Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) fair value: what the stock is really worth
As of Oct 21, 2026: fair value (intrinsic value) of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock $6.83, price $10.01, upside -31.8%, quality 64 out of 100. Rating: overvalued. Calculated from audited financials with 26 valuation models and 37 quality factors, updated daily.
69 individual criteria per stock, every one traceableSee the method →
Price vs Fair Value
White line = price, green steps = our fair value per fiscal year, dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
How to read this chart
60‑month range $1.84 – $11.36 · fair‑value band $5.63 – $9.91 · the $10.01 price screens above the $6.83 fair value. Green steps = our fair value per fiscal year (point-in-time, no hindsight). Dashed = 300-day average. As of Oct 21, 2026.
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Mizuho Financial Group, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in banking, trust banking, securities, and other businesses related to financial services in Japan, the Americas, Europe, Asia/Oceania, and internationally.
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It operates through Retail & Business Banking Company; Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Corporate & Investment Banking Company; Global Markets Company; Asset Management Company; and Others segments.
The company provides deposit products; syndicated, housing, and card loans; business matching services; management of retirement payments; and advisory services related to overseas expansions, and mergers and acquisitions-related services.
It also offers consulting services, including asset management and asset succession; payroll services; and sells lottery tickets issued by prefectures and ordinance-designated cities.
In addition, it offers fund management, underwriting of equity and bonds, risk hedging products; solutions on capital management, business and financial strategy; real estate services; advisory services and solutions, such as advice on financial strategy and proposals on investment products to financial institutions; and financial services that include funding support and public bonds underwriting.
Further, the company offers corporate finance and transaction banking services; sales and trading services; investment products; pension funds; and ALM and investment services, including stable capital raising and balance sheet management, as well as management of fixed income, equity, and other securities portfolios.
Additionally, it provides online banking, cash management solutions, currency transaction, trade finance, custody, yen correspondence settlement, and research and consulting services; trust, securitization and structured finance, and stock transfer agency; and private banking and information technology-related services.
Mizuho Financial Group, Inc. was founded in 2000 and is headquartered in Tokyo, Japan.
Stock analysis
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) currently trades at $10.01, while our model-based Fair Value estimate is $6.83, 31.8% below the price, so the stock looks overvalued today.
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Valuation
Bull case: the Multiples group reads highest at a median of $7.69 per share, and 0 of the 6 models we run sit above the $10.01 price.
Bear case: the Asset-Based group reads lowest at $3.68, and 6 of the 6 models stay below the price. Data coverage for this calculation is medium.
Scenario range: $5.63 (bear) to $9.91 (bull), the price of $10.01 sits above it. Bear and bull are the same models on cautious and optimistic assumptions, a range, not a price target.
Quality & growth
The Quality Score stands at 64/100 (solid quality), in the Financial Services sector.
Mixed Growth: Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. reported revenue of ¥9.5T in FY2026 versus ¥2.8T in FY2022, a compound +35.3%/yr. Reported net income was ¥1.3T in FY2026, compounding +25.7%/yr from FY2022.
Key figures
Market cap $124B Large · P/E ratio 13.7 · P/S ratio 1.91 · EPS (TTM) $0.7300 · Dividend yield 1.8% · Net margin 14.0% · Return on equity 12.5% · Return on assets (EBIT) 0.4%.
Competitive moat
Our AI-assisted moat analysis scores the competitive advantage at 68 out of 100 (low confidence).
What moves the price
The share trades about 12% below its 52-week high and 59% above its 52-week low, currently above its 200-day average.
For context, the median of 10 Financial Services peers we cover trades at −23% fair-value upside, at −32%, MFG screens richer than that median.
