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The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $171B · ISIN US8725401090

What is The TJX Companies Inc really worth?

TT The TJX Companies Inc logo The TJX Companies Inc TJX · US
Price$132.19
Fair Value$84.95
Upside−35.7%
Quality70/100

A solid business, but trading 56% above our fair value of $84.95.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +13.4 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 71/100

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.4% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Weak on dividend: 27 out of 100

For context

·1.33% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $62.07 – $107.83

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 24 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −16.1% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 70/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($107.83). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$168.41 $51.97 Fair Value $84.95 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $51.97 – $168.41 · fair‑value band $62.07 – $107.83 · the $132.19 price screens above the $84.95 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) currently trades at $132.19, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $84.95, implying the stock looks roughly 55.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 70/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $89.54 per share, and 0 of the 24 models we run sit above the $132.19 price. Bear case: the Earnings-Based group reads lowest at $40.68, and 24 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, The TJX Companies Inc generated revenue of $61.6B at a net margin of 9.4%. Revenue grew 9.2% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 61.3%. Net debt stands at $7.3B. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $62.07 (bear case) to $107.83 (bull case); at $132.19, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 20% below its 52-week high and 12% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −36%, TJX screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $2.00 per share, which is 2.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $56.46 $89.54 $142.10 79
Growth DCF $56.98 $89.49 $141.02 77
Owner Earnings $55.04 $87.22 $138.36 75
All 24 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $56.46 $89.54 $142.10 79
Owner Earnings $55.04 $87.22 $138.36 75
5Y Revenue Exit $51.00 $80.58 $118.89 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $62.55 $102.85 $150.89 74
5Y P/E Exit $70.52 $118.21 $169.74 70
10Y Revenue Exit $51.00 $78.88 $117.64 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $59.90 $94.59 $142.76 68
10Y P/E Exit $65.04 $105.43 $157.55 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $33.82 $120.89 $162.85 64
Lynch FV $28.48 $40.68 $52.89 61
PEG = 1.0 $28.48 $40.68 $52.89 57
EPV $50.27 $57.99 $64.74 74
Multiples
P/E Multiple $82.06 $109.41 $136.77 63
P/S Multiple $49.18 $65.58 $81.97 58
P/B Multiple $27.67 $36.90 $46.12 55
EV/EBIT $91.67 $120.90 $150.14 66
EV/EBITDA $72.59 $95.46 $118.34 67
EV/Revenue $49.85 $69.53 $89.20 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $4.61 $6.18 $9.22 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $56.98 $89.49 $141.02 77
Rev-Margin DCF $51.00 $80.45 $115.64 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $45.23 $75.24 $1,560 64
ROIC Compounder $52.05 $62.21 $72.63 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $56.15 $80.22 $104.28 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($89.54) versus Asset-Based ($6.18). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 25.7
P/S ratio 2.34 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $5.14 price ÷ EPS = P/E 25.7
Dividend yield 1.3% payout 34.1%
Net margin 9.1% FY2026
Return on equity 61.3% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 18.7% avg 5y
Operating margin 11.8% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $61.6B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +9.2% 3y avg +6.5%
EPS growth (YoY) +29.3%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $4.9B FY2026
Net debt $7.3B FY2026 · ≈ 1.5 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 70/100

Of which business quality 68 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 47

Profitability 85
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 41
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 50
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 76
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 56
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 89
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 31
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 26
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 97
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International.

Full company description

The TJX Companies, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates as an off-price apparel and home fashions retailer worldwide. It operates through four segments: Marmaxx, HomeGoods, TJX Canada, and TJX International. The company provides family apparel comprising footwear; accessories, such as beauty and jewelry; home fashion products, including home basics, decorative accessories and giftware, as well as furniture, rugs, lighting, soft home, decorative accessories, tabletop, and cookware; pet and gourmet food; and other merchandise. It also offers home decor, furniture, and seasonal home merchandise. The company sells its products through stores and e-commerce sites. The TJX Companies, Inc. was incorporated in 1962 and is headquartered in Framingham, Massachusetts.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

The TJX Companies Inc reported revenue of $60.4B in FY2026 versus $48.6B in FY2022, a compound +5.6%/yr. Reported net income was $5.5B in FY2026, compounding +13.7%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 94/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$60.4B
Latest YoY
+7.1%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.5%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+13.4%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (39Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+14.2% (12.9 + 1.3)
Revenue +5.6%/yr
FY22 $48.6B
FY23 $49.9B
FY24 $54.2B
FY25 $56.4B
FY26 $60.4B
Net income +13.7%/yr
FY22 $3.3B
FY23 $3.5B
FY24 $4.5B
FY25 $4.9B
FY26 $5.5B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +11.3 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.1 %

of which total revenue +7.0 % · buybacks/dilution +2.0 %

EBIT margin −0.7 %
Tax rate +2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.5 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

TJX screens 56% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →

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The TJX Companies Inc · Fair Value
$84.95 −56%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "The TJX Companies Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/TJX

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Apparel Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 70 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −36% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 61% · Top 25%
Return on assets 14% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 9% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 12% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 9% · Above median
Dividend yield (TTM) 1.3% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.18× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 25.7× · Pricier than median
P/B 16.75× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.77× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 34.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 18.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 3.30× · Pricier than 75% of peers

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 28
FUTURE46 · sector 19
PAST100 · sector 29
HEALTH91 · sector 100
DIVIDEND27 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 46/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX 240.90 PLN 189.78 PLN −21%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$37.20 HK$15.24 −59%
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $228.55 $118.41 −48%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $258.56 $143.65 −44%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,990 ₹709.49 −76%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $120.81 $299.63 +148%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$140.07 C$70.30 −50%
The Gap, Inc GAP $20.60 $36.44 +77%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $82.95 $92.88 +12%
Boot Barn Holdings BOOT $160.74 $128.55 −20%

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Frequently asked questions

Is The TJX Companies Inc (TJX) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $84.95 versus a price of $132.19, about −36% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of TJX?
Our model-based fair value for The TJX Companies Inc is $84.95 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $132.19.
What is the quality score of TJX?
The TJX Companies Inc has a Quality Score of 70/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of The TJX Companies Inc (TJX)?
The TJX Companies Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $61.6B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of TJX?
The net profit margin of The TJX Companies Inc is about 9.4%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.4% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does The TJX Companies Inc pay a dividend?
The TJX Companies Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 1.33% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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