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Lockheed Martin Corporation Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/LMT
Frequently asked questions
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $439.62 versus a price of $589.91, about −25% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of LMT?
Our model-based fair value for Lockheed Martin Corporation is $439.62 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $589.91.
What is the quality score of LMT?
Lockheed Martin Corporation has a Quality Score of 67/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $439.62 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 23 valuation models. Cautious scenario $286.13, optimistic scenario $570.63. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Lockheed Martin Corporation stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $439.62, about −25% upside versus a price of $589.91 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $286.13, optimistic scenario $570.63. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Lockheed Martin Corporation reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $77.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Lockheed Martin Corporation pay a dividend?
Lockheed Martin Corporation currently shows a dividend yield of 2.31% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Lockheed Martin Corporation would have to grow free cash flow by +7.0 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +2.8 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of LMT use?
Our models discount Lockheed Martin Corporation at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.10, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Lockheed Martin Corporation that is +7.0 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Lockheed Martin Corporation grew +2.8 % a year. The price currently implies +7.0 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Lockheed Martin Corporation (+7.0 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 5.07 %: that much free cash flow Lockheed Martin Corporation produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Lockheed Martin Corporation it is $439.62 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $589.91. It is the blended result of 23 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, LMT trades above its calculated fair value: price $589.91, fair value $439.62, a gap of about −25% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of LMT?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($589.91); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($439.62). For Lockheed Martin Corporation the two are $150.29 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Lockheed Martin Corporation worth?
The market values Lockheed Martin Corporation at about $136B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $589.91; our models calculate a fair value of $439.62 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about LMT?
Our models span a range for Lockheed Martin Corporation: cautious scenario $286.13, base $439.62, optimistic $570.63 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $589.91). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of LMT?
Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 21.7 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $439.62 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings, 4 of the years ex one-offs: 19.8. Other multiples: PEG 1.0, P/B 20.3, P/S 1.8, EV/EBITDA 15.8.
What is the PEG ratio of LMT?
The PEG ratio of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 1.02 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Balance-sheet figures for Lockheed Martin Corporation (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 89.2%, debt of 3.06 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 67/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is LMT from its 52-week high?
Lockheed Martin Corporation trades at $589.91, about 12% below its 52-week high of $668.17 and 37% above the low of $431.38 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $439.62 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Lockheed Martin Corporation?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, Howmet Aerospace Inc, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Lockheed Martin Corporation stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $589.91, calculated fair value $439.62 (−25%), Quality Score 67/100, from 23 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of LMT calculated?
We run Lockheed Martin Corporation through 23 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $439.62, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Lockheed Martin Corporation itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $589.91. Our model-based fair value is $439.62, about −25% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Lockheed Martin Corporation right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($570.63). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (67/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. A fairly wide model range ($286.13 to $570.63) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Where does the earnings growth of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) come from?
Earnings per share at Lockheed Martin Corporation grew +6.7 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +9.0 %, EBIT margin −1.7 %, tax rate +2.9 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −3.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Lockheed Martin Corporation
How large is the market capitalisation of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The market capitalisation of Lockheed Martin Corporation is $136B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 1.77 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Earnings per share at Lockheed Martin Corporation are $27.13 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 21.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The dividend yield of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 2.3% (payout 50.3%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The net margin of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 8.2% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 89.2% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 15.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
The operating margin of Lockheed Martin Corporation is 12.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Revenue at Lockheed Martin Corporation is growing +10.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +4.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT)?
Earnings per share at Lockheed Martin Corporation are growing +444% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Lockheed Martin Corporation (LMT) carry?
The net debt of Lockheed Martin Corporation is $17.6B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 2.5 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 21, 2026