Thales S.A. (HO) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · FR · Market cap €45.2B · ISIN FR0000121329
What is Thales S.A. really worth?
A solid business, but trading 37% above our fair value of €171.13.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −10.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€213.91). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €64.44 – €271.90 · fair‑value band €128.35 – €213.91 · the €233.60 price screens above the €171.13 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Thales S.A. (HO) currently trades at €233.60, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €171.13, implying the stock looks roughly 36.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of €182.51 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the €233.60 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €25.98, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Thales S.A. generated revenue of €22.1B at a net margin of 7.6%. Revenue grew 7.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 21.1%. Net debt stands at €1.7B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €128.35 (bear case) to €213.91 (bull case); at €233.60, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 15% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −27%, HO screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €2.94 per share, which is 1.7 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (€182.51) versus Asset-Based (€25.98). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 54
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide.
Full company description
Thales S.A. provides various solutions in the defence and security, aerospace and space, and digital identity and security markets worldwide. The company offers advance air defence systems, combat systems, defence onboard electronics c4isr solutions, command and control solutions, mission and surveillance systems, airborne optronics, and airspace protection solutions; collaborative combat, intelligence, connectivity and cloud, country and force protection, military vehicle, collaborative artillery, and augmented soldier solutions; robotics and drones; above-water combat, unmanned maritime, and underwater warfare systems; naval support and services; and joint systems. It also provides mission-critical and radio communications; cyber defence and electronic warfare solutions; protection systems; unmanned aerial vehicle systems; digital transformation services; and Geonav IoT for real-time indoor/outdoor precise navigations. In addition, it offers digital identity and security solutions comprising banking and payment, data protection, digital identity, identity and access management, biometric, mobile, software monetization, secure IoT solutions, and IoT connecting and security solutions. Further, it provides air traffic management solutions; flight decks and avionics equipment and functions; in-flight entertainment, connectivity, and services; drone and navigation solutions; support and services for civil aviation; connectivity solutions; antennas; and solutions for internal and external aircraft lighting. It offers lasers; microwave and imaging sub-systems; microelectronic solutions; mobile satellite, environmental testing and evaluation laboratory, and training and simulation services; cryogenic technology and coolers; silicon security solutions; and designs, operates, and delivers satellite-based technologies. The company was formerly known as Thomson-CSF and changed its name to Thales S.A. in 2000. Thales S.A. was founded in 1893 and is based in Meudon, France.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Thales S.A. reported revenue of €22.1B in FY2025 versus €16.2B in FY2021, a compound +8.1%/yr. Reported net income was €1.7B in FY2025, compounding +11.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +4.3 % · buybacks/dilution +0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HO screens 37% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Thales Builds Cryptographic Security for the Age of AI and Post-Quantum Computing
- Thales Launches Imperva for AWS to Help Organizations Protect Applications and APIs
- Is Thales (ENXTPA:HO) Expensive After Its Singapore Air Traffic Management Contract?
- Singapore Selects Thales for Next-generation AI-powered Air Traffic Management System Serving One of Asia’s Busiest Airspaces
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,155 | €314.04 | −73% |
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