Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IT · Market cap €120B · ISIN IT0000072618
What is Intesa Sanpaolo SpA really worth?
A solid business, but trading 19% above our fair value of €5.66.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Aug 30, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 6 days ago
Share price −0.4% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- Solid but not exceptional quality (61/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range €1.17 – €6.92 · fair‑value band €4.25 – €7.08 · the €6.74 price screens above the €5.66 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Aug 30, 2026.
Analysis
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA (ISP) currently trades at €6.74, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is €5.66, implying the stock looks roughly 19.0% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 61/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of €5.21 per share, and 1 of the 6 models we run sit above the €6.74 price. Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at €2.49, and 5 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is medium.
Over the trailing twelve months, Intesa Sanpaolo SpA generated revenue of €25.7B at a net margin of 36.8%. Revenue grew 6.0% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 14.0%. Net debt stands at €91.1B. Fundamentals as of Aug 30, 2026
Our scenario range runs from €4.25 (bear case) to €7.08 (bull case); at €6.74, the current price sits within that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades near its 52-week high and 52% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −10% fair-value upside, at −16%, ISP screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2025 figures, and about 8 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly €0.1238 per share, which is 2.2 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (€5.21) versus Asset-Based (€2.49). Highest evidence: Residual Income (72).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Aug 30, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 55 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 78
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. engages in the provision of various financial products and services in Italy, Central/Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. It operates through six segments: Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance.
Full company description
Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. engages in the provision of various financial products and services in Italy, Central/Eastern Europe, the Middle East, and North Africa. It operates through six segments: Banca dei Territori, IMI Corporate & Investment Banking, International Banks, Asset Management, Private Banking, and Insurance. The company offers lending and deposit products; private and commercial banking, corporate and transaction banking, structured finance, investment banking, public finance, and capital market services; life and non-life insurance and pension products; asset and wealth management services; private investments; and bancassurance products. It also provides industrial loans, leases, and factoring services, as well as digital banking services. The company serves individuals, small and medium-sized businesses, non-profit customers, corporates and financial institutions, public administration, private clients and high net worth individuals, and other customers. Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A. is headquartered in Turin, Italy.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2021 – FY2025 · reported fiscal years
Intesa Sanpaolo SpA reported revenue of €28.5B in FY2025 versus €22.4B in FY2021, a compound +6.2%/yr. Reported net income was €9.3B in FY2025, compounding +22.2%/yr from FY2021.
of which total revenue +3.5 % · buybacks/dilution −2.0 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
ISP screens 19% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- Is Intesa Sanpaolo (BIT:ISP) Still Undervalued Or Is Its Strong Run Already Priced In?
- MPS prepares twin bids for Banco BPM and Banca Generali in Intesa defense - FT
- SpaceX Surges as Intesa Reveals a $966 Million Stake
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Aug 30, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| HDFC Bank Limited HDB | $23.17 | $24.12 | +4% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | −21% |
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