Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Transdigm Group Incorporated stock $1,242, price $1,142, upside +8.8%, quality 69 out of 100. Rating: fairly valued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $424.83 – $1,509 · fair‑value band $479.11 – $1,769 · the $1,142 price screens below the $1,242 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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TransDigm Group Incorporated designs, produces, and supplies aircraft components in the United States and internationally.
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The Power & Control segment offers mechanical/electro-mechanical actuators and controls, ignition systems and engine technology, specialized pumps and valves, power conditioning devices, specialized AC/DC electric motors and generators, batteries and chargers, databus and power controls, sensor products, switches and relay panels, hoists, winches and lifting devices, cargo loading and handling systems, delivery systems, and electronic components.
Its Airframe segment provides engineered latching and locking devices, engineered rods, engineered connectors and elastomer sealing solutions, cockpit security components and systems, cockpit displays, lavatory components, seat belts and safety restraints, engineered and customized interior surfaces and related components, thermal protection and insulation products, lighting and control technology, parachutes, specialized flight, wind tunnel and jet engine testing services and equipment, and testing and instrumentation solutions, as well as engineered audio, radio, and antenna systems.
The Non-Aviation segment offers seat belts and safety restraints; mechanical/electromechanical actuators and controls; hydraulic/electromechanical actuators and fuel valves; refueling systems; and turbine controls.
It serves engine and power system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, third party maintenance suppliers, military buying agencies, and repair depots; airframe manufacturers, cabin system and subsystem suppliers, airlines, and third party maintenance suppliers; and off-road vehicle and subsystem suppliers, child restraint system suppliers, and satellite and space system suppliers, as well as manufacturers of heavy equipment.
The company was formerly known as TD Holding Corporation and changed its name to TransDigm Group Incorporated in 2006. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Cleveland, Ohio.
Stock analysis
Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) currently trades at $1,142, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $1,242, so the stock looks roughly fairly valued today (gap 8.1%).
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Valuation
Bull case: the Dividend Discount group reads highest at a median of $2,776 per share, and 3 of the 22 models we run sit above the $1,142 price.
Bear case: the Growth DCF group reads lowest at $135.93, and 19 of the 22 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $479.11 (bear) to $1,769 (bull), the price of $1,142 sits inside it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 69/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Transdigm Group Incorporated reported revenue of $8.8B in FY2025 versus $4.8B in FY2021, a compound +16.5%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2025, compounding +32.2%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap $66.1B Large · P/E ratio 34.6 · P/S ratio 6.61 · EPS (TTM) $32.97 · Net margin 21.3% · Return on assets (EBIT) 13.5% · Operating margin 46.0% · Revenue (TTM) $10.0B.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 83 out of 100 (medium confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 21% below its 52-week high and 6% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −26% fair-value upside, at 9%, TDG screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$479.11Fair Value $1,242Bull$1,769
Price $1,142 · Upside +8.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 12 months old). Earnings retained since then ($32.97 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.90/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+11.2%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.6%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.6%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.6% a year
Revenue growth 25 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+17.7%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Basis: adjusted.
+27.7%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+27.7%
Dividend (yield on the price)0.0%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.9% vs 16.3%, picking up
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.34% → 47%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
A lot of optimism in the price
The price assumes more growth than the company has delivered so far and more than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+25.5%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+13.4%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (USA: IMF forecast 2.4% a year to 2030, 3.1% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +22.6% a year for the price and +10.7% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (99 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Positive
Recent news coverage is more positive than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws a moderate moat from high margins and steady aftermarket cash flow in niche aerospace parts, yet high leverage and negative equity remain key offsets.
Main risk: Potential cuts in airline maintenance spending could reduce demand for aftermarket components and pressure recurring revenue.
TransDigm builds its position through proprietary aerospace components that generate steady aftermarket revenue. Recent sector concerns over higher fuel costs and potential cuts in airline maintenance spending have weighed on the stock, even as operating performance shows no clear signs of weakening. Does the mix of high-margin recurring business provide lasting protection, or could the aftermarket slowdown prove more lasting than expected?
