Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) Fair Value & Analysis
Consumer Cyclical · US · Market cap $20.6B · ISIN US1220171060
What is Burlington Stores Inc really worth?
Burlington Stores Inc
BURL · US
A solid business, but trading 80% above our fair value of $143.65.
Strengths
Risks
Fair value as of: Sep 5, 2026
From 25 valuation models · updated today
Share price −29.7% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case ($225.12). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- The model range is unusually wide ($69.17 to $225.12). The outcome hinges heavily on assumptions, so read the point estimate with caution.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (57/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $109.78 – $372.19 · fair‑value band $69.17 – $225.12 · the $258.56 price screens above the $143.65 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). 1 fiscal year is left out: there the valuation rested on only a fraction of the usual models. Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 5, 2026.
Analysis
Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) currently trades at $258.56, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $143.65, implying the stock looks roughly 80.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 57/100 (solid quality), in the Consumer Cyclical sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $164.80 per share, and 0 of the 25 models we run sit above the $258.56 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $19.24, and 25 of the 25 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, Burlington Stores Inc generated revenue of $11.9B at a net margin of 5.2%. Revenue grew 14.1% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 39.1%. Net debt stands at $4.8B. Fundamentals as of Sep 5, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $69.17 (bear case) to $225.12 (bull case); at $258.56, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 27% below its 52-week high and 18% above its 52-week low, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Consumer Cyclical peers we cover trades at −21% fair-value upside, at −44%, BURL screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 7 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly $5.76 per share, which is 4.0 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 25 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($164.80) versus Dividend Discount ($5.27). Highest evidence: FCF DCF (76).
Notify me when BURL reaches fair value
Put BURL on your watchlist. We get in touch as soon as price and fair value meet or the trend turns.
Set up alert →Free, no payment details. Unsubscribe anytime in one click.
Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 5, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 29
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded merchandise in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby and beauty merchandise products.
Full company description
Burlington Stores, Inc. operates as a retailer of branded merchandise in the United States and Puerto Rico. The company offers fashion-focused merchandise, including women's ready-to-wear apparel, menswear, youth apparel, footwear, accessories, home furnishings, toys, gifts, and coats, as well as baby and beauty merchandise products. It operates stores under the Burlington Stores, and Cohoes Fashions brands in Washington D.C. and Puerto Rico. The company was founded in 1972 and is headquartered in Burlington, New Jersey.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
Burlington Stores Inc reported revenue of $11.6B in FY2026 versus $9.3B in FY2022, a compound +5.5%/yr. Reported net income was $610M in FY2026, compounding +10.5%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +8.3 % · buybacks/dilution +1.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
BURL screens 80% overvalued. Compare with Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Burlington (BURL) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Transcript
- Burlington (BURL) Will Reinvest Its $55M Tariff Refund. Can Lower Prices Reaccelerate Comparable Sales?
- Burlington Stores Seen Continuing Strong Earnings Growth, UBS Says
- Burlington Stores Positioned for Market-Share Gains, H2 Sales Upside, BofA Says
Peer Group
Apparel Retail · 103 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Apparel Retail median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Insider activity: 46/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Apparel Retail stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 5, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| Industria de Diseño Textil, S.A ITX | 240.90 PLN | 189.78 PLN | −21% |
| The TJX Companies, Inc TJX | $135.12 | $84.95 | −37% |
| Fast Retailing Co 6288 | HK$37.20 | HK$15.24 | −59% |
| Ross Stores, Inc ROST | $228.55 | $118.41 | −48% |
| Trent Limited TRENT | ₹2,990 | ₹709.49 | −76% |
| lululemon athletica inc., LULU | $120.81 | $299.63 | +148% |
| Aritzia Inc ATZ | C$140.07 | C$70.30 | −50% |
| The Gap, Inc GAP | $20.60 | $36.44 | +77% |
| Urban Outfitters, Inc URBN | $82.95 | $92.88 | +12% |
| Boot Barn Holdings BOOT | $160.74 | $128.55 | −20% |
Compare Burlington Stores Inc with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
Explore undervalued stocks
More undervalued Consumer Cyclical stocks →
Try a ready-made strategy
Pick a strategy and jump into the live analysis with that exact screen applied.
Discover tools
Frequently asked questions
Is Burlington Stores Inc (BURL) overvalued or undervalued?
What is the fair value of BURL?
What is the quality score of BURL?
What is the revenue of Burlington Stores Inc (BURL)?
What is the net profit margin of BURL?
Does Burlington Stores Inc pay a dividend?
Watch Burlington Stores Inc in the live analysis
One click puts Burlington Stores Inc on your watchlist: fair value and trend at a glance, plus comparison, the diversification check and the 35,000+ stock screener. You can also try 14 days of Pro there, no card.
Watch for free →Zero risk: nothing is ever charged. Your watchlist is yours, with or without an account.