HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) Fair Value & Analysis
Financial Services · IN · Market cap ₹12.6T (≈ $133B) · ISIN INE040A01034
What is HDFC Bank Limited really worth?
A solid business, but trading 59% above our fair value of ₹448.34.
Strengths
Risks
For context
Fair value as of: Sep 1, 2026
From 6 valuation models · updated 4 days ago
Share price −3.1% over the past month.
What runs behind every stock
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceable See the method →
What matters now
- The price sits above even our optimistic bull case (₹560.42). The favourable scenario is already priced in.
- Solid but not exceptional quality (50/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder.
- For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Price vs Fair Value (5 years)
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range ₹605.65 – ₹996.51 · fair‑value band ₹336.26 – ₹560.42 · the ₹712.10 price screens above the ₹448.34 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Sep 1, 2026.
Analysis
HDFC Bank Limited (HDFCBANK) currently trades at ₹712.10, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is ₹448.34, implying the stock looks roughly 58.8% overvalued today. The Quality Score stands at 50/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector. Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of ₹532.74 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the ₹712.10 price. Bear case: the Dividend Discount group reads lowest at ₹231.28, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Evidence for this calculation is high.
Over the trailing twelve months, HDFC Bank Limited generated revenue of ₹2.8T at a net margin of 26.8%. Revenue declined 1.8% year over year. It earns a return on equity of 13.8%. Net debt stands at ₹2.8T. Fundamentals as of Sep 1, 2026
Our scenario range runs from ₹336.26 (bear case) to ₹560.42 (bull case); at ₹712.10, the current price sits above that range. Bear and bull are the same models run on conservative and optimistic assumptions (margins, growth, valuation multiples), so a plausible valuation range, not a price target. The share trades about 30% below its 52-week high, currently below its 200-day average. For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −17% fair-value upside, at −37%, HDFCBANK screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
This estimate rests on fiscal year 2026 figures, and about 5 months have passed since. In that time the company retained roughly ₹13.71 per share, which is 3.1 % of the fair value. The fair value deliberately does not add this in: the models value reported figures, not a projection.
Each model estimates fair value its own way; the Fair Value above is the evidence-weighted, family-balanced blend. Evidence (0–100) measures how completely this model’s inputs are available: well-fed models carry more weight in the blend. The spread across models is intentional, each one stresses a different value driver; dividend models, for instance, come out structurally low when payout is small. Every input is real reported data, nothing guessed.
All 6 models by family
Widest divergence: Multiples (₹532.74) versus Dividend Discount (₹231.28). Highest evidence: Residual Income (68).
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Key figures & financial health
More key figures
Figures from reported company fundamentals · as of Sep 1, 2026. TTM = trailing twelve months.
Quality Score breakdown
Of which business quality 49 · Market factors (momentum, volatility) 39
Non-valuation factor families (profitability, growth, cashflow, financial strength, momentum …), each academically grounded. Valuation itself sits in the Fair Value and is deliberately excluded here to avoid double-counting.
All values are scores from 0 to 100 (100 = best against fixed, research-based bands), not percentages. The three market factors (momentum, 52-week proximity, low volatility) are displayed but carry zero weight in the headline number: market sentiment is not a business property.
About the company
HDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments.
Full company description
HDFC Bank Limited provides banking and financial products and services to individuals and businesses in India, Bahrain, Hong Kong, Singapore, and Dubai. The company operates through Treasury, Retail Banking, Wholesale Banking, Other Banking Business, Insurance Business, and Other segments. It offers savings, salary, current, rural, public provident fund, pension, and demat accounts; fixed and recurring deposits; and safe deposit lockers, as well as offshore accounts and deposits, and overdrafts against fixed deposits. The company also provides personal, home, car, two-wheeler, business, doctor, educational, gold, consumer, and rural loans; loans against properties, securities, mutual funds, rental receivables, and assets; loans for professionals; government sponsored programs; and loans on credit card, as well as working capital and commercial/construction equipment finance, healthcare/medical equipment, commercial vehicle finance, dealer finance, and term loans. In addition, it offers credit, debit, prepaid, forex, and kisan gold cards; payment and collection, export, import, remittance, bank guarantee, letter of credit, trade, hedging, and merchant and cash management services; and insurance and investment products. Further, the company provides short term finance, bill discounting, structured finance, export credit, loan repayment, custodial, and documents collection services; online, mobile, and phone banking services; unified payment interface, immediate payment, national electronic funds transfer, and real time gross settlement services; channel financing, vendor financing, reimbursement account, money market, derivatives, employee trusts, cash surplus corporates, tax payment, and bankers to rights/public issue services; and financial solutions for supply chain partners and agricultural customers. It operates branches and automated teller machines in various cities/towns. The company was incorporated in 1994 and is headquartered in Mumbai, India.
Company description, as reported by the company or data provider.
Revenue & earnings trend
FY2022 – FY2026 · reported fiscal years
HDFC Bank Limited reported revenue of ₹5.0T in FY2026 versus ₹1.7T in FY2022, a compound +31.1%/yr. Reported net income was ₹760B in FY2026, compounding +18.8%/yr from FY2022.
of which total revenue +30.9 % · buybacks/dilution −8.6 %
Annual growth per factor. These are factors, not summands: multiplied they give the EPS growth rate, added they do not quite. Start and end points are 3-year averages (details on hover).
HDFCBANK screens 59% overvalued. Compare with DBS Group →
Earlier news
External third-party headlines (Yahoo Finance, Reuters and others), not an editorial selection.
- HDFC Bank Q1 Earnings Call Highlights
- External review clears HDFC Bank of ex-chair’s governance claims
- HDFC Bank (HDB) Fell as Deposit Fell Short of Expectations
Peer Group
Banks - Regional · 1071 stocks
How this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.
Valuation Multiples vs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
Five quick dimensions, each 0 to 100: VALUE (fair-value potential), FUTURE (revenue growth), PAST (return on equity), HEALTH (low debt), DIVIDEND (yield). Green = this stock, grey = typical sector peer.
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
Values & ESG
Does this company touch areas you may want to avoid? The classification is inferred from sector and industry.
Similar stocks
10 more Banks - Regional stocks, each showing price versus our Fair Value estimate (as of Sep 1, 2026).
| Stock | Price | Fair Value | vs Fair Value |
|---|---|---|---|
| DBS Group D05 | 75.65 SGD | 40.48 SGD | −46% |
| China Merchants Bank Co 3968 | HK$47.96 | HK$76.51 | +60% |
| Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A ISP | €6.78 | €5.66 | −17% |
| BNP Paribas SA BNP | €102.56 | €144.64 | +41% |
| UniCredit S.p.A UCG | €84.71 | €77.62 | −8% |
| Mizuho Financial Group MFG | $10.74 | $9.69 | −10% |
| ICICI Bank Limited ICICIBANK | ₹1,443 | ₹835.21 | −42% |
| Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation O39 | 31.07 SGD | 19.80 SGD | −36% |
| CaixaBank, S.A CABK | €13.52 | €8.85 | −35% |
| The PNC Financial Services Group PNC | $242.22 | $192.40 | −21% |
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