Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Howmet Aerospace Inc stock $52.50, price $193, upside -72.8%, quality 76 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $27.04 – $292.65 · fair‑value band $35.97 – $69.59 · the $193.29 price screens above the $52.50 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Howmet Aerospace Inc. provides advanced engineered solutions for the aerospace and transportation industries in the United States, Japan, France, Germany, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Italy, Canada, Poland, China, and internationally.
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It operates through four segments: Engine Products, Fastening Systems, Engineered Structures, and Forged Wheels. The Engine Products segment offers airfoils and seamless rolled rings primarily for aircraft engines and industrial gas turbines; and rotating and structural parts.
The Fastening Systems segment produces aerospace fastening systems, as well as commercial transportation, industrial, and other fasteners; and latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and installation tools.
The Engineered Structures segment provides titanium ingots and mill products, aluminum and nickel forgings, and machined components and assemblies for aerospace and defense applications; and titanium forgings, extrusions, and forming and machining services for airframe, wing, aero-engine, and landing gear components.
The Forged Wheels segment offers forged aluminum wheels and related products for heavy-duty trucks and commercial transportation markets. The company was formerly known as Arconic Inc. Howmet Aerospace Inc. was founded in 1888 and is based in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Stock analysis
Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) currently trades at $193.29, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $52.50, 72.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $60.08 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $193.29 price.
Bear case: the Economic Profit group reads lowest at $23.75, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: $35.97 (bear) to $69.59 (bull), the price of $193.29 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported revenue of $8.3B in FY2025 versus $5.0B in FY2021, a compound +13.5%/yr. Reported net income was $1.5B in FY2025, compounding +55.5%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $84.4B Large · P/E ratio 43.3 · P/S ratio 9.26 · EPS (TTM) $4.46 · Dividend yield 0.2% · Net margin 20.5% · Return on equity 34.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.1%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 89 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 34% below its 52-week high and 1% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −73%, HWM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
The price assumes far more growth than our models allow for, so the models scatter widely ($1.47 to $85.01). Read the Fair Value as a cautious anchor, not a price target; the Growth Forecast section shows what the price assumes.
Bear$35.97Fair Value $52.50Bull$69.59
Price $193.29 · Upside -72.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then ($3.23 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.89/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.1%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+13.4%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+9.4%
Start year 2020 (pandemic)
Revenue growth 9 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
−4.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip.
+55.8%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+55.6%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.2%
Per share before 2016divided by the spin-off factor 1.334
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.44.3% vs 23.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.16% → 26%
2025 sits 102% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
⚠ Revenue per share shrinking 1.7%/yr over ~10Y (margins intact) ⓘStructural-decline marker: revenue PER SHARE has fallen over the last decade (robust median trend, not a single year). Backtested across 2005 to 2017, such businesses trailed the market by about 2.5 percentage points per year. Display only: it does not change the fair value or the quality score.
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+29.1%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.9%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +26.1% a year for the price and +11.3% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (100 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Neutral
Recent news coverage is roughly neutral, about typical for how stocks are covered.
AI conclusion: Strong revenue growth from commercial aerospace, defense and gas turbines, supported by productivity that has lifted margins, forms the core strength, while cost pressures and limited ownership signals represent the main weakness.
Main risk: Cost pressures threaten to erode the margin improvements achieved through productivity in aerospace, defense and gas turbine operations.
Howmet draws strong revenue growth from demand in commercial aerospace, defense and gas turbines, backed by productivity that has lifted margins. Cost pressures now raise the question whether those gains can continue. Will the business gain more from its backlog and integration synergies than it gives up to higher expenses?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−72.8% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)34.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets13.5% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)20.5% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)28.5% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)24.1% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)0.2% · Bottom 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.53× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)43.3× · Pricier than median
P/B15.77× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)9.26× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow59.0× · Priciest 25%
EV/EBITDA31.0× · Priciest 25%
PEG0.80× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)73· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)5· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $52.50 versus a price of $193.29, about −73% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of HWM?
Our model-based fair value for Howmet Aerospace Inc is $52.50 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $193.29.
What is the quality score of HWM?
Howmet Aerospace Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $52.50 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 24 valuation models. Cautious scenario $35.97, optimistic scenario $69.59. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Howmet Aerospace Inc stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $52.50, about −73% upside versus a price of $193.29 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $35.97, optimistic scenario $69.59. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Howmet Aerospace Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $9.1B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Howmet Aerospace Inc pay a dividend?
Howmet Aerospace Inc currently shows a dividend yield of 0.25% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Howmet Aerospace Inc would have to grow free cash flow by +29.1 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.7 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +9.4 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of HWM use?
Our models discount Howmet Aerospace Inc at 9.7 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 1.20, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Howmet Aerospace Inc that is +29.1 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.7 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Howmet Aerospace Inc grew +9.4 % a year. The price currently implies +29.1 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Howmet Aerospace Inc (+29.1 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 1.84 %: that much free cash flow Howmet Aerospace Inc produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.7 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Howmet Aerospace Inc it is $52.50 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $193.29. It is the blended result of 24 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, HWM trades above its calculated fair value: price $193.29, fair value $52.50, a gap of about −73% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of HWM?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($193.29); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($52.50). For Howmet Aerospace Inc the two are $140.79 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Howmet Aerospace Inc worth?
The market values Howmet Aerospace Inc at about $84.4B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $193.29; our models calculate a fair value of $52.50 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about HWM?
Our models span a range for Howmet Aerospace Inc: cautious scenario $35.97, base $52.50, optimistic $69.59 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $193.29). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of HWM?
Howmet Aerospace Inc trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 43.3 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $52.50 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 8 fiscal years (2018 to 2025), reported earnings, FY2025 ex one-offs: 37.1. Other multiples: PEG 0.8, P/B 15.8, P/S 9.3, EV/EBITDA 31.0.
What is the PEG ratio of HWM?
The PEG ratio of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 0.80 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Howmet Aerospace Inc (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 34.7%, debt of 0.53 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 76/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is HWM from its 52-week high?
Howmet Aerospace Inc trades at $193.29, about 34% below its 52-week high of $292.65 and 1% above the low of $190.69 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $52.50 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Howmet Aerospace Inc?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Howmet Aerospace Inc stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $193.29, calculated fair value $52.50 (−73%), Quality Score 76/100, from 24 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of HWM calculated?
We run Howmet Aerospace Inc through 24 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $52.50, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Howmet Aerospace Inc itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $193.29. Our model-based fair value is $52.50, about −73% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Howmet Aerospace Inc right now?
A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety. The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($69.59). The favourable scenario is already priced in. A fairly wide model range ($35.97 to $69.59) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Key figures of Howmet Aerospace Inc
How large is the market capitalisation of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The market capitalisation of Howmet Aerospace Inc is $84.4B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 9.26 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Earnings per share at Howmet Aerospace Inc are $4.46 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 43.3). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The dividend yield of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 0.2% (payout 10.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The net margin of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 20.5% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 34.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 13.1% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
The operating margin of Howmet Aerospace Inc is 28.5% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Revenue at Howmet Aerospace Inc is growing +24.1% versus a year earlier (3y avg +13.4%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM)?
Earnings per share at Howmet Aerospace Inc are growing +33.0% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM) carry?
The net debt of Howmet Aerospace Inc is $2.3B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 1.6 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026