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Ross Stores Inc (ROST) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $74.9B · ISIN US7782961038

What is Ross Stores Inc really worth?

RS Ross Stores Inc logo Ross Stores Inc ROST · US
Price$231.67
Fair Value$118.41
Upside−48.9%
Quality76/100

A strong business, but trading 96% above our fair value of $118.41.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +12.7 %/yr)
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow
✓Wide moat 69/100

Risks

!Thin margins · 9.7% net margin
!Mixed vs. peers (6/15)
!Weak on dividend: 14 out of 100

For context

·0.72% dividend yield
Evidence: High Range $88.32 – $148.49

Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 4 days ago

Share price −7.7% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • A high-quality business (quality 76/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
  • The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($148.49). The favourable scenario is already priced in.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$255.23 $67.28 Fair Value $118.41 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $67.28 – $255.23 · fair‑value band $88.32 – $148.49 · the $231.67 price screens above the $118.41 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Ross Stores Inc (ROST) currently trades at $231.67, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $118.41, implying the stock looks roughly 95.7% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 76/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the DCF Models group reads highest at a median of $142.77 per share, and 0 of the 26 models we run sit above the $231.67 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $12.92, and 26 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Ross Stores Inc generated revenue of $23.8B at a net margin of 9.7%. Revenue grew 20.6% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.0%. Net debt stands at $618M. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $88.32 (bear case) to $148.49 (bull case); at $231.67, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 2% below its 52-week high and 87% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −49%, ROST screens richer than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.26 per share, which is 2.8 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF best evidence $94.17 $150.09 $241.01 79
Growth DCF $94.64 $148.61 $235.61 77
Owner Earnings $80.17 $126.65 $202.23 75
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF best evidence $94.17 $150.09 $241.01 79
Owner Earnings $80.17 $126.65 $202.23 75
5Y Revenue Exit $77.37 $118.50 $172.03 72
5Y EBITDA Exit $93.28 $149.69 $217.61 75
5Y P/E Exit $105.37 $173.40 $247.91 70
10Y Revenue Exit $80.58 $120.55 $176.94 66
10Y EBITDA Exit $92.83 $142.77 $213.30 68
10Y P/E Exit $100.69 $159.66 $237.48 63
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $45.47 $174.70 $236.75 64
Lynch FV $42.64 $60.92 $79.19 61
PEG = 1.0 $42.64 $60.92 $79.19 57
EPV $70.83 $80.78 $89.48 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $15.12 $31.43 $49.86 66
DDM Multi-Stage $15.12 $26.50 $32.99 66
Multiples
P/E Multiple $110.33 $147.11 $183.89 63
P/S Multiple $63.83 $85.11 $106.38 58
P/B Multiple $57.87 $77.15 $96.44 55
EV/EBIT $125.09 $163.07 $201.05 66
EV/EBITDA $101.40 $131.48 $161.57 67
EV/Revenue $70.72 $96.26 $121.79 54
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $9.64 $12.92 $19.29 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $94.64 $148.61 $235.61 77
Rev-Margin DCF $77.37 $118.36 $168.44 72
Economic Profit
Residual Income $49.79 $73.09 $753.82 64
ROIC Compounder $73.82 $87.87 $102.77 72
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $79.40 $113.43 $147.46 67

Widest divergence: DCF Models ($142.77) versus Asset-Based ($12.92). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (79).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 32.4
P/S ratio 3.05 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $7.15 price ÷ EPS = P/E 32.4
Dividend yield 0.7% payout 23.2%
Net margin 9.4% FY2026
Return on equity 39.0% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 16.6% avg 5y
Operating margin 13.4% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $23.8B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +20.6% 3y avg +6.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +37.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $2.2B FY2026
Net debt $618M FY2026 · ≈ 0.3 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 76/100

Of which business quality 75 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 75

Profitability 80
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 55
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 56
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 88
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 67
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 73
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 66
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 92
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 100
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family.

Full company description

Ross Stores, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates off-price retail apparel and home fashion stores under the Ross Dress for Less and dd's DISCOUNTS brands in the United States. The company offers designer apparel, accessories, footwear, and home-fashioned products for the entire family. It sells its products to middle income households and households with lower to more moderate incomes. Ross Stores, Inc. was incorporated in 1957 and is headquartered in Dublin, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Ross Stores Inc reported revenue of $22.8B in FY2026 versus $18.9B in FY2022, a compound +4.7%/yr. Reported net income was $2.1B in FY2026, compounding +5.6%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 92/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$22.8B
Latest YoY
+7.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+6.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+12.7%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (40Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+8.3% (7.6 + 0.7)
Revenue +4.7%/yr
FY22 $18.9B
FY23 $18.7B
FY24 $20.4B
FY25 $21.1B
FY26 $22.8B
Net income +5.6%/yr
FY22 $1.7B
FY23 $1.5B
FY24 $1.9B
FY25 $2.1B
FY26 $2.1B
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +10.5 % p.a.
Revenue per share +9.2 %

of which total revenue +6.7 % · buybacks/dilution +2.3 %

EBIT margin −1.6 %
Tax rate +2.1 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

ROST screens 96% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →

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Ross Stores Inc · Fair Value
$118.41 −96%Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Ross Stores Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/ROST

Recent news

External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.

Peer Group

Apparel Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 76 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside −49% · Bottom 25%
Return on equity (TTM) 39% · Top 25%
Return on assets 12% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 13% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 21% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.7% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.17× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 32.4× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/B 12.10× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 3.15× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 33.9× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 20.8× · Pricier than 75% of peers
PEG 2.76× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE0 · sector 28
FUTURE100 · sector 19
PAST100 · sector 29
HEALTH92 · sector 100
DIVIDEND14 · sector 59

VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.

Insider activity: 42/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX 240.90 PLN 189.78 PLN −21%
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $135.12 $84.95 −37%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$37.20 HK$15.24 −59%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $258.56 $143.65 −44%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,990 ₹709.49 −76%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $120.81 $299.63 +148%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$140.07 C$70.30 −50%
The Gap, Inc GAP $20.60 $36.44 +77%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $82.95 $92.88 +12%
Boot Barn Holdings BOOT $160.74 $128.55 −20%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Ross Stores Inc (ROST) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Sep 1, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $118.41 versus a price of $231.67, about −49% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of ROST?
Our model-based fair value for Ross Stores Inc is $118.41 (as of Sep 1, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $231.67.
What is the quality score of ROST?
Ross Stores Inc has a Quality Score of 76/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Ross Stores Inc (ROST)?
Ross Stores Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $23.8B (latest available figure, as of Sep 1, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of ROST?
The net profit margin of Ross Stores Inc is about 9.7%, meaning it keeps roughly 9.7% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Ross Stores Inc pay a dividend?
Ross Stores Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.72% relative to its recent price (as of Sep 1, 2026).
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