Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) Fair Value & Analysis
Industrials · US · Market cap $74.1B · ISIN US6668071029
What is Northrop Grumman Corporation really worth?
Northrop Grumman Corporation
NOC · US
A solid business, but trading 48% above our fair value of $356.59.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 31, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated 5 days ago
Share price −4.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The model range is unusually wide ($207.65 to $550.10). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (65/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $319.68 – $764.65 · fair‑value band $207.65 – $550.10 · the $528.24 price screens above the $356.59 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 31, 2026.
Analysis
Northrop Grumman Corporation (NOC) currently trades at $528.24, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $356.59, implying the stock looks roughly 48.1% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 65/100 (solid quality), in the Industrials sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $512.05 per share, and 1 of the 25 models we run sit above the $528.24 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $78.65, and 24 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Northrop Grumman Corporation generated revenue of $42.4B at a net margin of 10.8%. Revenue grew 4.4% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 28.5%. Net debt stands at $15.3B. Fundamentals as of Aug 31, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $207.65 (bear case) to $550.10 (bull case); at $528.24, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 31% below its 52-week high and 14% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Industrials peers we cover trades at −45% fair-value upside, at −32%, NOC screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $15.38 per share, which is 4.3 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($512.05) versus Asset-Based ($78.65). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 31, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 42
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems.
Full company description
Northrop Grumman Corporation operates as an aerospace and defense technology company in the United States, Asia/Pacific, Europe, and internationally. It operates through four segments: Aeronautics Systems, Defense Systems, Mission Systems and Space Systems. The Aeronautics Systems segment designs, develops, produces, integrates, sustains, and modernizes aircraft systems. This segment also offers unmanned autonomous aircraft systems, including high-altitude long-endurance strategic, surveillance and reconnaissance systems; and strategic long-range strike aircraft, tactical fighter and air dominance aircraft, and airborne battle management and command and control systems. Its Defense Systems segment designs, develops, integrates, and produces strategic deterrent systems, tactical weapons, and missile defense solutions; and provides sustainment, modernization, and training services for manned and unmanned aircraft and electronics systems. This segment also offers strategic missiles; integrated all-domain command and control systems; precision strike weapons; tactical solid rocket motors, and high-speed air-breathing and hypersonic systems; high-performance gun systems, ammunition, precision munitions, and advanced fuzes; and sustainment, operation, and modernization. The Mission Systems segment provides command, control, communication and computer, intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance systems; radar, electro-optical/infrared, and acoustic sensors; electronic warfare systems; advanced communications and network systems; microelectronics; navigation and positioning sensors; maritime power, propulsion, and payload launch systems; cyber solutions; and intelligence processing systems. Its Space Systems segment offers satellites, spacecraft systems, subsystems, sensors, and payloads; ground systems; missile defense systems and interceptors; and launch vehicles and related propulsion systems. The company was founded in 1939 and is based in Falls Church, Virginia.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Northrop Grumman Corporation reported revenue of $42.0B in FY2025 versus $35.7B in FY2021, a compound +4.1%/yr. Reported net income was $4.2B in FY2025, compounding −12.1%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +6.1 % · buybacks/dilution +3.1 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
NOC screens 48% overvalued. Compare with General Electric Company →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Northrop Grumman wins $863M IQIQ Army deal for M1156 precision guidance kits
- Better Drone Stock: Kratos Defense vs. Northrop Grumman
Peer Group
Aerospace & Defense · 229 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Aerospace & Defense median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Aerospace & Defense stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 31, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| General Electric Company GE | $335.71 | $116.71 | −65% |
| RTX Corporation RTX | $212.08 | $88.37 | −58% |
| Airbus SE AIR | €213.00 | €117.01 | −45% |
| Lockheed Martin Corporation LMT | $565.89 | $419.01 | −26% |
| Howmet Aerospace Inc HWM | $264.85 | $50.43 | −81% |
| General Dynamics Corporation GD | $379.32 | $274.32 | −28% |
| TransDigm Group TDG | $1,235 | $571.03 | −54% |
| L3Harris Technologies, Inc LHX | $262.82 | $146.55 | −44% |
| Thales S.A HO | €243.70 | €171.13 | −30% |
| Rheinmetall AG RHM | €1,155 | €314.04 | −73% |
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