Fair Value models
Bear$5.63Fair Value $6.83Bull$9.91
Price $10.01 · Upside -31.8%
Model ⓘEach model values the company its own way (discounted cash flow, earnings, assets, dividends). The fair value above starts from their evidence-weighted blend, not from a single model. In cyclical trough or peak years, after dilution or a stock split it is adjusted afterwards, so it can sit above or below the models. Based on fiscal year 2026 figures (about 7 months old). Earnings retained since then ($0.4100 per share) are deliberately not added.Bear ⓘBear = the cautious scenario: the same model computed with conservative anchors (lower growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bull it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target.BaseBull ⓘBull = the optimistic scenario: the same model computed with favourable anchors (higher growth, margins and valuation multiples). Together with Bear it frames a plausible valuation range, not a price target. If a model's bull case is above four times its base value, the table shows that limit with a > sign (like the overall Bull above): beyond it no assumption holds.Coverage ⓘCoverage = how well-backed THIS model's estimate is for this stock (0–100): how complete and reliable its input data are, and how well the model fits the company. The final Fair Value is an evidence-weighted blend, so better-evidenced models count more. Green ≥70, amber 50–69, grey below 50.
Growth Quality ⓘGrowth is valuable only when reinvestment earns attractive returns (Aswath Damodaran): sustainable growth depends on return on capital, reinvestment and efficiency. Basis: total company revenue over the periods shown on the cards (3Y/5Y/all years), not per share, so a merger can show up as a growth jump; per-share earnings growth is in the value-creation card.86/100
Revenue is growing, but margins or cash flow do not fully confirm the trend.
Revenue growth 1 year
+10.4%
Revenue growth 3 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+24.8%
Revenue growth 5 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+26.9%
Start year 2021 (pandemic). Over 10 years: +12.4% a year
Revenue growth 23 years ⓘMeasures the company's TOTAL revenue from reported annual statements: compound average growth per year (CAGR) from the fiscal year 3, 5 or N years back to the most recent comparable fiscal year. Not per share: buybacks do not change this number, and a merger can appear as a growth jump. Per-share growth (which does include buybacks) is in the value-creation card.
+7.0%
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What shareholders gained per year (last 5 years), in JPY (mathematically smoothed) ⓘWhat the business itself delivers per year: earnings growth per share plus the dividend yield. This is what you get IF the market keeps valuing the stock the same way: it contains no assumption about the market changing its mind. Computed per share, so buybacks count and a merger does not pass as growth. For a company that pays no dividend it is pure earnings growth per share. Period: earnings growth per share as CAGR over the last 5 reported fiscal years (annual statements), plus the current dividend yield. The start value is the median of the three years around the start, so a single crisis year (a pandemic or a write-down) does not distort the rate. Smoothed = median of all growth paths between the years of the window (trend line on the logarithm of earnings per share): a single extreme year cannot distort the rate. The reported figure stays in the tooltip. Measured in JPY: this currency has depreciated against the euro and dollar over the long run, so part of the nominal rate is currency erosion that never reaches a EUR/USD investor.
+24.0%
Earnings growth per share plus dividend.
Earnings per share, growth per year+22.2%
Dividend (yield on the price)1.8%
Pace: 5 vs 10 years ⓘTwo data points, not a trend model: earnings growth per share over the last 5 fiscal years against the last 10. Labelled "steady" when both rates are within 3 percentage points of each other, otherwise picking up or flattening. Shown only when ten years of history exist.23.5% vs −7.7%, picking up
Profit margin 2021 to 2026 ⓘOperating margin then vs now, from reported annual statements. A falling margin after a boom year is the classic peak-earnings signal: the growth rate then leans on an inflated base.23% → 18%
2026 sits 99% above its own trend. The rate follows the median trend of the last 5 years, not that single year.
Pace: the 5-year rate starts in 2021 (pandemic)
Growth Forecast
Little optimism in the price
What the price assumes ⓘThis turns our valuation around: instead of asking what the share is worth, it asks what growth the current price requires. It uses the cash the company keeps after all spending (free cash flow), the same discount rate as our models, five years of growth, then slowing evenly to 2 % a year by year ten. Compared with the analysts' sales forecasts extended to the same five years (at least three analysts, for context only, it does not enter the Fair Value): within 3 percentage points counts as "in line" (amber), below that little optimism (green), above that a lot of optimism (red).
less than -40 %
The company could shrink this much every year for the next five years and today's price would still be justified.
What forecasts expect ⓘAnalysts publish sales forecasts for the next two fiscal years. For the years after that, growth slows evenly to 2 % a year by year ten (2 % is the long-run rate our models use). Projected years are marked as such.
−7.8%
Yearly sales growth analysts expect, extended to five years.