Compare Transdigm Group Incorporated with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 8/12 measures
Overall it ranks above its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score69 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside+8.8% · Top 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)Negative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Return on assets9.1% · Top 25%
Net margin (12 months)21.3% · Top 25%
Operating margin (12 months)46.0% · Top 25%
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)22.5% · Above median
Dividend yield (12 months)15.2% · Top 25%
Balance sheet
Debt / equityNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)34.6× · Pricier than median
P/BNegative equity ⓘThe company's equity is below zero, for example after large share buybacks. A ratio to negative equity has no meaning, so we show no number here and do not rank it against the peer group.
P/S (12 months)6.61× · Priciest 25%
Price / free cash flow36.4× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA18.2× · Cheaper than median
PEG3.05× · Priciest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)45· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)0· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)0· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)100· sector 18
PAST 0: with negative equity (buybacks among others) return on equity is not meaningfully computable.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Transdigm Group Incorporated Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TDG
Frequently asked questions
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $1,242 versus a price of $1,142, about +9% upside (fairly valued).
What is the fair value of TDG?
Our model-based fair value for Transdigm Group Incorporated is $1,242 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $1,142.
What is the quality score of TDG?
Transdigm Group Incorporated has a Quality Score of 69/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $1,242 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 22 valuation models. Cautious scenario $479.11, optimistic scenario $1,769. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Transdigm Group Incorporated stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $1,242, about +9% upside versus a price of $1,142 (fairly valued). Cautious scenario $479.11, optimistic scenario $1,769. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Transdigm Group Incorporated reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $10.0B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Transdigm Group Incorporated would have to grow free cash flow by +25.5 % per year for five years (discount rate 9.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.6 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of TDG use?
Our models discount Transdigm Group Incorporated at 9.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.94, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Transdigm Group Incorporated that is +25.5 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (9.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Transdigm Group Incorporated grew +11.6 % a year. The price currently implies +25.5 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Transdigm Group Incorporated (+25.5 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.75 %: that much free cash flow Transdigm Group Incorporated produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (9.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Transdigm Group Incorporated it is $1,242 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of $1,142. It is the blended result of 22 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, TDG trades below its calculated fair value: price $1,142, fair value $1,242, a gap of about +9% (fairly valued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of TDG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($1,142); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($1,242). For Transdigm Group Incorporated the two are $100.58 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Transdigm Group Incorporated worth?
The market values Transdigm Group Incorporated at about $66.1B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is $1,142; our models calculate a fair value of $1,242 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about TDG?
Our models span a range for Transdigm Group Incorporated: cautious scenario $479.11, base $1,242, optimistic $1,769 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price $1,142). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of TDG?
Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 34.6 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $1,242 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 3.0, P/S 6.6, EV/EBITDA 18.2.
What is the PEG ratio of TDG?
The PEG ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 3.05 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Transdigm Group Incorporated (as of Oct 22, 2026): negative equity, so no return on equity and no debt-to-equity ratio. They feed the Quality Score of 69/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is TDG from its 52-week high?
Transdigm Group Incorporated trades at $1,142, about 21% below its 52-week high of $1,450 and 6% above the low of $1,076 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $1,242 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Transdigm Group Incorporated?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Transdigm Group Incorporated stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price $1,142, calculated fair value $1,242 (+9%), Quality Score 69/100, from 22 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of TDG calculated?
We run Transdigm Group Incorporated through 22 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $1,242, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Transdigm Group Incorporated currently trades 8 % below its own fair value, and the market average says nothing about that. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was $1,142. Our model-based fair value is $1,242, about +9% upside (fairly valued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Transdigm Group Incorporated right now?
The model range is unusually wide ($479.11 to $1,769). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution. The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
Where does the earnings growth of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) come from?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated grew +17.1 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +12.0 %, EBIT margin +1.3 %, tax rate +1.1 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +2.1 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Transdigm Group Incorporated
How large is the market capitalisation of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The market capitalisation of Transdigm Group Incorporated is $66.1B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 6.61 (last twelve months). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated are $32.97 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 34.6). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the net margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The net margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 21.3% (last twelve months). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 13.5% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
The operating margin of Transdigm Group Incorporated is 46.0% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Revenue at Transdigm Group Incorporated is growing +22.5% versus a year earlier (3y avg +17.6%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG)?
Earnings per share at Transdigm Group Incorporated are growing +10.9% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Transdigm Group Incorporated (TDG) carry?
The net debt of Transdigm Group Incorporated is $27.2B (fiscal year 2025, ≈ 15.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Some data
Oct 22, 2026