Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $68.9B · ISIN US8936411003
What is Transdigm Group Incorporated really worth?
Transdigm Group Incorporated
TDG · US
A solid business, but trading 103% above our fair value of $571.03.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 22 valuation models · updated 22 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $606.95 to $571.03 (−5.9%) since Jul 18, 2026. Share price −9.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 71/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($989.74). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- A fairly wide model range ($462.72 to $989.74) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $424.83 – $1,509 · fair‑value band $462.72 – $989.74 · the $1,158 price screens above the $571.03 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) currently trades at $1,158, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $571.03, implying the stock looks roughly 102.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 71/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2,771 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $1,158 price. Bear case: the DCF Models group reads lowest at $478.85, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Transdigm Group Incorporated generated revenue of $9.5B at a net margin of 21.9%. Revenue grew 18.3% year over year. Net debt stands at $27.2B. The stock trades on a trailing P/E of 36.2. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $462.72 (bear case) to $989.74 (bull case); at $1,158, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 3% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −44% fair-value upside, at −51%, TDG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 11 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $29.77 per share, which is 5.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 22 models by family
Widest divergence: Dividend Discount ($2,771) versus Growth DCF ($3.33). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (77).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 62 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 40
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.
Full company description
TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally. The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components. Its Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions, as well as engineered audio, radio, and antenna systems. The Non-Aviation segment offers seat belts and safety restraints; mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls; hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves; refueling systems; and turbine controls. It serves engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots; airframe manufacturers, cabin system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, and third party maintenance suppliers; and off-road vehicle and subsystem suppliers, child restraint system suppliers, and satellite and space system suppliers, as well as manufacturers of heavy equipment. The company was formerly known as TD Holding Corporation and changed its name to TransDigm Group Incorporated in 2006. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Transdigm Group Incorporated reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.3 % · buybacks/dilution −0.2 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
TDG screens 103% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Can Strategic Acquisitions Strengthen TransDigm's Growth?
- TransDigm (TDG) Down 8.1% Since Last Earnings Report: Can It Rebound?
- Aerospace Stocks Q2 In Review: TransDigm (NYSE:TDG) Vs Peers
- What Makes TransDigm (TDG) a New Buy Stock
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
Insider activity: 66/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| Northrop Grumman Corporation NOC | $545.57 | $356.59 | −35% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,155 | €314.04 | −73% |
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