After inflation (figures in JPY, Japan: IMF forecast 2.1% a year to 2030, 1.3% from 2016 to 2025) that is about −9.7% a year for the forecasts.
News mood ⓘNews mood, the average tone of recent news (94 articles), rated against how stocks are usually covered. 🚀 Hype = unusually upbeat · 🙂 Positive = above average · 😐 Neutral = typical · 🙁 Negative = below average · 😨 Very negative = unusually downbeat. It reflects the tone of coverage, not our valuation.Negative
Recent news coverage is more negative than average.
AI conclusion: The business draws potential strength from its new Asia-Pacific supply chain finance push via the IFC facility yet its main weakness remains thin evidence of any durable competitive moat amid regulated and competitive margins.
Main risk: The new focus on emerging-market trade flows could raise credit exposure substantially, which would directly pressure loan quality and provisions within the regional transaction banking business.
Mizuho recently launched a one-billion-dollar risk-sharing facility with the IFC to expand supply chain finance for SMEs across Asia-Pacific markets. This builds on its global transaction banking platform and corporate client base. Our models see the stock as overvalued. Will the new focus on emerging-market trade flows lift returns more than it raises credit exposure?
Compare Mizuho Financial Group Inc. with another stock
Price, fair value, quality and upside side by side.
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Peer GroupⓘHow this stock ranks against its industry: the green marker is this stock, the band is the typical 25–75% peer range, and the tick is the median.Banks - Regional · 1053 stocks
Beats the industry median on 4/14 measures
Overall it trails its industry peers.
Valuation
Quality Score64 · Top 25%
Fair Value upside−31.8% · Below median
Profitability
Return on equity (12 months)12.5% · Above median
Return on assets0.4% · Bottom 25%
Net margin (12 months)29.1% · Below median
Operating margin (12 months)46.7% · Above median
Growth and dividend
Revenue growth (quarter YoY)35.0% · Top 25%
Dividend yield (12 months)1.8% · Below median
Balance sheet
Debt / equity1.85× · Highest 25%
Valuation Multiplesvs Banks - Regional median · lower = cheaper
P/E (12 months)13.7× · Pricier than median
P/B1.72× · Priciest 25%
P/S (12 months)4.13× · Pricier than median
Price / free cash flow40.2× · Priciest 25%
PEG1.59× · Pricier than median
Strength profile in five axes (Snowflake)
This stockSector peers
VALUE (fair-value potential)0· sector 13
FUTURE (revenue growth)100· sector 49
PAST (return on equity)50· sector 41
HEALTH (low debt)7· sector 85
DIVIDEND (yield)36· sector 52
VALUE 0: the price sits above our fair-value range.
For bloggers, editors and developers: paste this into your site or blog (a “Custom HTML” block in WordPress), it shows the current fair value and links back here. Free, plain HTML, and welcome. Full data streams (CSV/JSON) at /developers.
Cite: Fair Value Calculator (2026). "Mizuho Financial Group Inc. Fair Value". https://www.fairvalue-calculator.com/stock/MFG
Frequently asked questions
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) overvalued or undervalued?
As of Oct 21, 2026, our model estimates a fair value of $6.83 versus a price of $10.01, about −32% upside (overvalued).
What is the fair value of MFG?
Our model-based fair value for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is $6.83 (as of Oct 21, 2026), built from audited fundamentals. The current price: $10.01.
What is the quality score of MFG?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. has a Quality Score of 64/100. It measures business quality (profitability, growth, cash flow, balance-sheet strength, investment discipline, share issuance). Market factors such as price momentum and volatility do not enter the number; they are shown separately in the detail view.
What is the price target for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Our model-based price target is the fair value of $6.83 (as of Oct 21, 2026) from 6 valuation models. Cautious scenario $5.63, optimistic scenario $9.91. It is a calculation from audited fundamentals, not an analyst target.
What is the Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock forecast for 2026?
Our models put fair value at $6.83, about −32% upside versus a price of $10.01 (overvalued). Cautious scenario $5.63, optimistic scenario $9.91. The calculation is refreshed regularly with new filings.
What is the revenue of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. reported trailing-twelve-month revenue of about ¥4.7T (latest available figure, as of Oct 21, 2026).
