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Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) Fair Value & Analysis

Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $4.9B · ISIN US0994061002

What is Boot Barn Holdings Inc really worth?

BB Boot Barn Holdings Inc logo Boot Barn Holdings Inc BOOT · US
Price$147.36
Fair Value$128.55
Upside−12.8%
Quality54/100

A solid business, but trading 15% above our fair value of $128.55.

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Strengths

✓Healthy Growth (revenue 5y +20.3 %/yr)
✓Solidly profitable · 10.0% net margin
✓Low debt · generates free cash flow

Risks

!Trails peers (5/15)
!Moderate moat 57/100
!Weak on valuation: 16 out of 100
!Weak on dividend: 1 out of 100
Evidence: High Range $60.19 – $181.98

Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026

From 26 valuation models · updated 22 days ago

Share price −9.8% over the past month.

What runs behind every stock

26 valuation models 8 families, DCF to NCAV 37 quality factors margins, balance sheet, cashflow, debt 6 AI factors moat, what no ratio measures 2,000+ data points verified, per stock, median

69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →

What matters now

  • The model range is unusually wide ($60.19 to $181.98). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
  • Solid but not exceptional quality (54/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.

Price vs Fair Value (5 years)

$207.98 $51.49 Fair Value $128.55 Jun 2021 Sep 2026

White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

How to read this chart

60‑month range $51.49 – $207.98 · fair‑value band $60.19 – $181.98 · the $147.36 price screens above the $128.55 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.

Full chart & analysis →

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Analysis

Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) currently trades at $147.36, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $128.55, implying the stock looks roughly 14.6% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 54/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Growth Earnings group reads highest at a median of $181.13 per share, and 8 of the 26 models we run sit above the $147.36 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $29.11, and 18 of the 26 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.

Over the trailing twelve months, Boot Barn Holdings Inc generated revenue of $2.3B at a net margin of 10.0%. Revenue grew 18.7% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 18.4%. Net debt stands at $632M. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026

Our scenario range runs from $60.19 (bear case) to $181.98 (bull case); at $147.36, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high and 11% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −13%, BOOT screens cheaper than that median.

Fair Value models

This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $3.17 per share, which is 2.5 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.

Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.

Model Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. Evidence
Highest evidence
FCF DCF $47.86 $93.31 $204.72 74
EPV $58.59 $69.21 $78.36 74
Growth DCF $46.17 $99.15 $179.69 74
All 26 models by family
DCF Models
FCF DCF $47.86 $93.31 $204.72 74
Owner Earnings $47.70 $103.89 $208.20 71
5Y Revenue Exit $52.59 $110.29 $193.25 69
5Y EBITDA Exit $82.08 $175.89 $301.84 72
5Y P/E Exit $89.11 $191.52 $317.65 68
10Y Revenue Exit $48.32 $103.50 $197.89 63
10Y EBITDA Exit $70.31 $152.62 $293.67 64
10Y P/E Exit $75.01 $164.33 $307.62 60
Earnings-Based
Graham-Dodd $50.61 $298.39 $415.51 63
Lynch FV $84.67 $120.95 $157.24 61
PEG = 1.0 $84.67 $120.95 $157.24 57
EPV $58.59 $69.21 $78.36 74
Dividend Discount
Gordon GGM $1.01 $2.01 $3.05 67
DDM Multi-Stage $1.01 $1.74 $2.12 67
Multiples
P/E Multiple $122.81 $163.75 $204.69 63
P/S Multiple $66.84 $89.12 $111.40 58
P/B Multiple $94.90 $126.53 $158.17 55
EV/EBIT $124.43 $168.79 $213.15 66
EV/EBITDA $103.40 $140.75 $178.09 67
EV/Revenue $53.74 $80.48 $107.22 53
Asset-Based
NCAV (Graham) $21.73 $29.11 $43.45 54
Growth DCF
Growth DCF $46.17 $99.15 $179.69 74
Rev-Margin DCF $52.59 $107.61 $184.70 70
Economic Profit
Residual Income $47.86 $67.17 $279.55 64
ROIC Compounder $67.49 $99.54 $131.78 71
Growth Earnings
Growth-Adj P/E $126.79 $181.13 $235.47 67

Widest divergence: Growth Earnings ($181.13) versus Dividend Discount ($1.74). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (74).

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Key figures & financial health

P/E ratio 20.0
P/S ratio 2.01 P/E × margin
EPS (TTM) $7.35 price ÷ EPS = P/E 20.0
Dividend yield 0.1% payout 1.4%
Net margin 10.0% FY2026
Return on equity 18.4% TTM
More key figures
Profitability
Return on assets (EBIT) 14.3% avg 5y
Operating margin 10.6% TTM
Growth
Revenue (TTM) $2.3B TTM
Revenue growth (YoY) +18.7% 3y avg +10.8%
EPS growth (YoY) +18.4%
Balance sheet & cash flow
Free cash flow $126M FY2026
Net debt $632M FY2026 · ≈ 5.0 yrs of FCF

Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.

Quality Score breakdown

Overall quality 54/100

Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 21

Profitability 58
Margins and returns on capital today
Quality Growth 47
Are margins and returns improving?
Cashflow 39
Earnings quality: real cash, not paper profit
Fin. Strength 74
Balance sheet, leverage, solvency risk
Investment 24
Disciplined investing over empire-building
Low Volatility 21
Calm price path (market factor)
Momentum 23
Price trend over the last 3–12 months (market factor)
52W Momentum 16
Distance to the 52-week high (market factor)
Net Issuance 80
Buybacks instead of dilution

Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.

All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.

