Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc (TCBI) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · US · Market cap $4.5B
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc
TCBI · US
Fair value as of: Aug 13, 2026
From 4 valuation models · updated yesterday
Fair value updated Aug 13, 2026, revised from $98.31 to $107.34 (+9.2%) since Jul 16, 2026. Share price −1.1% over the past month.
A solid business, currently priced close to our fair value.
What matters now
- The price sits close to our fair value, market and models broadly agree here, little valuation tension.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $43.66 – $107.74 · fair‑value band $80.51 – $134.17 · the $100.83 price screens below the $107.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 13, 2026.
Analysis
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc (TCBI) currently trades at $100.83, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $107.34, implying the stock looks roughly 6.5% fairly valued today. The Quality Score stands at 68/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: trading below our estimate, it may offer upside if the fundamentals hold. Bear case: a low price can be a value trap when quality is weak or the data is thin (evidence: high), always confirm before acting.
Over the trailing twelve months, Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc generated revenue of $1.2B at a net margin of 28.7%. Revenue grew 16.9% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 10.2%. The balance sheet holds a net cash position of $1.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 13, 2026
Our scenario range runs from $80.51 (bear case) to $134.17 (bull case); at $100.83, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 7% below its 52-week high and 37% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at 47% fair-value upside, at 6%, TCBI screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small.
All 4 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples ($98.31) versus Asset-Based ($55.71). Highest evidence: Residual Income (76).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 13, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 58 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 64
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
About the company
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers.
Full company description
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc. operates as the bank holding company for Texas Capital Bank, is a full-service financial services firm that delivers customized solutions to businesses, entrepreneurs, and individual customers. The company offers commercial banking; consumer banking; investment banking solutions, including capital markets, mergers and acquisitions, and syndicated finance, as well as financial sponsor coverage, capital solutions, and institutional services; and wealth management services, such as investment management, financial planning, lockbox and insurance, securities-based lending, estate planning, and business succession, as well as philanthropic, trustee and executor, custom credit, and depository services. It also provides deposit accounts, analyzed accounts, commercial card, SBA and business loans, packaged solutions, and merchant services; liquidity and investments, working capital, international trade and payment, and treasury and credit products; and commercial real estate, homebuilder and community, and mortgage finance. In addition, the company offers payables and receivables management; online and mobile banking; term loans and lines of credit, equipment finance and lease, acquisition finance, and asset-based lending; private wealth advisory solutions; and checking and savings accounts, debit and credit cards, and certificates of deposit, as well as ETF and funds management services. Further, it provides financial institution money market accounts and loan syndication products; commercial loans for financing for working capital, organic growth, and acquisitions; real estate term and construction loans; mortgage warehouse lending services; treasury management, trust, and advisory and escrow services; and letters of credit. The company operates in Austin, Dallas, Fort Worth, Houston, and San Antonio metropolitan areas of Texas, as well as in California and New York. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Texas Capital Bancshares, Inc reported revenue of $2.0B in FY2025 versus $987M in FY2021, a compound +19.3%/yr. Reported net income was $330M in FY2025, compounding +6.8%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +12.2 pp · buybacks/dilution −0.3 pp
Absolute contributions in percentage points per year; they sum to the EPS growth rate. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
Watch TCBI: get an alert when its fair value changes →
Recent news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- 3 Reasons to Avoid TCBI and 1 Stock to Buy Instead
- TCBI Q2 Earnings Beat on NII & Fee Income Growth, Expenses Up Y/Y
- Texas Capital anticipates Q3 net interest income of $265M-$270M with NIM of 3.20%-3.25%
- Texas Capital Bancshares Inc (TCBI) Q2 2026 Earnings Call Highlights: Strong Revenue Growth and ...
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1086 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Snowflake
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Insider activity: 78/100
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
ESG scores are not available for this stock yet. Values and ESG data are contextual and can differ between providers.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 13, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| PT Bank Central Asia Tbk BBCA | 6,350 IDR | 4,637 IDR | -27% |
| KB Financial Group 105560 | 168,100 KRW | 220,258 KRW | +31% |
| PT Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk BBRI | 3,110 IDR | 3,792 IDR | +22% |
| PT Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk BMRI | 4,130 IDR | 6,067 IDR | +47% |
| Banco Bradesco S.A BBD | 5,120 ARS | 8,400 ARS | +64% |
| Shinhan Financial Group 055550 | 103,800 KRW | 146,032 KRW | +41% |
| Hana Financial Group 086790 | 127,900 KRW | 210,506 KRW | +65% |
| Lloyds Banking Group LYG | 4,138 ARS | 8,275 ARS | +100% |
| Joint Stock Commercial Bank for Foreign Trade of Vietnam, VCB | 59,500 VND | 45,959 VND | -23% |
| Woori Financial Group 316140 | 33,000 KRW | 60,758 KRW | +84% |
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How we calculate Fair Value
Each company is valued through a stack of independent intrinsic-value models (DCF variants, residual-income, multiples and more), blended into one family-balanced consensus and weighted by how much trustworthy data backs it. A separate quality layer scores the fundamentals. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
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