Does Mizuho Financial Group Inc. pay a dividend?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. currently shows a dividend yield of 1.81% relative to its recent price (as of Oct 21, 2026).
What growth is priced into Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
For today's price to be fair in a discounted-cash-flow model, Mizuho Financial Group Inc. would have to grow free cash flow by less than minus 40 % per year for five years (discount rate 8.1 %, then slowing evenly to 2 % perpetual growth by year ten). Over the last 5 years revenue grew +26.9 % per year. As of Oct 21, 2026.
What discount rate (WACC) does the fair value of MFG use?
Our models discount Mizuho Financial Group Inc. at 8.1 %: a base by market capitalisation (large), damped by beta 0.39, country premium for USA. The same rate applies in all 26 models.
What is a reverse DCF?
A reverse DCF turns the usual calculation around. Instead of deriving a value from assumptions, it takes today's price as given and asks: what free-cash-flow growth would a company have to deliver for exactly this price to be fair? The result is not a forecast but the expectation already priced in. For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. that is less than minus 40 % per year a year over ten years, using the same discount rate (8.1 %) and the same formula as our fair value.
How much growth has Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) delivered so far?
Over the past 5 years revenue at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. grew +26.9 % a year. The price currently implies less than minus 40 % per year free-cash-flow growth a year. Comparing the two shows how much confidence is in the price: if it demands more than has been delivered, the business has to accelerate for the maths to work.
How fast is the sector of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) growing?
The median revenue growth in the sector is +9.2 % a year. That is the yardstick for the growth priced into Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (less than minus 40 % per year a year): it shows whether the expectation is within the usual range or beyond it.
What is the free cash flow yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The free-cash-flow yield on the price is 2.50 %: that much free cash flow Mizuho Financial Group Inc. produces per unit of market value. When it exceeds the discount rate of our models (8.1 %), the business already earns more than its cost of capital demands, and the price needs little additional growth.
What is the intrinsic value of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Intrinsic value and fair value mean the same thing: what the business is worth on its numbers, independent of the share price. For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. it is $6.83 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026), against a price of $10.01. It is the blended result of 6 valuation models (cash flow, earnings, asset, dividend).
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock overvalued or undervalued in 2026?
As of Oct 21, 2026, MFG trades above its calculated fair value: price $10.01, fair value $6.83, a gap of about −32% (overvalued). The calculation is refreshed with each new quarterly report, so the verdict can change during the year.
Is fair value the same as the market price of MFG?
No. The price is what the market pays today ($10.01); the fair value is what the company's own numbers justify ($6.83). For Mizuho Financial Group Inc. the two are $3.18 per share apart. That gap is exactly why we show both numbers side by side.
How much is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. worth?
The market values Mizuho Financial Group Inc. at about $124B (market capitalisation, as of Oct 21, 2026). Per share that is $10.01; our models calculate a fair value of $6.83 per share.
What do the bullish and bearish scenarios say about MFG?
Our models span a range for Mizuho Financial Group Inc.: cautious scenario $5.63, base $6.83, optimistic $9.91 per share (as of Oct 21, 2026, price $10.01). The range comes from different growth and margin assumptions, not from analyst opinions.
What is the P/E ratio of MFG?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. trades at a price-to-earnings ratio of 13.7 (as of Oct 21, 2026). A P/E on its own says little: it compares the price with ONE year of profit, while our fair value of $6.83 is built from several models across several years. Other multiples: PEG 1.6, P/B 1.7, P/S 4.1.
What is the PEG ratio of MFG?
The PEG ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.59 (P/E divided by earnings growth, as of Oct 21, 2026). That is above 1, so the growth is already paid for in the price.
How solid is the balance sheet of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Balance-sheet figures for Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (as of Oct 21, 2026): return on equity 12.5%, debt of 1.85 per unit of equity. They feed the Quality Score of 64/100, which measures business quality independently of the share price.
How far is MFG from its 52-week high?
Mizuho Financial Group Inc. trades at $10.01, about 12% below its 52-week high of $11.36 and 59% above the low of $6.30 (as of Oct 21, 2026). Distance from the high says nothing about value: that is what the fair value of $6.83 is for.