About the company

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. operates specialty retail stores in the United States and internationally. The company's lifestyle retail chain engages in the sale of western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories for men, women, and kids.

Full company description

Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. operates specialty retail stores in the United States and internationally. The company's lifestyle retail chain engages in the sale of western and work-related footwear, apparel and accessories for men, women, and kids. It offers denim, western shirts, cowboy hats, belts and belt buckles, rugged footwear, outerwear, overalls, shirts, safety-toe boots, hats, flame-resistant and high-visibility clothing, and western-style jewelry and accessories, as well as gifts and home merchandise. The company provides its products under the Ariat, Cinch, Cody James, Dan Post, Durango, Horsepower, Idyllwind, Justin, Kimes Ranch, Laredo, Levi's, Miss Me, Montana Silversmiths, Moonshine Spirit, Resistol, Shyanne, Stetson, Tony Lama, Twisted X, Wrangler, Brunt, Carhartt, Cody James Work, Georgia Boot, Hawx, Thorogood, Timberland Pro, Wolverine, Rank 45, Cody James Black 1978, Gibson, Cleo + Wolf, and El Dorado brand names. It sells its products through various e-commerce platform, including websites, mobile app, and third-party marketplaces, as well as retail stores under the Boot Barn brand name. The company was formerly known as WW Top Investment Corporation and changed its name to Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. in June 2014. Boot Barn Holdings, Inc. was founded in 1978 and is based in Irvine, California.

Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.

Revenue & earnings trend

FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years

Boot Barn Holdings Inc reported revenue of $2.3B in FY2026 versus $1.5B in FY2022, a compound +10.9%/yr. Reported net income was $226M in FY2026, compounding +4.1%/yr from FY2022.

Growth Quality 95/100
Revenue growth appears healthy and is supported by profitability and cash-flow quality.
Latest Revenue (FY 2026)
$2.3B
Latest YoY
+17.9%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (3Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+10.8%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (5Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+20.3%
Avg. revenue growth/yr (13Y) ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump.
+19.1%
Value creation/yr (5Y) ⓘEarnings growth per share (CAGR 5 years) plus dividend yield: value created per share and year.
+29.6% (29.5 + 0.1)
Revenue +10.9%/yr
FY22 $1.5B
FY23 $1.7B
FY24 $1.7B
FY25 $1.9B
FY26 $2.3B
Net income +4.1%/yr
FY22 $192M
FY23 $171M
FY24 $147M
FY25 $181M
FY26 $226M
Character of growth · EPS growth decomposed (2015-2026) +32.1 % p.a.
Revenue per share +13.1 %

of which total revenue +15.4 % · buybacks/dilution −2.0 %

EBIT margin +7.7 %
Tax rate +2.4 %
Residual (interest, one-offs) +5.8 %

Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).

BOOT screens 15% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →

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Boot Barn Holdings Inc · Fair Value
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Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Boot Barn Holdings Inc Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/BOOT

Peer Group

Apparel Retail · 103 stocks

How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.

Quality Score 54 · Below median
Fair Value upside −13% · Below median
Return on equity (TTM) 18% · Above median
Return on assets 8% · Top 25%
Net margin (TTM) 10% · Top 25%
Operating margin (TTM) 11% · Top 25%
Revenue growth 19% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (TTM) 0.1% · Bottom 25%
Debt / equity 0.31× · Higher than 75% of peers

Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper

P/E (TTM) 20.0× · Pricier than median
P/B 3.71× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/S (TTM) 2.17× · Pricier than 75% of peers
P/FCF 38.7× · Pricier than 75% of peers
EV/EBITDA 13.6× · Pricier than median
PEG 1.72× · Pricier than median

Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)

Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.

VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
This stock
VALUEFUTUREPASTHEALTHDIVIDEND
Sector peers
VALUE16 · sector 28
FUTURE94 · sector 19
PAST74 · sector 29
HEALTH85 · sector 100
DIVIDEND1 · sector 59

Insider activity: 40/100

Values & ESG

Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.

None of the checked exposures detected

Similar stocks

10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).

Stock Price Fair Value vs Fair Value
Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX 240.90 PLN 189.78 PLN −21%
The TJX Companies, Inc TJX $135.12 $84.95 −37%
Fast Retailing Co 6288 HK$37.20 HK$15.24 −59%
Ross Stores, Inc ROST $228.55 $118.41 −48%
Burlington Stores, Inc BURL $258.56 $143.65 −44%
Trent Limited TRENT ₹2,990 ₹709.49 −76%
lululemon athletica inc., LULU $120.81 $299.63 +148%
Aritzia Inc ATZ C$140.07 C$70.30 −50%
The Gap, Inc GAP $20.60 $36.44 +77%
Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN $82.95 $92.88 +12%

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Frequently asked questions

Is Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Aug 13, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $128.55 versus a price of $147.36, about −13% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of BOOT?
Our model-based fair value for Boot Barn Holdings Inc is $128.55 (as of Aug 13, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $147.36.
What is the quality score of BOOT?
Boot Barn Holdings Inc has a Quality Score of 54/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the revenue of Boot Barn Holdings Inc (BOOT)?
Boot Barn Holdings Inc reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about $2.3B (latest available figure, as of Aug 13, 2026).
What is the net profit margin of BOOT?
The net profit margin of Boot Barn Holdings Inc is about 10.0%, meaning it keeps roughly 10.0% of revenue as net income. Based on the latest reported figures.
Does Boot Barn Holdings Inc pay a dividend?
Boot Barn Holdings Inc currently shows a dividend yield of about 0.07% relative to its recent price (as of Aug 13, 2026).
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