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Thales S.A. (HO) Fair Value & Analysis

Industrials · FR · Market cap €45.2B · ISIN FR0000121329

What is Thales S.A. really worth?

TS Thales S.A. HO · PA
Price€233.60
Fair Value€171.13
Upside−26.7%
Quality64/100

A solid business, but trading 37% above our fair value of €171.13.

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Strengths

Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +5.4 %/yr)
Low debt · generates free cash flow
Ranks above peers (9/15)

Risks

!Thin margins · 7.6% net margin
!Moderate moat 54/100

For context

·1.63% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range €128.35 – €213.91

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −10.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€213.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

€271.90 €64.44 Fair Value €171.13 Jul 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range €64.44 – €271.90 · fair‑value band €128.35 – €213.91 · the €233.60 price screens above the €171.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

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Analysis

Thales S.A. (HO) currently trades at €233.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €171.13, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €182.51 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €233.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €25.98, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Thales S.A. generated revenue of €22.1B at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from €128.35 (bear case) to €213.91 (bull case); at €233.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −27%, HO screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €2.94 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear Bear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull Bull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF €141.08 €204.53 €295.93 80
Growth DCF €144.87 €203.41 €283.91 79
Owner Earnings €111.76 €161.73 €233.70 76
All 25 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF €141.08 €204.53 €295.93 80
Owner Earnings €111.76 €161.73 €233.70 76
5Y Revenue Exit €111.96 €163.25 €226.05 73
5Y EBITDA Exit €140.89 €215.10 €298.16 75
5Y P/E Exit €124.90 €186.44 €247.85 71
10Y Revenue Exit €118.70 €166.78 €225.90 67
10Y EBITDA Exit €139.69 €201.96 €278.81 69
10Y P/E Exit €129.66 €182.51 €241.90 64
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd €55.41 €136.25 €176.41 65
PEG = 1.0 €24.53 €35.04 €45.55 57
EPV €87.61 €101.69 €114.01 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM €34.88 €63.91 €102.60 66
DDM Multi-Stage €34.88 €52.50 €71.70 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple €128.35 €171.13 €213.91 63
P/S Multiple €103.90 €138.53 €173.16 58
P/B Multiple €103.90 €138.53 €173.16 55
EV/EBIT €140.83 €186.71 €232.60 66
EV/EBITDA €160.02 €212.31 €264.60 67
EV/Revenue €101.42 €143.52 €185.63 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) €19.39 €25.98 €38.78 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF €144.87 €203.41 €283.91 79
Rev-Margin DCF €111.96 €164.94 €222.73 73
Economic Profit
Residual Income €52.02 €66.53 €228.64 64
ROIC Compounder €91.49 €111.47 €132.91 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E €98.42 €140.60 €182.78 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models (€182.51) versus Asset-Based (€25.98). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 28.7
P/S ratio 2.17 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) €8.14 price ÷ EPS = P/E 28.7
Dividend yield 1.6% payout 46.7%
Net margin 7.6% FY2025
Return on equity 21.1% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 4.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.5% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) €22.1B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +7.1% 3y avg +8.0%
EPS growth (YoY) +151%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow €2.6B FY2025
Net debt €1.7B FY2025 · ≈ 0.6 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 64/100

Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54

Profitability 43
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 60
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 72
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 43
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 85
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 83
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 45
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 37
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 87
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide.

Full company description

Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide. The company offers advance air defence systems, combat systems, defence onboard electronics c4isr solutions, command and control solutions, mission and surveillance systems, airborne optronics, and airspace protection solutions; collaborative combat, intelligence, connectivity and cloud, country and force protection, military vehicle, collaborative artillery, and augmented soldier solutions; robotics and drones; above-water combat, unmanned maritime, and underwater warfare systems; naval support and services; and joint systems. It also provides mission-critical and radio communications; cyber defence and electronic warfare solutions; protection systems; unmanned aerial vehicle systems; digital transformation services; and Geonav IoT for real-time indoor/outdoor precise navigations. In addition, it offers digital identity and security solutions comprising banking and payment, data protection, digital identity, identity and access management, biometric, mobile, software monetization, secure IoT solutions, and IoT connecting and security solutions. Further, it provides air traffic management solutions; flight decks and avionics equipment and functions; in-flight entertainment, connectivity, and services; drone and navigation solutions; support and services for civil aviation; connectivity solutions; antennas; and solutions for internal and external aircraft lighting. It offers lasers; microwave and imaging sub-systems; microelectronic solutions; mobile satellite, environmental testing and evaluation laboratory, and training and simulation services; cryogenic technology and coolers; silicon security solutions; and designs, operates, and delivers satellite-based technologies. The company was formerly known as Thomson-CSF and changed its name to Thales S.A. in 2000. Thales S.A. was founded in 1893 and is based in Meudon, France.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years

Thales S.A. reported revenue of €22.1B in FY2025 versus €16.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.

Growth Quality 75/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2025)
€22.1B
Latest YoY
+7.6%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+8.0%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+5.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (24Y) Measures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+3.3%
Value creation/yr (5Y) Earnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+11.3% (9.7 + 1.6)
Revenue +8.1%/yr
FY21 €16.2B
FY22 €17.6B
FY23 €18.4B
FY24 €20.6B
FY25 €22.1B
Net income +11.4%/yr
FY21 €1.1B
FY22 €1.1B
FY23 €1.0B
FY24 €1.4B
FY25 €1.7B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2014-2025) +6.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +4.5 %

of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %

EBIT margin +2.8 %
Tax rate +0.6 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) −1.6 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

HO screens 37% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →

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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Thales S.A. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/HO

Earlier news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −27% · Top 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 21% · Top 25%
Return on assets 3% · Below median
Net margin (TTM) 8% · Above median
Operating margin (TTM) 10% · Above median
Revenue growth 7% · Below median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.6% · Above median
Debt / equity 0.48× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 28.7× · Cheaper than median
P/B 6.59× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.37× · Cheaper than median
P/FCF 19.9× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA 17.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG 1.74× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 0
FUTURE36 · sector 50
PAST84 · sector 38
HEALTH76 · sector 93
DIVIDEND33 · sector 16

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

Weapons Defense

Similar stocks

10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
General Electric Company GE $335.71 $116.71 −65%
RTX Corporation RTX $212.08 $88.37 −58%
Airbus SE AIR €213.00 €117.01 −45%
Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT $565.89 $419.01 −26%
Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM $264.85 $50.43 −81%
General Dynamics Corporation GD $379.32 $274.32 −28%
Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC $545.57 $356.59 −35%
TransDigm Group TDG $1,235 $571.03 −54%
L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX $262.82 $146.55 −44%
Rheinmetall AG RHM €1,155 €314.04 −73%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Thales S.A. (HO) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €171.13 versus a price of €233.60, about −27% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HO?
Our model-based fair value for Thales S.A. is €171.13 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €233.60.
What is the quality score of HO?
Thales S.A. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Thales S.A. (HO)?
Thales S.A. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €22.1B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of HO?
The net profit margin of Thales S.A. is about 7.6%, meaning it keeps roughly 7.6% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Thales S.A. pay a dividend?
Thales S.A. currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.63% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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