Rheinmetall AG (RHM) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 22, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Rheinmetall AG stock €313, price €1,015, upside -69.1%, quality 56 out of 100. Rating: strongly overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €72.46 – €1,969 · fair‑value band €234.89 – €391.49 · the €1,015 price screens above the €313.19 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 22, 2026.
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Rheinmetall AG provides mobility and security technologies in Germany, Rest of Europe, North, Middle, and South America, Asia and the Near East, and internationally. The company operates through the Vehicle Systems, Weapon and Ammunition, and Electronic Solutions segments.
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Its Vehicle Systems segment offers combat, logistics, support, and special vehicles, including armored tracked vehicles, CBRN protection systems, artillery, turret systems, and wheeled logistics and tactical vehicles.
The Weapon and Ammunition segment provides firepower and protection solutions, such as weapons and ammunition, protection systems, propellants, and international projects and services.
Its Electronic Solutions segment offers a chain of systems network, such as sensors, networking platforms, automated connected effectors for soldiers, cyberspace protection solutions, and training and simulation solutions.
The company's products include air defense, soldier, and fire control systems; radar technology; and command, control and reconnaissance systems, as well as simulations for the army, air force, navy, and civil applications. It also engages in the aftermarket activities.
The company was formerly known as Rheinmetall Berlin AG and changed its name to Rheinmetall AG in 1996. Rheinmetall AG was founded in 1889 and is headquartered in Düsseldorf, Germany.
Stock analysis
Rheinmetall AG (RHM) currently trades at €1,015, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €313.19, 69.1% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Growth DCF group reads highest at a median of €484.49 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the €1,015 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €34.64, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is high.
Scenario range: €234.89 (bear) to €391.49 (bull), the price of €1,015 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 56/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector.
Healthy Growth: Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Rheinmetall AG reported revenue of €9.9B in FY2025 versus €5.7B in FY2021, a compound +15.1%/yr. Reported net income was €696M in FY2025, compounding +24.4%/yr from FY2021.
Key figures
Market cap €47.3B Large · P/E ratio 39.4 · P/S ratio 2.76 · EPS (TTM) €25.75 · Dividend yield 1.1% · Net margin 7.0% · Return on equity 25.7% · Return on assets (EBIT) 8.9%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 60 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 47% below its 52-week high and 10% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −20% fair-value upside, at −69%, RHM screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear€234.89Fair Value €313.19Bull€391.49
Price €1,015 · Upside -69.1%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2025 figures (about 10 months old). Earnings retained since then (€11.56 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.88/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Revenue growth 1 year
+1.9%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+15.7%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+11.1%
Start year 2020 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +6.7% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+3.4%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate.
+18.4%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+17.3%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.1%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.17.3% vs 14.4%, steady
Profit margin 2020 to 2025 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.5% → 17%
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2020 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
The price assumes about as much growth as the company has delivered so far and less than analysts expect.
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
+13.3%
Yearly growth needed for the next five years to justify today's price.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
+29.5%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (euro area: IMF forecast 2.2% a year to 2030, 2.6% from 2016 to 2025) that is about +10.9% a year for the price and +26.8% for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (98 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: Rapid delivery of counter-drone prototypes and satellite tasking via joint venture demonstrate sector positioning and innovation strength yet thin signals leave lasting advantages unconfirmed.
Main risk: Uncertainty whether fresh orders will materialise beyond 2030 would hit future revenue growth and demand visibility.
Rheinmetall just delivered a counter-drone prototype in Australia after only twelve months of work and secured independent satellite tasking for the German armed forces through its ICEYE joint venture. It also doubled its credit facility to 1.5 billion euros for general purposes while analysts question whether fresh orders will materialise beyond 2030. Our models see the shares as overvalued. Will the shift into these newer areas generate enough growth to offset any slowdown in core programmes?
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Aerospace & Defense · 235 stocks
Beats the industry median on 7/15 measures
A mixed picture versus its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score56 · Above median
Fair Value upside−69.1% · Bottom 25%
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)25.7% · Top 25%
Return on assets4.1% · Above median
Net margin (12 months)6.3% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)14.4% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)68.8% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.1% · Above median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity0.18× · Above median
Valuation Multiplesvs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)39.4× · Pricier than median
P/B9.44× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.15× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow33.5× · Pricier than median
EV/EBITDA20.2× · Pricier than median
PEG0.35× · Cheapest 25%
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 0
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 59
PAST (return on equity)100· sector 38
HEALTH (low debt)91· sector 94
DIVIDEND (yield)23· sector 18
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Rheinmetall AG Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/RHM
Frequently asked questions
Is Rheinmetall AG (RHM) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 22, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of €313.19 versus a price of €1,015, about −69% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of RHM?
