Fast Retailing Co (6288) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · HK · Market cap HK$1.3T
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 26 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from HK$15.37 to HK$15.21 (−1.0%) since Aug 6, 2026. Share price −4.3% over the past month.
A strong business, but screening 60% overvalued on our models.
What matters now
- A high-quality business (quality 75/100), yet the market already pays well above fair value. Quality at a full price, with little margin of safety.
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (HK$19.02). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range HK$11.00 – HK$42.54 · fair‑value band HK$11.24 – HK$19.02 · the HK$37.82 price screens above the HK$15.21 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Fast Retailing Co (6288) currently trades at HK$37.82, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is HK$15.21, implying the stock looks roughly 59.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 75/100 (high quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bear case: priced above our estimate, the market already discounts strong expectations. Bull case: above-average quality can justify a premium, the entry price still matters most (evidence: high).
Over the trailing twelve months, Fast Retailing Co generated revenue of HK$3.7T at a net margin of 13.1%. Revenue grew 14.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 20.6%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of HK$239B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from HK$11.24 (bear case) to HK$19.02 (bull case); at HK$37.82, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 9% below its 52-week high and 66% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at -44% fair-value upside, at -60%, 6288 screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 26 models by family
Widest divergence: DCF Models (HK$371.85) versus Asset-Based (HK$49.63). Highest evidence: Growth DCF (80).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 74 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 77
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. operates as an apparel designer and retailer in Japan and internationally. The company operates through UNIQLO Japan, UNIQLO International, GU, and Global Brands segments. It manufactures and retails clothing for men, women, children, and babies.
Full company description
Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. operates as an apparel designer and retailer in Japan and internationally. The company operates through UNIQLO Japan, UNIQLO International, GU, and Global Brands segments. It manufactures and retails clothing for men, women, children, and babies. The company operates stores and franchises under the UNIQLO, GU, PLST, Theory, COMPTOIR DES COTONNIERS, J Brand, and PRINCESSE TAM.TAM brand names. It sells its products through online; and provides real estate leasing services. The company was formerly known as Ogori Shoji Co., Ltd. and changed its name to Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. in September 1991. The company was founded in 1949 and is headquartered in Yamaguchi, Japan.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Fast Retailing Co reported revenue of HK$3.4T in FY2025 versus HK$2.1T in FY2021, a compound +12.4%/yr. Reported net income was HK$433B in FY2025, compounding +26.4%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +7.5 pp · buybacks/dilution +4.8 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
6288 screens 60% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Uniqlo operator Fast Retailing's Q3 profit jumps 45.7%, raises forecast
- A Look At Fast Retailing (TSE:9983) Valuation After Strong Recent Share Price Momentum
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 109 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX | 246.10 PLN | 189.40 PLN | -23% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $152.61 | $84.95 | -44% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $248.25 | $118.41 | -52% |
| Burlington Stores, Inc BURL | $353.63 | $143.65 | -59% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,990 | ₹709.49 | -76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $120.87 | $299.63 | +148% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$140.07 | C$70.30 | -50% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.96 | $36.44 | +74% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $79.43 | $92.88 | +17% |
| Metro Brands Limited METROBRAND | ₹943.80 | ₹311.41 | -67% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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