Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $112B · ISIN US4432011082
What is Howmet Aerospace Inc really worth?
Howmet Aerospace Inc
HWM · US
Structural break: The valuation model sees a lasting decline in earnings power for this stock, the confidence band is broken. Treat the target with caution.
A strong business, but trading 402% above our fair value of $50.43.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −11.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 77/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($77.85). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The large gap to fair value rests on thin data (low evidence): fewer applicable models and a shorter history. Read it with extra caution.
- A fairly wide model range ($34.06 to $77.85) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.05 – $292.65 · fair‑value band $34.06 – $77.85 · the $252.96 price screens above the $50.43 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) currently trades at $252.96, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $50.43, implying the stock looks roughly 401.5% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 77/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $60.21 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $252.96 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $8.96, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is low.
Over the trailing twelve months, Howmet Aerospace Inc generated revenue of $8.6B at a net margin of 20.2%. Revenue grew 19.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 33.8%. Net debt stands at $2.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $34.06 (bear case) to $77.85 (bull case); at $252.96, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 10% below its 52-week high and 53% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −80%, HWM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.64 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($60.21) versus Dividend Discount ($4.88). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 72 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 63
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels.
Full company description
Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts. The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners; and latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and installation tools. The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products, aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies for aerospace and defense applications; and titanium forgings, extrusions, and forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components. The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported revenue of $8.3B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +55.5%/yr from FY2021.
HWM screens 402% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Howmet's Transportation Market Under Pressure: Is the Risk Priced In?
- Howmet Aerospace (HWM) Is Facing New Competition In Gas Turbine Blade Casting
- Is It Worth Investing in Howmet (HWM) Based on Wall Street's Bullish Views?
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,155 | €314.04 | −73% |
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