Which stocks are comparable to Mizuho Financial Group Inc.?
From the same area (Financial Services) we also value DBS Group, China Merchants Bank Co, UniCredit S.p.A, Intesa Sanpaolo S.p.A, among others. Each of them has its own fair-value calculation on this site using the same models, so the comparison is like for like.
Is Mizuho Financial Group Inc. stock attractive at the current price?
The data as of Oct 21, 2026: price $10.01, calculated fair value $6.83 (−32%), Quality Score 64/100, from 6 models. Whether that fits your horizon and risk tolerance is your call. We provide the calculation, not investment advice.
How is the fair value of MFG calculated?
We run Mizuho Financial Group Inc. through 6 models from four families: discounted cash flow, earnings models, asset and balance-sheet models, and dividend models. Every model gets the same audited fundamentals; the result is the weighted average of $6.83, with the spread shown as a cautious and an optimistic scenario.
Is it still worth investing in stocks now?
The global stock market currently sits 13.6 % above its aggregate fair value. Mizuho Financial Group Inc. itself currently trades above fair value. An expensive market is no reason to stay out and no reason to buy everything at once: keep a broad savings plan running, buy single stocks only with money you can do without, and hold part of your money liquid while the market is high. The full picture including sectors is on is it worth investing now.
What is the share price of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The closing price on Oct 21, 2026 was $10.01. Our model-based fair value is $6.83, about −32% upside (overvalued). We carry closing prices from our data provider, not a live tick.
What should I pay attention to with Mizuho Financial Group Inc. right now?
Solid but not exceptional quality (64/100) and above fair value, neither a clear bargain nor a standout compounder. For a financial, book-value and earnings-based methods matter more than a cash-flow DCF, which fits banks and insurers poorly.
Where does the earnings growth of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) come from?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. grew −3.9 % a year from 2015 to 2026. Broken into its drivers: revenue per share +3.4 %, EBIT margin −8.1 %, tax rate +0.4 %, residual (interest, one-offs) +0.7 %. The four rates multiply to the earnings growth rate, they do not add up. Start and end are three-year averages so a single exceptional year does not distort the result.
Key figures of Mizuho Financial Group Inc.
How large is the market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The market capitalisation of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is $124B. The stock-market value of the whole company: share price times number of shares. It is what the market asks for the entire business today.
What is the P/S ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The price-to-sales ratio of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.91 (P/E × margin). Price to sales: market value relative to yearly revenue. Useful when profit is thin or distorted.
What are the earnings per share of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. are $0.7300 (price ÷ EPS = P/E 13.7). Earnings per share over the last twelve months: total profit spread across every single share.
What is the dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The dividend yield of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 1.8% (payout 24.8%). Yearly dividend relative to the share price. 3% pays 3 per 100 invested. Below: how much of profit is used for it.
What is the net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The net margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 14.0% (fiscal year 2026). How much of every unit of revenue ends up as profit. 10% means 10 cents of profit per dollar of sales.
What is the return on equity of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The return on equity (ROE) of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 12.5% (last twelve months). Profit relative to shareholders' equity, how efficiently the company works with its owners' money.
What is the EBIT return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
On an EBIT basis the return on assets of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 0.4% (avg 5y). Operating profit (EBIT) relative to everything the company owns, as a multi-year average. It describes the business model rather than one good or bad year.
What is the operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
The operating margin of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is 46.7% (last twelve months). Profit from the core business (before interest and taxes) relative to revenue.
How fast is revenue growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Revenue at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is growing +35.0% versus a year earlier (3y avg +24.8%). How much revenue grew versus a year earlier (YoY). The 3-year average next to it puts the single year in context.
How fast are earnings growing at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG)?
Earnings per share at Mizuho Financial Group Inc. are growing +49.7% versus a year earlier. How much earnings per share grew versus a year earlier.
How much net debt does Mizuho Financial Group Inc. (MFG) carry?
The net debt of Mizuho Financial Group Inc. is ¥4.4T (fiscal year 2026, ≈ 9.0 yrs of FCF). Debt minus cash on hand. The note shows how many years of free cash flow could in theory pay it off.
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Oct 21, 2026