Our model-based fair value for Rheinmetall AG is €313.19 (as of Oct 22, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: €1,015.
What is the quality score of RHM?
Rheinmetall AG has a Quality Score of 56/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of €313.19 (as of Oct 22, 2026) from 26 valuation models. Cautious scenario €234.89, optimistic scenario €391.49. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Rheinmetall AG stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at €313.19, about −69% upside versus a price of €1,015 (overvalued). Cautious scenario €234.89, optimistic scenario €391.49. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Rheinmetall AG reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about €11.4B (latest available figure, as of Oct 22, 2026).
Does Rheinmetall AG pay a dividend?
Rheinmetall AG currently shows a dividend yield of 1.13% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 22, 2026).
What growth is priced into Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Rheinmetall AG would have to grow free cash flow by +13.3 % per year for five years (discount rate 7.9 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +11.1 % per year. As of Oct 22, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of RHM use?
Our models discount Rheinmetall AG at 7.9 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.48, country premium for Germany. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Rheinmetall AG that is +13.3 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (7.9 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Rheinmetall AG (RHM) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Rheinmetall AG grew +11.1 % a year. The price currently implies +13.3 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Rheinmetall AG (RHM) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +7.5 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Rheinmetall AG (+13.3 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.99 %: that much free cash flow Rheinmetall AG produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (7.9 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Rheinmetall AG it is €313.19 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026), against a price of €1,015. It is the blended result of 26 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Rheinmetall AG stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 22, 2026, RHM trades above its calculated fair value: price €1,015, fair value €313.19, a gap of about −69% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of RHM?
No. The price is what the market pays today (€1,015); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify (€313.19). For Rheinmetall AG the two are €701.81 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Rheinmetall AG worth?
The market values Rheinmetall AG at about €47.3B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 22, 2026). Per share that is €1,015; our models calculate a fair value of €313.19 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about RHM?
Our models span a range for Rheinmetall AG: cautious scenario €234.89, base €313.19, optimistic €391.49 per share (as of Oct 22, 2026, price €1,015). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of RHM?
Rheinmetall AG trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 39.4 (as of Oct 22, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of €313.19 is built from several models across several years. Median P/E at fiscal year-end, 10 fiscal years (2016 to 2025), reported earnings: 17.6. Other multiples: PEG 0.3, P/B 9.4, P/S 4.1, EV/EBITDA 20.2.
What is the PEG ratio of RHM?
The PEG ratio of Rheinmetall AG is 0.35 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 22, 2026). That is below 1, so growth is priced more cheaply than the earnings multiple alone suggests.
How solid is the balance sheet of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Balance-sheet figures for Rheinmetall AG (as of Oct 22, 2026): return on equity 25.7%, debt of 0.18 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 56/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is RHM from its 52-week high?
Rheinmetall AG trades at €1,015, about 47% below its 52-week high of €1,901 and 10% above the low of €926.20 (as of Oct 22, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of €313.19 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Rheinmetall AG?
From the same area (Industrials) we also value General Electric Company, RTX Corporation, Lockheed Martin Corporation, General Dynamics Corporation, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Rheinmetall AG stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 22, 2026: price €1,015, calculated fair value €313.19 (−69%), Quality Score 56/100, from 26 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of RHM calculated?
We run Rheinmetall AG through 26 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of €313.19, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.2 % above its aggregate fair value. Rheinmetall AG itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The closing price on Oct 22, 2026 was €1,015. Our model-based fair value is €313.19, about −69% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Rheinmetall AG right now?
The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (€391.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in. Solid but not exceptional quality (56/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Where does the earnings growth of Rheinmetall AG (RHM) come from?
Earnings per share at Rheinmetall AG grew +18.6 % a year from 2014 to 2025. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +4.5 %, EBIT margin +14.1 %, tax rate −0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) −0.2 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Rheinmetall AG
How large is the market capitalisation of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The market capitalisation of Rheinmetall AG is €47.3B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Rheinmetall AG is 2.76 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Earnings per share at Rheinmetall AG are €25.75 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 39.4). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The dividend yield of Rheinmetall AG is 1.1% (payout 44.7%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The net margin of Rheinmetall AG is 7.0% (fiscal year 2025). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Rheinmetall AG is 25.7% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Rheinmetall AG is 8.9% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
The operating margin of Rheinmetall AG is 14.4% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Revenue at Rheinmetall AG is growing +68.8% versus a year earlier (3y avg +15.7%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Rheinmetall AG (RHM)?
Earnings per share at Rheinmetall AG are growing −5.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net cash does Rheinmetall AG (RHM) hold?
Rheinmetall AG holds more cash than debt, €368M net (fiscal year 2025). The company holds more cash than debt, a safety cushion.
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Broad data
Oct 22, 2026