The Gap, Inc. (GAP) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $7.4B · ISIN US3647601083
What is The Gap, Inc. really worth?
The Gap, Inc.
GAP · US
A solid business, but trading 11% above our fair value of $20.04.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 18, 2026
From 24 valuation models · updated 17 days ago
Fair value updated Aug 18, 2026, revised from $36.44 to $20.04 (−45.0%) since Aug 13, 2026. Share price +8.2% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- A fairly wide model range ($14.12 to $26.88) leaves room in how you read the outcome.
- The price sits in the upper half of our model range, so the margin of safety is thin.
- Read the verdict with care: some models are missing inputs, so the estimate scatters more than usual.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $6.64 – $28.66 · fair‑value band $14.12 – $26.88 · the $22.32 price screens above the $20.04 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 18, 2026.
Analysis
The Gap, Inc. (GAP) currently trades at $22.32, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $20.04, implying the stock looks roughly 11.4% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 59/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $43.39 per share, and 20 of the 24 models we run sit above the $22.32 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $7.07, and 4 of the 24 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, The Gap, Inc. generated revenue of $15.4B at a net margin of 6.3%. Revenue grew 1.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 27.6%. Net debt stands at $3.0B. Fundamentals as of Aug 18, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $14.12 (bear case) to $26.88 (bull case); at $22.32, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 23% below its 52-week high and 22% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −37% fair-value upside, at −10%, GAP screens cheaper than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $1.09 per share, which is 5.4 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 24 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($43.39) versus Asset-Based ($7.07). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (81).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 18, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 60 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
The Gap, Inc. operates as an apparel retail company in the United States, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands.
Full company description
The Gap, Inc. operates as an apparel retail company in the United States, Canada, Japan, Taiwan, and internationally. The company offers apparel, accessories, and personal care products for men, women, and children under the Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta brands. The company offers its products through company-operated stores, franchise stores, websites, and third-party arrangements, as well as licensing partnerships. It has franchise agreements to operate Old Navy, Gap, Banana Republic, and Athleta in Asia, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East, and Africa. The Gap, Inc. was incorporated in 1969 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
The Gap, Inc. reported revenue of $15.4B in FY2026 versus $16.7B in FY2022, a compound −2.0%/yr. Reported net income was $816M in FY2026, compounding +33.6%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue −0.6 % · buybacks/dilution +1.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
GAP screens 11% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Gap Inc. to Participate in the Goldman Sachs Global Consumer & Retail Conference
- Gap (GAP) Could Be 16% Undervalued As Higher Guidance Lifts The Debate
- Gap Up on Leadership Shift; Shein's Market Debut | Stock Movers
- Gap taps Coach's Reed Krakoff for new handbag line
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 40/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 18, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX | 240.90 PLN | 189.78 PLN | −21% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $135.12 | $84.95 | −37% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$37.20 | HK$15.24 | −59% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $228.55 | $118.41 | −48% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $258.56 | $143.65 | −44% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,990 | ₹709.49 | −76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $120.81 | $299.63 | +148% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$140.07 | C$70.30 | −50% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $82.95 | $92.88 | +12% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $160.74 | $128.55 | −20% |
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